Rasmus Højlund’s goal drought continues, with the Danish striker failing to find the back of the net since scoring a brace in Manchester United’s 2-1 victory over Viktoria Plzen in December 2024. 

This season, the 22-year-old centre-forward has managed just seven goals and two assists, contributing to United’s struggles in front of goal. The Red Devils currently rank 15th in Premier League attacking stats, with 34 goals—five fewer than at this stage last season (39). 

Our European football expert, Daniele Fisichella, delves into the numbers behind United’s and Højlund’s goal-scoring challenges.

Hard work but poor returns

Manchester United’s struggles in front of goal have been a persistent theme this season, and at the heart of this dilemma lies the enigma of their Danish centre-forward.

United are 14th in shots taken with an average of 16.39 per match, and hold the sixth-worst conversion rate at 7.4%. 

This marks a decline from last season when they were 8th for shots on goal and boasted a better (8.3%) conversion rate. 

But is this solely due to Højlund’s lacking his scoring boots, or are the Red Devils failing to play to the strengths of their young prospect? 

Højlund’s raw potential is evident through promising underlying data. 

Over the past year, he has averaged 0.37 non-penalty goals per 90 minutes. His clinical finishing ability was showcased early in 2024 when he netted seven goals in six matches, from mid-January to 18 February. 

Additionally, the striker demonstrated his prowess in European competitions, scoring five goals in six Champions League games last season and another five in the Europa League this term.

However, Højlund’s current plight reveals deeper team-related issues. Against Fulham, he received just four passes in 70 minutes, a stark indication of United’s failure to supply their main striker. 

Despite his tireless work rate—ranking second in off-ball runs per 90 minutes—only a quarter of his runs are into the box. 

This is a sharp contrast to his stats at Atalanta, where he took 2.63 shots per 90 minutes compared to just 1.11 this season with United. The decrease in attacking impetus points to a structural problem within the squad.

Furthermore, Højlund’s limited touches in the opposition box this campaign, averaging just three per game, reflect a system that does not cater to his strengths. 

At Atalanta, his conversion rate was a favorable 20.45% with an xG per 90 in the 97th percentile, whereas his current figures depict a drop to the 67th percentile in xG per 90 with a modest conversion rate of 15.38%.

Captain’s words might spur Rasmus on

Manchester United’s captain Bruno Fernandes has been quick to defend Højlund’s contributions, highlighting his role in a crucial penalty and providing an assist against Real Sociedad in the Europa League. 

“Strikers are often judged by goals, but Rasmus’s influence goes beyond that,” Fernandes stated. 

“In the dressing room, we see his movements and work ethic. We’re confident the goals will come once he gets that first breakthrough.”

Fernandes has been instrumental in creating opportunities with his final-third passes (629, second only to Manchester City’s Gvardiol) and has fourth highest chance-creation record in the league (60). 

Yet, the emphasis on wing play, with 74% of their attacks coming from the flank but only 16 crosses on average per game, the sixth negative record in the league, has meant that United’s approach often bypasses Højlund’s strengths as a central striker.

Amid his domestic challenges, Højlund’s form has not gone unnoticed on the international stage. 

Denmark’s manager Brian Riemer (pictured above) has included him in the squad for the upcoming Nations League quarter-final against Portugal. 

Although aware of Højlund’s dip in form at United, Riemer expressed confidence in his striker’s resilience and character. “I’ve been in this game a long time; ups and downs are part of football,” Riemer explained. “Rasmus’s form can turn around quickly, and we know what he is capable of.”

Red Devils are up for the cup

As he seeks to rekindle his confidence, the national setup might be an opportunity for Højlund to rediscover his scoring touch.

Furthermore, the guidance and mentorship from an experienced forward, likely to arrive at Old Trafford the summer, could alleviate the pressures Højlund faces and bolster his development.

Ruben Amorim’s side are currently projected by BETSiE to achieve their worst ever finish in the Premier League era, 14th in the table with 46.4 points, fourteen less than last season. 

With only 10 games to go, betting on United to finish in the top-half of the table, with odds that imply a probability of 14.3% appear very risky. 

In contrast the Red Devils are the favourites, according to our in-house tool, to lift the Europa League trophy. 

Here the numbers tell a completely different story from the English top flight, with United having the sixth-best attack for xG (21.81), and being second for shots (188). 

With a projected 62.4% chance of playing the final betting on them to take the pitch on 21 May at San Mamès in Bilbao carry an excellent betting value with odds of 2.50 (implied probability 40%). 

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