Cup Shock Exit And Fixtures Congestion Suggest It's Time To Oppose Liverpool

In a stunning FA Cup tie, Liverpool suffered an unexpected exit at the hands of Plymouth Argyle, a team positioned 43 places below them in the English football ranking.

Sunday’s 1-0 defeat at Home Park was Liverpool’s third away defeat of the season in the last six trips in all competitions. 

Our European football expert Daniele Fisichella has analysed how the Reds’ challenging Premier League schedule ahead might present intriguing opportunities for bettors. 

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.

Plymouth Defeat Spells Danger For Slot

By making 10 changes to his lineup, the Dutch manager arguably underestimated both the competition and his opponents, which backfired embarrassingly. 

Despite fielding an experienced trio of attackers in Luis Diaz, Diogo Jota, and Federico Chiesa, Liverpool registered an open play expected goals (xG) of just 0.44, their lowest in any match under Arne Slot to date.

Slot’s tactics came into further question as he chose not to include key players like Mohamed Salah, Virgil van Dijk, and Andrew Robertson. 

The decision proved costly, ending Liverpool’s FA Cup run and marking their first elimination by lower-league opposition while topping the table since a loss to Brighton in January 1984. 

Plymouth became the first non-top-flight team to oust the Premier League leaders since Wigan’s triumph over Manchester City in February 2018. 

That City side quickly recovered by winning seven of their next eight Premier League fixtures, finishing the season with a record-breaking 100 points.

Liverpool, however, are not perceived to possess the same strength as Pep Guardiola’s team from seven years ago. 

In fact BETSiE predicts Liverpool to clinch the league title but with a projected 87 points, the lowest winning total since Leicester City’s 81-point triumph in the 2015/2016 campaign. 

So, could a congested fixture list, which sees Liverpool playing five Premier League games within 14 days, become a significant challenge?

Arsenal have reasons to keep faith

The Premier League leaders face a pivotal period, with a six-point lead over Arsenal that feels precariously slim. 

A busy schedule ahead, including the Merseyside Derby at Goodison Park on Wednesday, adds pressure. 

Should Liverpool falter, it may open the door for the Gunners, who could take control of the title race if they close the gap to three points before their trip to Anfield in early May. 

Arsenal concluded their last 14 matches of the 2023/24 campaign with 12 wins, one draw, and only one loss. 

Replicating that performance, especially with a fully fit defense, could see Arsenal amass 87 points. 

This might be sufficient to secure the title—assuming Liverpool encounters a rough patch beginning 12 February, when they face a demanding schedule of five league fixtures in 15 days, while Arsenal only face three.

For Liverpool to reach 87 points, they would need to gather 31 points from their remaining 15 matches, not accounting for a possible defeat by Arsenal.

This translates to 10 wins, one draw, and three losses, which would take the total league defeats for the season to four, very much in line with BETSiE’s predictions (3.7). 

Based on expected points Slot’s men only have five points advantage over their North London rivals. 

Therefore Mikel Arteta’s comeback remains feasible, especially since Liverpool still have challenging trips to the Etihad Stadium, Villa Park, and Stamford Bridge lined up.

Liverpool remain a relatively unknown force under Slot, with their reliability yet to be tested in adversity. 

Key to their success is Mohamed Salah, who has been involved in 61% of Liverpool’s league goals, a dependency that could pose risks. 

As teams rarely go a full season without encountering challenges, the coming weeks will be crucial. 

If Liverpool’s form dips, Arsenal are poised to capitalize and potentially overhaul the Reds in the title race.

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