Champions League Play-Offs Second Legs Poised for Goals Surge

As expected, the average goals per 90 minutes have dropped from 3.27 in the league stage to 2.75 in the first leg of the play-offs. 

However, the second leg of the Champions League play-offs is anticipated to boost the average goals tally again. 

While individual match odds for Over 2.5 Goals are low, combining eight selections in a single bet slip could be a shrewd move. 

Our European football expert Daniele Fisichella explains why.

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.

Combining eight bets can return a huge profit

To begin with, six out of eight (75%) play-off first leg games surpassed the 2.5-goal line. 

This marks an increase from the league phase matches (90/144; 62%). Furthermore, the 16 teams in the first leg of the play-offs collectively produced 22.29 expected goals, slightly more than the 22 actually scored, indicating that the relatively high goal tally—higher, for instance, than the current average in La Liga and Serie A—was no fluke. 

Most crucially for bettors, all eight second-leg ties are projected to exceed 2.5 goals, according to our in-house projection tool, BETSiE. 

Bayern Munich’s score projection of 2.99 is the highest among the 16 teams, with PSG, Atalanta, and Real Madrid also expected to score more than two goals in their home matches. 

The overall projected goal total for the second-leg ties stands at 25.76, increasing the average goals per game ratio to 3.22, slightly below the competition’s league phase average.

Moreover, second-leg ties, especially with the abolition of the away goal rule, can become high-scoring affairs, as demonstrated by last season’s Champions League Round of 16 second legs, which yielded 22 goals—a significant 36% increase compared to the 14 scored in the first legs. 

Examining the average expected goals (xG) for the upcoming matches further supports this notion: all eight ties have a combined average xG of over 2.78, with Real Madrid vs Manchester City having the highest combined average xG at 4.11.

High-scoring Dutch and Borussia on the charge

Team statistics also suggest that the second-leg ties will feature plenty of goals. 

Since last season, Feyenoord’s eight away matches in European competitions have produced 33 goals, averaging 4.12 goals per match. 

Additionally, Club Bruges, who face Atalanta, have scored in their last 17 away games across all competitions. 

The last time Nicky Hayen’s team failed to score on the road was on 4 August 2024, in a 1-0 defeat to Standard Liège, making the prospect of them finding the net in Bergamo very appealing. 

In Germany, the Both Teams To Score – Yes bet has come through in three of Dortmund’s four Champions League home games, a pattern mirrored by Sporting CP in three of their four away games in this competition. 

Lastly, PSV’s home game against Juventus is another potential high-scoring affair, as Both Teams To Score – Yes has been successful in seven of PSV’s nine Champions League matches, which have averaged 3.44 goals per game.

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