Dortmund Champions League Betting Tips: Value Despite Bundesliga Struggles

Last season’s Champions League finalists, Borussia Dortmund, are struggling domestically, sitting 10th in the Bundesliga with just one win in their last seven league matches.

While their Bundesliga top-four hopes are fading, could Dortmund still mount another strong Champions League campaign?

AC Milan Could Threaten Dortmund’s Top 8 Ambitions

Dortmund are currently trailing Bundesliga leaders Bayern Munich by 20 points and are seven points away from the Champions League spots held by Stuttgart. Their domestic away form has been dismal, with just one win from nine matches and a mere five points collected on the road.

Despite their struggles, Dortmund remain a value bet in the Champions League. Our in-house model gives them a 51% chance of finishing in the top eight during the league phase, which would secure them a spot in the round of 16 without the need for play-offs.

Currently ninth with 12 points, Dortmund are just behind LOSC Lille and Stade Brestois 29, both sitting one point ahead. However, AC Milan pose a threat, with a 54.8% projected chance of finishing in the top eight. Milan face tougher opponents in Girona and Dinamo Zagreb, while Dortmund have a relatively easier schedule with Bologna and Shakhtar Donetsk.

At odds of 1.60, backing Dortmund for a top-eight finish offers solid betting value.

Bundesliga Hopes Look Bleak

Dortmund’s Bundesliga top-four hopes appear slim, with current odds above 4.00 and a mere 12.3% chance of finishing in a Champions League spot. Our projections suggest they will average 1.64 points per game moving forward, only a modest improvement from their current 1.40.

Expected goals (xG) data suggests Dortmund deserve a higher league standing, with performances warranting fifth place rather than tenth. However, even in this best-case scenario, they remain six points off the top four.

Dortmund’s European Potential

Despite their Bundesliga woes, Dortmund remain a force in the Champions League. They have lost only three of their last 16 group-stage matches and have not suffered consecutive defeats since 2021.

Against Bologna on Matchday 7, they have a 41.8% chance of winning. The Italians are in strong form, with just one defeat in their last ten matches, but Dortmund’s European pedigree could shine through.

Dortmund have an unbeaten record in their last three matches against Italian opposition and have secured three clean sheets in their last four away games in Europe. However, their last clean sheet came against Club Brugge in mid-September, making a “Both Teams to Score” bet a sensible option.

A Value Bet as Germany’s Top Club

Focusing on their Champions League fixtures, Dortmund could outperform fellow Bundesliga clubs Bayer Leverkusen and Bayern Munich, who face tougher challenges against Atletico Madrid and Feyenoord. Odds of 7.00 for Dortmund to emerge as the top German club in the group stage offer an enticing betting opportunity.

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

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