Dominant PSG, Borussia and Bayern Are Still A Value Bet In Second Legs

Three of the Champions League play-off ties appear nearly decided, with Paris Saint-Germain, Borussia Dortmund, and Bayern Munich boasting over 98% chances of reaching the Round of 16 after convincing first-leg successes

Despite this, with a forecasted average of 3.22 goals expected in the return legs, and the additional financial incentives from UEFA and points for the national coefficient in UEFA rankings, these teams still have plenty of motivation to excel in their second-leg matches. 

European football expert Daniele Fisichella has analysed the numbers to suggest a betting strategy.

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.

PSG vs Brest: Will Paris Dominate Again?

PSG, projected to score 2.78 goals with an 82% chance of victory according to BETSiE, tops the statistics for Wednesday’s second-leg clashes. 

Luis Enrique’s side is priced at an average of 1.18 on the 1X2 market, the shortest odds for a Champions League match since their 7-2 win over Maccabi Haifa in October 2022. 

While betting on a PSG victory alone may not offer substantial returns, wagering on a large win could be a smart choice. 

PSG have won the first halves in four of their last five matches and remain undefeated against Brest across all competitions for 40 years. 

The Parisians have triumphed by the same 3-1 scoreline in their last two home encounters against Brest, who have failed to secure a clean sheet in their previous 20 visits and lost 18 of the last 19 meetings.

In the Champions League, PSG averages 18.3 shots per game, trailing only Bayern Munich’s 21.7. 

Remarkably, their home expected goals (xG) in the competition (2.49) exceed their Ligue 1 figures (2.34), where they hold a 21-point advantage over Brest. 

Given PSG’s scoring record in the first half of all three matches against Brest this season, they are likely to seek an early advantage once more.

Bayern Munich vs Celtic: Another Bavarian Masterclass Incoming?

With Germany and France ranked fourth and fifth in the UEFA country rankings, which determine the number of Champions League spots for next season, victories for PSG, Bayern Munich, and Borussia Dortmund are vital as they aim to close the gap on Spain and Italy, ranked second and third. 

This adds an extra layer of motivation for the German teams, notably Bayern, renowned for their relentless approach in settled ties. 

For instance, after winning 4-1 away in Rome against Lazio in 2021/2022, they followed with a 2-1 win at home. Similarly, they crushed Salzburg 7-1 after a 1-1 draw away the following year, and defeated Chelsea 4-1 at home in 2020 after a 3-0 triumph at Stamford Bridge.

Vincent Kompany’s side has won the Asian Handicap only twice this season (-2.25 vs Shakhtar Donetsk and -2.5 vs Dinamo Zagreb), but Celtic’s away record in the Champions League is hardly inspiring, with their last away win, excluding qualifiers, being a 3-0 success over Anderlecht in September 2017.

Borussia Dortmund vs Sporting CP: Can Dortmund Seal the Deal at Home?

BETSiE gives Borussia Dortmund a 50% chance of defeating Sporting Lisbon, yet under new manager Niko Kovač, their Champions League prospects remain promising. 

Kovač has a strong record in Europe, with eight wins, three draws, and just one loss in 12 matches (11 with Bayern). 

Dortmund has reached the Round of 16 in eight of the last ten campaigns and never lost a European home game by more than three goals. 

Despite suffering two 3-0 Champions League defeats at the Westfalenstadion, against Rosenborg (1999/00) and Juventus (2014/15), Sporting’s xG of 0.70 in the first leg is their lowest this season in Europe. 

The Portuguese side has lost four of the last five matches against Dortmund, and their struggles against German teams might continue, having secured just four wins in 22 games since 2000.

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