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Horse Racing Champions League: Team of the Semi-Finals
Champions League: Team of the Semi-Finals
The Champions League semi-finals get underway this week, and there are two intriguing matchups. We’ve delved into the data to bring you our combined team of the semi-finals and outlined some interesting betting angles.
First up, Arsenal welcome PSG to the Emirates. Neither of these sides have ever got their hands on this trophy, but their current squads are littered with quality. On Wednesday night, Inter face Europe’s most menacing attack in the form of Barcelona.
| Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Arsenal vs PSG – Achraf Hakimi To Score Or Assist | 3.40 |
| Arsenal vs PSG – Over 37.5 Tackles In The Match | 1.90 |
| Barcelona vs Inter – Both Teams To Score | 1.61 |
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Defence
| Goalkeepers | 1 | 2 | 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Save percentage | Yann Sommer (89.7%) | David Raya (86.2%) | Wojciech Szczęsny (75.8%) |
| Clean sheets (%) | Yann Sommer (63.6%) | David Raya (54.5%) | Inaki Peña (40%) |
| Post shots xG minus goals allowed | Yann Sommer (+3.5) | David Raya (+3.5) | Wojciech Szczęsny (+2.4) |
| Post shots xG minus goals allowed x 90 minutes | Wojciech Szczęsny (+0.41) | Yann Sommer (+0.32) | David Raya (+0.32) |
Inter have the best defensive record in the Champions League so it’s no surprise that their players feature heavily at the top of the defensive statistics. Yann Sommer is our starting goalkeeper and Alessadro Bastoni is one of the centre backs in our semi-final starting 11.
Simone Inzaghi’s side have conceded an average of 0.42 goals per game in this competition, 0.16 fewer than Arsenal, who have the second-best defensive record. They will be put to the test on Wednesday night as they gear up to face the best attack in Europe. Inter have kept clean sheets in six Champions League away games, but this will be their toughest test yet. Therefore, we are deciding against backing the Nerazzurri’s brilliant defence to maintain their form here.
PSG’s Achraf Hakimi and Nuno Mendes are the starting full-backs in this team. The pair could be the difference makers in their clash with Arsenal, and Hakimi’s odds to score or assist certainly appeal. The Moroccan scored Les Parisiens’ opening goal in their last game at Villa Park. He has also registered five assists in the Champions League thus far. Over the past 12 months, Hakimi ranks in the top 1% of full-backs for xAG (expected assisted goals). He could well have some joy with Gabriel Martinelli and Myles Lewis-Skelly keen to venture forward on his flank.
Midfield
| Midfielders | 1 | 2 | 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Successful take-ons | Vitinha (18) | Gabriel Martinelli (16) | João Neves (15) |
| Carries into the final third (total) | Vitinha (33) | João Neves (29) | Martin Odegaard (23) |
| Carries into the penalty area (total) | Gabriel Martinelli (19) | Martin Odegaard (13) | Lee Kang-In (17) |
| Pass completion (%) | Vitinha (93.4%) | Frenkie De Jong (93%) | João Neves (91.5%) |
| Expected assisted goals | Gabriel Martinelli (2.1) | Fabian Ruiz (1.9) | Vitinha (1.7) |
| Expected goals | Gabriel Martinelli (2.9) | Kai Havertz (2.6) | Hakan Calhanoglu (2.1) |
| Fouls Drawn | João Neves (14) | Vitinha (12) | Mikel Merino (11) |
PSG and Arsenal players dominate the midfield line-up. Their players feature highly in the key metrics, so we should see an intriguing battle when these two square off on Tuesday night. These two teams are also BETSiE’s favourites to win the competition. The in-house projection tool gives the PSG a 41.9% chance of winning the trophy and the Gunners a 30.8% chance.
Vitinha, João Neves and Martin Odegaard have all shown a willingness to carry the ball into opposition territory. The trio rank highly for successful take-ons, carries into the final third and carries into the penalty area. As a result, tackles look a good bet for the first of the semi-finals.
Luis Enrique has plenty of exceptional dribblers at his disposal. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Desire Doue, Bradley Barcola and Ousmane Dembele all rank in the top 10% for successful take-ons in Europe’s top five leagues over the last 12 months. This has led to PSG being the most-tackled team in the Champions League, forcing an average of 23.57 per game. Their matches in this competition have seen an average of 42.29 tackles overall.
Arsenal know they have the physicality to hurt PSG. Mikel Arteta will have seen the success that Villa has had using this approach in the last round of fixtures and could look to emulate it. The likes of Mikel Merino and Declan Rice will be keen to get stuck in, making it hard for Enrique’s flair players to have an impact. These two midfields have already battled each other in the Champions League this season. That match saw 51 tackles. We should see plenty once again.
This tackles tip, along with six other betting angles, are discussed in the latest podcast.
Attack
| Attackers | 1 | 2 | 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shots x 90 minutes | Ousmane Dembele (5.3) | Desire Doue (3.9) | Raphinha (3.9) |
| Shots on target x 90 minutes | Lautaro Martinez (2.2) | Desire Doue (2.1) | Ousmane Dembele (1.8) |
| xG (expected goals) | Robert Lewandowski (9.9) | Ousmane Dembele (7.5) | Raphinha (5.5) |
| Shot creating actions x 90 minutes | Ousmane Dembele (6.3) | Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (5.9) | Raphinha (5.7) |
| Goal creating actions x 90 minutes | Leandro Trossard (1.3) | Lamine Yamal (1.1) | Bukayo Saka (0.9) |
Barcelona have scored the most goals in the Champions League this season with an average of 3.08 per game, so it’s unsurprising that both Robert Lewandowski and Raphinha feature in our front three. However, the Polish striker is injured and will be unable to feature in the semi-finals.
Hansi Flick will be even more reliant on Raphinha here. The Brazilian has netted 12 goals and registered seven assists in just 12 European games this season. Having struggled at Barcelona under Xavi, the former Premier League winger has now emerged as a contender for the Ballon d’Or. The Blaugrana will fancy their chances of netting a couple of goals when they face Inter.
Barcelona’s attacking strength stems from Flick’s aggressive approach. The team press extremely high up the pitch. In fact, their PPDA (passes allowed per defensive action) of 6.7 is the lowest in Europe’s top five leagues. Winning the ball back close to the opposition goal means Barca’s forwards have plenty of opportunities to shine, but it will also leave spaces for Inter to exploit.
Simone Inzaghi’s side netted twice in both legs of their quarter-finals against Bayern Munich. They had to settle for just 38% possession in the second leg but were able to finish the game with an xG (expected goals) of 1.49. We should see chances at both ends when Europe’s best attack looks to impose themselves on an Inter side that are very capable on the counter.
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