Does the New Manager's Bounce Really Exist?

It’s a cycle known throughout the football world. Results go awry and a manager is relieved of their duties. Someone new arrives and things start to pick up. Or at least that’s how we imagine it goes.

The New Manager’s Bounce is a part of the football vocabulary but does it stack up with reality? We’ll put it to the test this weekend in the Premier League. Three managers will take charge of their new teams for the first time.

Odds correct from bet365 as at 4:15 pm November 17th 2021. Odds may now differ.

Steven Gerrard’s Aston Villa take on Brighton, Dean Smith and Norwich take on Southampton and Newcastle take on Brentford with Eddie Howe at the helm for the first time. All three matches appear winnable on paper but should punters back the new bosses?

We’ve done the research to discover the impact of a new manager. We’ve looked only at mid-season managerial appointments in the Premier League. Our data goes back five seasons and looks at interim and caretaker appointments as well. In all, we’ve researched how 48 managers have got the sack or got started in their new positions.

Why do Premier League Clubs Sack their Managers?

We found a tipping point for when Premier League clubs generally sack their managers. When teams start picking up around 1 point per match, they don’t last much longer. Outgoing managers picked up an average of 0.56 PPG in their final five fixtures. A 2-1 defeat is the most common final scoreline before a boss departs and the club usually sits either 20th or 17th.

Whether they’re temporary or permanent appointments, 68.75% of outgoing managers have lost their final match in charge of their clubs. Only 8.33% – including Norwich’s Daniel Farke this season – won their final game.

Clubs tend to struggle in the five final matches before a manager is sacked. They conceded an average of 2.06 goals per match and scored just 0.77 times. That average match goal difference of -1.28 is enough to lose someone’s job.

Is the New Manager’s Bounce Real?

In short, yes, but it’s probably not as important as you think. There is a noticeable improvement in a new manager’s first match in charge. That win percentage goes up to 33.3%. New managers that arrive mid-season have lost 42.2% of their first games in charge. Not bad considering that most of these clubs are locked in relegation battles.

Clubs start scoring more goals and conceding fewer. They find the net an average of 1.24 times in the first match under the new boss. Defensive performance improves as well. Teams concede an average of 1.57 times in the new manager’s debut game. That goal difference changes to -0.33.

But then things start to stabilise. Performances improve over the course of five matches but not by a lot. That average tally of 0.56 points per game goes up to 0.69 points per match. That’s a low tally but it’s not just relegation-threatened clubs that sack their managers.

Thomas Tuchel instantly improved Chelsea’s results when he took over in January 2021. Chelsea went from 0.8 PPG in the final five matches under Frank Lampard to 2.6 in the first five under Tuchel.

But the German isn’t the only manager to massively improve his new side. Ole Gunnar Solskjaer at Manchester United and Craig Shakespeare at Leicester both turned their clubs’ chances around in 2018 and 2017 respectively. Both new bosses took maximum points from their first five matches in charge of clubs that had been struggling.

Other Factors that Explain The New Manager’s Bounce

The margins are so fine in Premier League football. It’s difficult to attribute a swift turnaround in results to a new incoming manager. Statistics play a role here. The average football club earns 1.3 points per match. After a spell of underperforming, things generally return to normal regardless of who’s at the helm.

There’s also the timing of these decisions. Managers tend to depart after a string of heavy defeats. Those usually come in tougher fixtures against better teams. The new manager will then arrive ahead of a much more palatable set of fixtures.

That has happened with Dean Smith at Aston Villa. They faced Chelsea, Manchester United, Tottenham, West Ham and Arsenal in his final six Premier League fixtures. Steven Gerrard will test his managerial skills against Brighton and Crystal Palace in his first two. Club’s decision-makers will rarely appoint a new boss ahead of consecutive trips to Stamford Bridge, the Etihad and Anfield.

Should I Bet on the New Manager’s Bounce?

We wanted to see how managerial changes affected things in the betting markets and whether punters could extract value from the merry-go-round. To learn this, we looked at mid-season permanent managerial appointments in the last five and a half seasons.

If our research is anything to go by then there is plenty of value backing the three new Premier League managers to win their first matches. Just don’t back them to win their second.

Odds correct from bet365 as at 4:15 pm November 17th 2021. Odds may now differ.

If you’d have backed at even stakes (i.e £1) every incoming manager to win their first game in charge in all competitions over the last five and a half years, you’d have made a profit of +9.14% on your total outlay. Backing them on the Asian handicap market had a 52.6% win rate.

That all changes for their second match. We saw a sharp decline in profitability and results when managers take charge for the second time. Backing each new manager to win their second match had profitability of -35.2%. That’s a 44% drop from one game to the next. The Asian handicap win rate drops to 43.4%.

13 permanent managers won their opening matches. Only 4 of those 13 went on to win their second.  It seems that the honeymoon period lasts about one match in the Premier League.

New Manager First Match Performance

Below we see the data for new permanent manager performance in their first matches in any competition club by club last five seasons. Odds are average odds to win the match in the 1X2 market.