Cups' underdogs in Europe: should you back or avoid them?

Domestic cup competitions across Europe’s top five footballing nations have reached a pivotal stage. This week, the finalists for the Coupe de France, DFB-Pokal, and Copa del Rey will be determined, while in Italy, the first legs of the Coppa Italia semi-finals are set to take place. 

These tournaments have already provided plenty of surprises, with underdog teams ousting more illustrious opponents to reach uncharted territory. But how should we approach these matches where one side is clearly favoured over the other? 

Who better to unravel these complexities than our European football expert, Daniele Fisichella?

The competition that keeps on giving

The magic of the Coupe de France is alive and kicking this season, showcasing some extraordinary giant killings.

Fifth-tier Bourgoin-Jallieu knocked out Lyon on penalties, while second-tier Dunkerque dispatched Lille, Champions League participants. Montpellier, former league champions, suffered a 4-0 thrashing at the hands of fourth-tier Le Puy Foot 43 Auvergne. 

This season’s semi-finals promise more drama as PSG, winners of seven of the last ten domestic titles, face Dunkerque, although the game will be hosted in Lille.

After a narrow shootout win over sixth-tier Stade Béthunois, Les Maritimes took down Auxerre and Brest to secure their spot in this glamour tie. Their battle against the Ligue 1 side will undoubtedly test the enduring magic of the Coupe de France. 

PSG have made on average 5.75 changes to their starting lineup in the Coupe De France this season, but with the league virtually wrapped up it’s unlikely they’ll underestimate Dunkerque. 

The Parisians hold a superb record in the cup competition, having failed to win within 90 minutes only six of their last 70 matches played. For those loving a giant-killing story probably PSG are not the team to beat against considering the last time they were knocked out by a side not playing in Ligue 1 was in 2013 at the hand of Evian (4-1 on penalties after a 1-1 draw), then playing in Ligue 2. 

A tricky task when relegation is looming

In the other clash AS Cannes, from the fourth tier, take on Stade de Reims, who are fighting to avoid relegation. 

Cannes is on the brink of becoming the first fourth-division side to reach the finals since Calais in 2000, having seen off three Ligue 2 teams—Grenoble, Lorient, and Guingamp—without yet encountering a Ligue 1 side. 

Les Dragons are not your usual lower ties side though. Previously hindered by a financial crisis, are now backed by The Friedkin Group, also owners of Everton and Roma, who are orchestrating a renaissance for the club. 

Reims, on the other hand, are in turmoil, 15th in the league, only two points above the relegation play-offs place, their results haven’t improved after Samba Diawara replaced Luka Elsner on the bench Luka Elsner. Saturday’s 3-1 victory against Marseille was Reims’s only success in their previous eight games, scoring just four goals and winning their away cup tie against Angers on penalties. Underlying data show that Reims have underperformed in front of goal in the Ligue, only scoring 29 times from 35.50 xG, but should have also conceded 10 more times (xGA 51.22) compared to what they did (41). 

Sharing a similar story with Reims are Empoli, who have been without a win in Serie A since 8 December and are currently embroiled in a relegation battle. While the French cup format favours lower-ranked teams by allowing them to host stronger opponents, the opposite is true in Italy. Serie A‘s top sides enter the Coppa Italia at later stages and enjoy the luxury of home ties. 

This setup often results in a lack of cup magic— the last time a second-tier team reached the final was Ancona in 1994, and they lost 6-1 on aggregate to Sampdoria. Yet, Empoli’s achievements become even more impressive under these circumstances.

Despite securing only four league victories all season, the Tuscan side have defied the odds by mastering the art of penalty shootouts against Fiorentina and Juventus. Their next challenge lies in Bologna who have yet to concede in this year’s competition, having defeated Monza 4-0 victory before upsetting Atalanta. 

Curiously Bologna have only managed to score one goal in all their last three meetings with Empoli, drawing the past two. 

However in 2025 only Roma averaged more points per game (2.67) than Bologna (2.15) in Italy’s top flight, while in the same period Empoli only collected four points conceding the second-most goals (26) behind bottom of the table Monza (27).

Furthermore, the Felsinei’s manager Vincenzo Italiano boasts an impressive knockout record, with a 49% win rate and only seven defeats in 32 matches.

In-form Arminia are eying a big scalp

Third-tier Arminia Bielefeld’s campaign has been nothing short of remarkable, as they have dispatched Bundesliga outfits Union Berlin, Freiburg, and Werder Bremen. Now, they prepare for a home semi-final clash against the reigning champions, Bayer Leverkusen.

Arminia, who were competing in the Bundesliga just three seasons ago, have equalled their best DFB-Pokal run from 2015, which ended with a heavy defeat to eventual winners Wolfsburg. 

If they manage to progress further this time, it might complicate their schedule, as BETSiE assign them a 80% chance of at least playing the promotion play-off and also have the Westphalian Cup final on the horizon.

The hosts have won seven and drew two of the past nine games, but they’ll face Leverkusen who, coming off a victory over Bayern Munich in the Round of 16, are favourites to reach the final against RB Leipzig.

Leverkusen have found their form with back-to-back victories, though they stumbled in their previous three matches, conceding seven goals. 

Xabi Alonso’s team has proven resilient away from home. In their last 11 away fixtures, Leverkusen have secured seven wins, two draws, and suffered just two defeats, both of which came in the Champions League.

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