David Moyes Boosts Everton's Survival Chances Amid Premier League Relegation Battle

David Moyes has brought a much-needed boost to Everton, with the Toffees achieving back-to-back wins for the first time since April 2024. Their recent form under Moyes has eased relegation fears, and a win against Leicester this weekend could all but secure their Premier League survival. However, a loss would drag them back into the fight, with relegation odds currently at 11.

Our in-house projections show Everton with just a 2.9% chance of relegation, predicting them to finish the season on 41.4 points—one more than last year. Crucially, Everton still have home fixtures against the league’s three promoted clubs: Ipswich, Leicester, and Southampton. Three wins at Goodison Park could bring them to 32 points, likely enough to avoid the drop.

Wolves’ Relegation Odds Look Promising

Wolves are firmly entrenched in the relegation battle. They’ve lost four consecutive games, albeit against top-six opponents, and face a brutal schedule with matches against Aston Villa, Liverpool, and Bournemouth coming up. Wolves’ current odds for relegation are 2.37 (42.2% implied probability), aligning with our model’s projection of a 44.6% chance of going down.

Wolves’ inability to gain points in reverse fixtures against their upcoming opponents makes them a strong bet to finish in the bottom three. With a projected total of 32.6 points, they are expected to narrowly escape relegation, but a poor run of form could make this a valuable betting opportunity.

Ipswich’s Survival Hopes

Ipswich Town, sitting near the drop zone, could climb out with a win against Southampton this weekend. Despite only one home win this season, Ipswich’s odds of avoiding relegation (4.33) provide an interesting market for bettors. Their slightly favourable schedule and key clashes against fellow relegation candidates make them a viable option in the “not to be relegated” market.

Southampton’s Record Woes

Southampton are on track to finish bottom of the table, with our projections predicting 17.8 points—enough to avoid Derby County’s infamous 11-point season in 2007/08. While some bookmakers offer odds of 9.00 for Southampton to finish with fewer than 10 points, our model suggests this isn’t a valuable bet.

The Saints’ poor performances make their relegation all but certain, but bettors should look elsewhere for value, particularly in markets involving Ipswich and Wolves’ survival prospects.

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

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