Everton vs Chelsea Prediction: Betting Preview

With both Manchester City and Arsenal now having dropped points in 50% of their fixtures despite only playing 16 games, Chelsea have seized the opportunity to challenge for the Premier League title by moving into 2nd place and just two points behind leaders Liverpool. 

They’re now 4.50 second favourites to win the league. Everton meanwhile have lost just two of their last 11 games but still remain just three points off the relegation zone. However, they do have a game in hand and as a result are fifth favourites for the drop at 4.50. The onus is firmly on Chelsea here.

Everton vs Chelsea Prediction 1: Enzo to entertain

England, Premier League, Sunday, December 22nd, 14:00 (UK)

After spending over a billion since Todd Boehly took over the club in June 2022, Chelsea finally seem to playing to their ability under Enzo Maresca. They’ve won 17 of 25 games across all competitions under the Italian, including seven games in a row to come into this match in fine form.

Their fine form is fully justified with their underlying numbers backing up their success. They’re controlling games with the 4th most possession (56.7%), averaging the 3rd most shots per-game (16.0) whilst only conceding the 5th fewest shots per-game (11.4). Despite only conceding the 5th fewest shots, they are the 3rd biggest overachievers defensively having only conceded 19 goals, yet 25.98 expected goals – an over performance of almost 7 goals. Goalkeeper Robert Sanchez is posting only the 14th best post shot expected goals – goals against figure of +1.0, so bad finishing from the opposition could come back to haunt them at some point.

After finishing 15th last season, Everton and Sean Dyche look to be treading water once again sitting 16th in the table. They got off to a terrible start to the season losing all of their opening four games but have bounced back with just two defeats in the following 11. However, they have only won three of them with scoring goals a real issue. They’ve failed to score in 5 of their last 6 games, meaning it’s just 14 goals in 15 games – the 2nd lowest in the league. They’re only having the 6th most shots with 12.1 per-game and the quality of their chances is badly lacking with them creating the lowest expected goals in the league with just 17.23. With Everton having the lowest average possession in the league with only 39.3%, expect Chelsea to monopolise the ball and thus control the game and have the majority of chances. The Toffees had just 23.4% possession at Arsenal last weekend, managing just two shots.

With the potential for one way traffic, it’s no surprise Chelsea are just 1.61 at Goodison Park. Over 2.5 goals is similarly priced at 1.66, but given Everton’s stubbornness, I’m not sure it will be an open game as those odds suggest. However, siding with Chelsea in some way makes sense and Enzo Fernandez looks a cracking bet at 7.0 to score anytime. Since the international break, the Argentinian World Cup winner has been on fire with 3 goals in his last 5 games. It’s no coincidence this has come as a result of being given further license to get forward and thus get shots away. Before the November international break, Fernandez had managed just four shots in six games – 0.67 per-game – and since then he’s had 10 shots – 2.0 per-game. With Chelsea to score Over 3.5 goals a shorter price at 6.0 than Enzo to score at 7.0, it just shows how much value there is in the £107M man to score.

• Everton vs Chelsea Prediction 1: Enzo Fernandez anytime goalscorer (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 7.0
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 3/10 (TRACKED BET)

Everton vs Chelsea Prediction odds via bet365 as at 12:00, December 18th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

Everton vs Chelsea Injuries, Team News and Possible Lineups Prediction: Defensive absentees for Maresca’s men

Chelsea will be without EURO 2024 winning left-back Marc Cucurella after his red card for a second yellow card against Brentford last weekend. Replacement left-back Ben Chilwell is currently out with a virus and might not be back in time, This adds to their other injuries issues of Wesley Fofana (thigh), Reece James (thigh) and Benoit Badiashile (other). Winger Mykhailo Mudryk has tested positive for a banned substance and has been provisionally suspended. Everton’s most creative player Dwight McNeil missed the game with Arsenal and is a doubt here. He’s the clubs top scorer (3) and has the joint most assists (3).

Everton possible starting lineup:
Pickford; Young, Tarkowski, Branthwaite, Mykolenko; Mangala, Gueye, Doucoure; Harrison, Calvert-Lewin, Ndiaye

Chelsea possible starting lineup:
Sanchez; Gusto, Adarabioyo, Colwill, Chilwell; Caicedo, Fernanadez; Madueke, Palmer, Sancho; Jackson

Match Stats: Chelsea juggernaut

• Chelsea have won their last 5 matches in the Premier League
• Chelsea have won 15 of their last 20 matches across all competitions
• There have been over 2.5 goals scored in Chelsea’s last 5 games in the Premier League
• Everton have failed to score in 5 of their last 6 matches in the Premier League
• Enzo Fernandez has scored 3 goals and assisted 7 in his last seven games

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