Football 
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Horse Racing Finding Value....at the End of the Football Season
Spring is in the air and summer is on the way. The clock is winding down and soon we will see league champions, the conclusion of relegation battles, league promotions and European qualification.
This article will look at what to consider in the final weeks of the football season, avoiding costly mistakes and keeping your wagering steady during a busy calendar.
#1 Beware the dead rubbers
When it comes to the final 5 or 6 games of the season, I avoid betting on any games where a team has no mathematical chance of a title, qualifying for Europe or being relegated.
Hope or fear needs to be a motivator and I avoid any dead rubber games (where both teams have nothing to play for).
If only one team has an incentive, I am more cautious with stakes, as history has shown that teams with nothing to play for, can sometimes spoil the party with the pressure off.
Also keep in mind the league rules. Some leagues such as Belgium and Austria have slightly different rules for their final run in. Some other leagues split into two for the final stretch of the season as well.
#2 Take trends with a pinch of salt
Beware of taking the season’s form into any remaining matches. This can often go out the window as teams lay siege in pursuit of achieving their goals.
High scoring teams may suddenly find the pressure too much to handle and low scoring teams might be forced into a more aggressive and adventurous style of play in desperation.
Doing even some analysis can pay dividends. In the English championship, for example, average goals per game were higher in May (3.0) than any of the preceding 4 months (approx. 2.5). Similar effects are found in the Spanish Segunda and Italian Serie B.
Take a look at some of the top European leagues and compare the average goals across the past 10 seasons:
English Premier League
- Jan: 2.7
- Feb: 2.7
- Mar: 2.7
- Apr: 2.7
- May: 2.9
French Ligue 1
- Jan: 2.4
- Feb: 2.5
- Mar: 2.5
- Apr: 2.8
- May: 2.7
German Bundesliga
- Jan: 3.0
- Feb: 2.9
- Mar: 2.9
- Apr: 3.0
- May: 3.3
Italian Serie A
- Jan: 2.8
- Feb: 2.6
- Mar: 2.7
- Apr: 2.8
- May: 3.1
Spanish Primera
- Jan: 2.8
- Feb: 2.7
- Mar: 2.6
- Apr: 2.7
- May: 2.9
What do you notice here? It’s clear that there is a rise in goals scored and is often the case in other leagues too. You might find the same effects in less known leagues too.
However, knowing this isn’t enough. If you have noticed this trend, it’s likely bookmakers have too. You still need to pick your moments.
#3 Don’t totally buy into ‘the narrative’
This contradicts what I’ve said earlier but it’s also important to find a balance.
Big games will have a lot of media attention, with games described as a ‘‘must win’. ‘Must win’ does not mean ‘will win’.
Don’t neglect your process. Look at the competing teams objectively first and see where the value lies ordinarily. Is one team outperforming their xg? Does one team have a strong home or away record?
Try to look at the game in isolation first before you apply ‘end of season’ context.
#4 Prepare for violence
A popular angle is to look for opportunities in the bookings/cards markets. Things can get heated at this stage of the season.
Look for teams that generally pick up a few bookings but with the hope that the extra pressure will increase their card count from their typical average.
This could give you some value as bookmakers will heavily weight averages in their pricing, ahead of the game context.
#5 Keep an eye on injuries and form
After such a long slog of a season, teams will be carrying injuries and there will be players who have dropped out of form at the wrong time, or vice versa.
Similarly, teams may rest players for less important matches with an eye on key upcoming fixtures. With such a congested fixture list and a variety of conflicting motivations, keeping an close eye on team line-ups is key to shrewd wagering in the concluding weeks of the football season.
#6 Don’t bet if you’re not sure
This sounds simple, but it’s hard not to be tempted to have a bet sometimes.
My process is one of a true sceptic. If there is any cause for elevated doubt in my bet then I will leave it.
Although that provides a potential advantage against the bookmaker as they will have that doubt too.
You don’t need to be betting on every game, even if both teams have something to play for. And if you’re trying too hard to find an angle in, there probably isn’t one in the first place.
