Do the weekend's results make it a three horse race in Serie A?

This season’s Serie A is delivering one of its most thrilling campaigns in recent years as three clubs—Inter Milan, Napoli, and Atalanta—all battle for the Scudetto. 

A decisive factor in this race is the total number of matches: Inter face a demanding schedule of at least 15 games including the Champions League and Coppa Italia. 

Meanwhile, Napoli and Atalanta can exclusively focus on the 12 remaining league fixtures. 

Ahead of the top of the table clash between Napoli and the Nerazzurri, Italian football expert Daniele Fisichella has analysed the betting landscape. 

Low projected Scudetto tally favours Inter

For the first time since 30 August 2024 Simone Inzaghi’s men are leading the standings, thanks to a hard-fought victory against Genoa, followed by Napoli’s defeat against Como. 

The Nerazzurri have 12 points less in the table compared to last season, only Monza (-22) has a worse differential. 

But Inter Milan have had to manage a tough Champions League schedule and played, so far, 11 more games, in all competitions, than Napoli. 

Their calculated gamble on a lower-than-usual finish line for the Scudetto has thus far paid off, projecting a winning tally around 83 points—which would be the lowest since the 2019/2020 season. 

Despite suffering two defeats in the last four games, Inzaghi’s men have reasons to be optimistic. 

Approaching Saturday’s clash at the ‘Stadio Diego Armando Maradona’ with even a slender lead can be seen as a psychological victory for a team that, so far, has only collected 12 points in nine games played against Serie A’s top seven teams. 

According to BETSiE Inter’s chances of retaining the Scudetto have increased by 9% following last weekend’s results and currently stand at 68.3%. 

This makes the current odds of 1.75 (with an implied probability of 57.1%) still very valuable. 

Atalanta’s tough run is about to begin

What was presumed to be a two-horse race has transformed into a three-way contest, courtesy of Atalanta’s victory over Empoli which has brought them within three points of the Nerazzurri.

The upcoming weekend is a favourable one for La Dea, who will host Venezia and have the chance to claim a share of the top spot, at least temporarily. 

While being knocked out of both Coppa Italia and Champions League in quick succession still hurts, in Bergamo there’s a strong belief that last season’s Europa League winners can challenge for the Scudetto till the very end. 

But to do so the emotional and technical fragility witnessed in their recent stalemate against Cagliari, when they only produced 0.47 xG, cannot be repeated. 

Atalanta’s next fixtures are as tough as Inter’s ones, in fact Gasperini’s men will face all the teams in the top seven positions of the table between 9 March and Easter. 

Atalanta, affectionately known as La Dea, have faced a challenging run against Inter Milan, having lost their last seven meetings across all competitions and remaining winless in their previous 14 encounters.

This presents a daunting prospect, especially as their title ambitions hinge crucially on their upcoming home game against the reigning champions in three weeks’ time. 

However, with a projected 38.7% chance of finishing as runners-up, placing a bet on Atalanta to claim the title without Inter Milan could prove to be a shrewd move.

A cagey affair on Saturday suits Conte’s side

Napoli’s defeat at Como was particularly bruising, not only for the points lost but also for the lack of concentration displayed in such a critical moment of the season. 

Antonio Conte’s men are winless in the last four games, have got the worst attack among Serie A’s top five and are only eight for expected goals (38.39). 

How will Napoli rebound in this critical moment? 

The Neapolitans’ crisis partly stems from selling Kvaratskhelia to PSG, whose exit, combined with David Neres’ recent injury, exposed the team struggles to create scoring chances. 

It’s clear: Conte’s side must rediscover their early-season solidity to reignite their challenge, especially with dwindling returns from Romelu Lukaku whose contributions (nine goals from 9.79 xG, and four assists from 2.43 xA) have not met expectations.

Yet, dismiss Napoli at your peril. Their current projected chances to win the Scudetto stand at 20%, an 8% decrease from two weeks ago, but a huge increase from the beginning of the season when they had only a 3% chance of success, according to BETSiE. 

According to our projections, Saturday’s clash between Napoli and Inter is the most likely match of Serie A’s matchday 27 to end in a draw, with a 30.6% probability. 

At this stage, maintaining proximity to the leaders is crucial for Napoli, and securing even a point could be considered a positive outcome.

In fact, of the three title contenders, the Partenopei arguably have the more favourable run-in. 

Their final six fixtures are against teams currently positioned on the lower half of the Serie A table, setting the stage for a potentially smoother path in the race for the Scudetto.

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