Everton’s Improved Attack Means it’s Time to Bet on Goals

David Moyes’ second stint as Everton boss has started with a bang. The Toffees are enjoying an excellent run of form, lifting them well clear of the Premier League’s bottom three. 

The most remarkable part of the turnaround at Goodison Park has been their attacking output. Everton look dangerous going forward and Scott Thornton has highlighted how punters can take advantage. 

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Beto Leads the Attacking Charge

Before Moyes’ arrival, Everton were scoring an average of 0.79 goals per game in the Premier League. The limited attacking output in the first half of the season means that they still have the fourth-lowest xG in the Premier League, but the numbers have drastically improved since David Moyes returned. During his eight league games in charge, Everton have scored an average of 1.88 goals per game. Only Liverpool and Chelsea have maintained a better scoring rate over the course of the season. 

The Toffees have been without several key attacking players of late. Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Dwight McNeil, Armando Broja and Iliman Ndiaye have all been sidelined through injury but that hasn’t meant that Everton have lacked cutting edge in front of goal. There is a newfound attacking intent in the squad and Beto has been one of the beneficiaries. The striker has scored five goals in his last five Premier League matches, which included a superb finish to open the scoring against Liverpool. 

Beto may have earned a lot of the plaudits, but several players have chipped in. Everton have had eight different scorers in Moyes’ nine league games in charge. The increase in attacking output has seen the Toffees score 50% of their league goals under the Scotsman despite him taking charge of just 30% of their matches.  

Everton’s defence has also continued to look solid. Sean Dyche placed a lot of emphasis on being difficult to beat. Before his sacking, the Toffees were conceding an average of 1.32 goals per league game. Defensive stability isn’t something that Moyes has had to sacrifice in pursuit of goals. Everton are conceding 0.19 fewer goals per game under Moyes than they were under Dyche. Their increasing confidence has made Jordan Pickford a real contender to clinch the Golden Glove. However, it is their improvement at the other end that has underpinned their recent success. 

Everton Poised for More Success Against Wolves

Next up for Everton, it’s Wolves, who have the fourth worst defensive record in the Premier League. They have conceded 56 goals and have the sixth-worst xGA in the division. The Old Gold have conceded in three of their last four home matches against the Toffees and this an Everton attack that looks far more dangerous than they have been heading into their most recent trips to Molineux. More worryingly for Wolves, they were beaten 4-0 in the reverse fixture back in December. Craig Dawson scored two own goals on that occasion but he is likely to be on the bench here. 

BETSiE is predicting a tight affair based on the data from the entire season. Therefore, we are backing Everton 0.0 on the Asian handicap, meaning we get our stake back should the match end in a draw. Moyes has been able to get his team overperforming their previous attacking output and will fancy themselves to get more goals than our in-house projection model has predicted here. The Toffees have scored in all three of their Premier League matches on the road since the change of manager and our bet has also won in all three. 

Everton’s next home game is a clash with West Ham. The Toffees have scored 11 goals in their last four league games at Goodison Park so we are backing them to score at least two when they square off against the Hammers. Like Everton, West Ham have also made a managerial change but they will face a team that is brimming with confidence. Moyes will likely have more options from the bench by the time this clash comes around. Calvert-Lewin, Armando Broja and Abdoulaye Doucoure could all be in contention. 

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