Champions League Matchday 8: Betting on teams that have nothing to lose

Nine of the 36 teams have already been eliminated from this season’s Champions League, knowing that even a win on Matchday 8 won’t be enough to keep their European dreams alive. However, pride and the desire to finish on a high could play a crucial role in their final performances.

This is particularly true for clubs with limited success in Europe’s top competition, such as Bologna and Girona, who are also unlikely to return next season due to their current domestic standings.

Young Boys vs. Red Star: Goals on the Cards

The clash between Young Boys and Red Star Belgrade promises goals, with the Swiss side still searching for their first victory of the campaign. Red Star have struggled on the road in the Champions League, having lost their last 12 away group-stage matches, with their most recent away victory dating back to 1992 against Panathinaikos.

For Young Boys, whose squad has an average market value of £2 million, securing a win would provide a significant financial boost, helping them attract better players and compete at a higher level in the future.

Both sides have the second and third-worst defences in the competition, respectively, and our in-house projection tool gives them equal chances of winning at 35.7%. With the projected goal line at 2.27, betting on a double chance and over 2.5 goals seems a smart option.

Girona to Test Arsenal’s Resilience

With a goal difference of +12, Arsenal are in a strong position to secure a top-eight finish, even if they suffer a defeat against Girona. The Gunners’ qualification is likely, as teams below them—Inter Milan, Monaco, Lille, and Feyenoord—are set to face off against each other.

Girona have scored just four goals in the competition and lost five of their six matches by a single goal. Keen to end their debut Champions League campaign positively, they’ll be looking to capitalize on their attacking potential.

Despite their struggles, underlying data suggests Girona should have scored 4.8 more goals than they have managed—marking the highest underperformance in the tournament. Arsenal, on the other hand, have yet to concede from open play, making for an intriguing contest.

Backing both teams to score could be a valuable bet, considering no team from Europe’s top five leagues has lost five consecutive matches without scoring—Girona are currently on four.

RB Leipzig Poised for Victory in Austria

RB Leipzig have been showing improved form, losing just once in their last five matches, including a late draw against Bayer Leverkusen at the weekend. According to our projections, Leipzig have a 71.3% chance of winning, making them the second most favoured away team on Matchday 8, behind only Real Madrid.

Sturm Graz, meanwhile, are struggling with match fitness. Their domestic league is still on winter break, and they have played only two competitive matches since 11th December, suffering heavy defeats—5-0 to Atalanta and 3-2 away to Lille.

Sturm Graz have lost six of their seven games in this season’s competition, averaging 0.74 expected goals (xG) per game, while conceding an average of 2.12 xGA (expected goals against). With Leipzig projected to score 2.20 goals, betting on a double chance for the Germans and over 2.5 goals could offer significant returns.

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

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