Close, but No Goal: Unluckiest Team - Scottish Premiership

Goals. We all have them in life. Footballers certainly do. Goals generate an unparalleled thrill. Especially with eleven opposition players trying to thwart you from doing so. It’s probably the most difficult thing to do on a football pitch. Goals can elicit strong emotional responses from both players and fans. It represents a moment of joy, relief, or triumph. This emotional connection makes goals particularly memorable and engaging. Many goals are remembered for their sheer beauty and artistry. Whether it’s a long-range strike, a clever piece of skill, or a well-executed team move, goals make the beautiful game, the beautiful game. However, it’s notable that some teams struggle more than others in finding the back of the net.

To explore this aspect further, we conducted an in-depth analysis of the Scottish Premier League. Our research encompassed comprehensive match statistics from all Scottish Premiership games spanning from the 2013/2014 season to the 2022/2023 season. We meticulously compiled data on total shots, total goals, total shots on target, and conversion rates—both in terms of goals per total shots and goals per shots on target. This investigation aims to identify the unluckiest team in the Scottish Premier League in terms of goal scoring.

Our findings confirm that Partick Thistle F.C. holds the unfortunate title of being the unluckiest team in front of goal. The club have been members of the Scottish Professional Football League (SPFL) since its formation in 2013, having previously been members of the Scottish Football League. They have scored 204 goals from 1,732 shots, with a conversion rate of 11.77% for goals per total shots, and 27.30% for goals per shots on target. St. Mirren follows closely, demonstrating similar struggles in converting shots into goals, with conversion rates of 9.27% and 27.74% respectively.

Despite these challenges, Partick Thistle and St. Mirren’s experiences are not isolated within the league. Dundee have a slightly better efficiency with a conversion rate of 11.78% for goals per total shots and 28.84% for goals per shots on target. Inverness Caledonian Thistle FC, although now in the Scottish Championship, also had notable struggles during their time in the SPL, with conversion rates of 11.47% and 30.10% respectively.

In stark contrast, Celtic F.C. sit at the other end of the spectrum and are the most efficient in front of goal. Whilst, it could be argued that luck is created, it could also be argued that Celtic’s greater resources have enabled them to continuously acquire the best players in the league.

Since being founded in 1888, Celtic have managed to win 53 Scottish Premiership titles, with 17 of them coming after the turn of the 21st century. Since the 2013/14 season, Celtic have maintained impressive conversion rates of 14.04% for goals per total shots and 35.19% for goals per shots on target. This proficiency in front of goal is a key contributor to their 17 Scottish Premiership titles since the turn of the 21st century.

Rangers F.C. follow Celtic closely, with a conversion rate of 13.20% for goals per total shots and 35.05% for goals per shots on target, reinforcing the competitive edge of these two giants in Scottish football.

The data also offered a compelling insight into Aberdeen F.C.'s performance in goal-scoring efficiency. Known as The Dons, Aberdeen have managed to outscore teams like Motherwell and Livingston, netting a total of 532 goals. However, this achievement required a significant volume of attempts, totaling 4,165 shots. Of these, 1,602 were on target. This volume of efforts on goal translates into a goals to total shots conversion rate of 12.77%, and a goals to shots on target conversion rate of 33.20%.

While Aberdeen's overall goal tally is impressive, their conversion rates reveal a different aspect of their efficiency. In comparison, Motherwell boasts a slightly higher goals to shots on target conversion rate of 33.26%, and Livingston surpasses them with 33.83%. Rangers, a dominant force in the league, are only trumped by fierce rivals Celtic with a conversion rate of 35.05%.
These statistics not only highlight the varying fortunes of teams in front of goal but also underscore the fine margins that often separate success and disappointment in football. The ability to convert shots into goals will all be a vital determinant to a team's overall performance in the beautiful game.

Methodology

Overview

Our project aims to identify the "Unluckiest Teams" in the Scottish Premiership over ten seasons (2013/2014 to 2022/2023). The focus is on assessing teams' efficiency in converting shots on target into goals, providing insights into their goal-scoring effectiveness and potential aspects of 'unluckiness' or poor finishing.

Data Collection

We meticulously collected comprehensive match statistics for all Scottish Premiership games from the 2013/2014 season through to the 2022/2023 season.

Data Transformation

The raw data was processed to extract three critical metrics for our analysis:

• Shots: The total number of shots taken by a team.
• Shots on Target: The number of shots that were directed accurately towards the goal.
• Goals: The total number of goals scored by the team.

This data was then transformed and structured into an analyzable format, ensuring clarity and accuracy for subsequent calculations.

Calculate Conversion Rate

For each team, we calculated the Conversion Rate (CR). This metric is defined as the percentage of shots on target that resulted in goals, calculated using the formula:

CR=Goals Scored / Shots on Target × 100

This rate serves as a key indicator of a team's efficiency in converting goal-scoring opportunities.

Analyse Conversion Rate

Teams with a lower conversion rate were the primary focus of our analysis. A lower CR suggests that despite creating quality chances (shots on target), these teams are not as efficient in converting these opportunities into goals. This inefficiency could be interpreted as a sign of 'unluckiness' in goal scoring or possibly indicative of poor finishing skills.

Final Analysis

The project culminates in a comprehensive ranking of Scottish Premiership teams based on their conversion rates over the nine seasons. This ranking highlights the teams that have consistently struggled to capitalise on their goal-scoring opportunities, offering insights into patterns of performance and areas for potential improvement.

By combining rigorous data collection with detailed statistical analysis, this project sheds light on an often-overlooked aspect of football performance, offering a unique perspective on the Scottish Premiership teams' goal-scoring efficacies.

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