Does Tudor's appointment make Juventus a risky bet for top four?

After back-to-back defeats in Serie A, Juventus have decided to part company with their manager, Thiago Motta, who was hired only last summer. 

They have entrusted Igor Tudor with the task of steering the club through this turbulent season and achieving qualification for next year’s Champions League. The Croatian manager is a former Juventus player, having spent over seven seasons in Turin, and he takes over a club in mid-season for the eighth time in his career. 

Could he turn things around in just nine games? Our Italian football expert, Daniele Fisichella, examines the potential impact of Tudor’s appointment on the betting market.

Where did all go wrong for Motta?

Thiago Motta’s (pictured below) main shortcoming has been his inability to establish a strong connection with both the Juventus players and the club’s environment. 

The former Bologna manager, known for his firm and rigid approach to football, experimented excessively this season, ultimately confusing the players and failing to implement a clear style of play. 

He did not settle on an ideal starting eleven, changing his formation in 39 out of 42 games across all competitions. Ultimately, the numbers revealed the extent of the struggle: Motta’s win rate of 43% is the third-lowest ever for a Juventus manager, sealing his fate.

Italy’s most successful club has never had such few points at this stage of the season since 2010/11. They have drawn 13 times in Serie A so far, and by mid-February, they had been eliminated from all cup competitions. Despite more than 200 million euros spent in the transfer market, the team has not been truly competitive this season, finishing 20th in the Champions League table and appearing unable to react to setbacks.

Motta’s questionable in-game decisions, such as bringing on three defenders when Juventus were 3-0 down in their last match against Fiorentina and leaving Dusan Vlahovic on the bench, along with his unwillingness to adapt his coaching philosophy, have contributed to a subpar campaign. 

At the end of last season, Juventus intended to move on from Massimiliano Allegri’s defensive style. However, Motta’s arrival has not led to a more expansive approach. 

Juventus are merely sixth in Serie A for shots and seventh for expected goals and touches in the opposition area.

Motta’s style, even in his previous stint at Bologna, was far from gung-ho attacking; it focused more on controlling the ball and almost defending with possession. 

Unsurprisingly, Juventus are second for ball retention this season but only fifth for passes in the final third. The team also seems to have lost its ability to grind out results and win ‘ugly,’ a common trait under Allegri. This season, they have only won three matches by a 1-0 scoreline and have dropped nine points from winning positions, the second-worst record among the league’s top nine teams, behind only Atalanta, who dropped 10.

Last season’s experience might be crucial

Igor Tudor takes charge of a side currently sitting fifth in Serie A, just outside the Champions League qualification spots. The team still faces crucial away fixtures against Roma, Lazio—Tudor’s former team from last season—and Bologna. 

Juventus rank fourth in the league based on expected goals (xG) data, and according to BETSiE, they are projected to finish the season in fourth place. 

However, with only seven points projected to separate them from AC Milan, and given Roma’s impressive form in 2025, having secured 33 points out of a possible 39 in the last 13 games (nine more than Juve in the same period), a tight race is expected.

Tudor has the advantage of having navigated a similar scenario at Lazio last season, where he replaced Maurizio Sarri with nine Serie A games remaining. 

The Croatian manager won his first game in charge, a 1-0 success against Juventus, and amassed 18 points (an average of 2 points per game) by the end of the campaign, which saw Lazio finish seventh and qualify for the Europa League. 

During Tudor’s stint, Lazio were second in the form table, level with champions Inter, with only Atalanta collecting more points (22) than them.

Our projections suggest that Tudor could replicate last season’s average points per game tally, which would be enough for Juventus to end the campaign with 70 points.

Kolo Muani and Vlahovic set to play together

However, Tudor’s style of play is markedly different from Motta’s, emphasizing high pressing and playing with high intensity. 

Before Tudor’s arrival, Lazio’s PPDA (passes per defensive action) was 11.83, below the Serie A average. From his appointment to the end of the season, that figure improved to 9.56, trailing only Napoli and Verona.

Ideally, implementing such a system would require time, such as a summer pre-season, for the players to fully adapt. This presents a challenge for the former Marseille boss. So, what can we expect from Juventus moving forward?

Tudor’s preferred formation in recent times has been the 3-4-2-1, and the Old Lady has the players to fit that system. Vlahovic, who scored for Serbia against Austria, will see much more of the pitch time and possibly partner with Randal Kolo Muani.

Kenan Yildiz will also play a central role, ready to exploit more space in the attacking midfield, surprising defenders with his direction of dribbles—either cutting inside to aim for the goal or drifting wide to open space for teammates.

Most of the squad’s wingers, from Nico Gonzalez to Francisco Conceição and Samuel Mbangula, seem tailored to fit in an offensive trio. 

A great sense of adaptation will be needed to cover the entire wing, a task that Timothy Weah and, injury permitting, Andrea Cambiaso appear more suited for.

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