Champions League déjà vu ties offer good betting value

Ahead of the Champions League Round of 16 first legs, you may feel a sense of déjà vu. 

Have Club Brugge vs Aston Villa and Benfica vs Barcelona not been played far too recently? 

Adding to the Groundhog Day feeling we also have two intra-nation clashes: the Madrid derby and Bayern Munich vs Leverkusen. Weird, but there’s an explanation. 

The competition’s new format allows teams that have already faced each other in the league phase or come from the same nation to clash, straightaway, in the knockout stages.

Under the previous format, such matchups were only possible from the quarter-finals onwards, and rarely occurred. 

However, this season has already witnessed three matches—PSV vs Juventus, Benfica vs Monaco, and the all-French derby PSG vs Brest—that wouldn’t have been feasible in previous years.  

Our European football expert, Daniele Fisichella, examines what betting lessons can be learned from these past encounters, as well as meetings between teams who have already clashed earlier in the campaign.

A familiar script after the league phase?

The inaugural Champions League play-offs have followed a predictable pattern, particularly in the three matchups that echoed prior meetings this season. 

Three out of four encounters ended with over 2.5 goals and both teams finding the net. 

But there were other similarities. For instance, Benfica triumphed 3-2 over Monaco back in November 2024, with the odds for their victory (2.92) remaining high also for their first leg play-off, highlighting that backing teams who have previously won can offer good value.

PSG reinforced their supremacy over Brest with a staggering 10-0 aggregate, maintaining an undefeated streak that stretches back 40 years to January 1985, winning 19 of the last 20 meetings. 

Given these statistics, a low-scoring encounter between Club Brugge and Aston Villa might be anticipated. The Belgians have averaged just 1.20 xG per game in the competition, the lowest among the Round of 16 teams. 

When these sides met in the league stage, Club Brugge secured a 1-0 victory with an xG of 1.38, outperforming Aston Villa’s 0.96. However, their goal was courtesy of a big error by Tyrone Mings who handled the ball from a goal kick, resulting in a non-penalty xG of just 0.61 for Nicky Hayen’s men.  

Consequently, BETSiE forecasts this as the only Round of 16 first leg likely to go under 2.5 goals, projecting a total of 2.48.

Away from home, Unai Emery’s side has managed to score more than once in only one of their seven matches across all competitions, notably a 2-2 draw at Arsenal. 

Nevertheless, Emiliano Martinez’s impressive save percentage of 84.6% ranks as the third highest in the Champions League, surpassed only by Yann Sommer (95.5%) and David Raya (88.2%).

Don’t be fooled by Barça thrilling victory

In the past three seasons, only during the 2023/24 campaign did a group-stage clash reoccur in the knockout stage, featuring Borussia Dortmund and PSG. The semi-finals mirrored the group stage, with all four games producing fewer than three goals. 

However, over the course of 180 minutes across their Champions League semi-final tie, PSG recorded an expected goals (xG) figure of 4.94 and struck the woodwork six times. 

Barcelona, who are currently priced at odds against at 1.90, kicked off at 2.15 in their most recent game in Lisbon during the Champions League league phase in January, securing a thrilling 5-4 victory. 

Our in-house model predicts an average of 2.97 goals per game in this round, but in the case of the game at the Da Luz backing Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score – Yes pays only 1.61 and would not guarantee a great return. 

Time for Atletico to get revenge

Turning to intra-nation clashes, Brest vs PSG marked the 25th occasion that two teams from the same country have met in the Champions League knockout phases, excluding the eight times when domestic rivals have clashed in the final. 

The Madrid derby will be the seventh all-Spanish knockout tie in the competition, aside from finals, with Los Blancos having previously eliminated their city rivals twice (2014/15 quarter-finals and 2016/17 semi-finals). 

Although BETSiE assigns the reigning champions a 67.7% chance of victory, the highest among all first-leg teams, it’s worth noting that Real Madrid haven’t beaten Atletico Madrid in regular time since September 2022, a streak spanning eight matches. 

A tight contest is anticipated, making backing both teams to score at 1.80 a potentially valuable choice.

League champions are the unlikely underdogs

Finally, Bayern Munich and Leverkusen face off again after their goalless draw on 15 February, during which Leverkusen registered 15 shots and hit the woodwork twice, while Bayern managed only three shots, none on target. 

This will be only the second-ever all-German knockout tie in the competition, the first since the late ’90s, when the Bavarians lost 0-1 on aggregate to Dortmund (1997/98 quarter-finals) and won 6-0 on aggregate against Kaiserslautern (1998/99 quarter-finals). 

Since taking over as Leverkusen’s manager, Xabi Alonso has remained unbeaten in six meetings (3 wins, 3 draws) against Bayern Munich. 

Despite Vincent Kompany’s side being 1.50 favourites to progress, they’ve averaged just 0.67 goals per game and conceded 1.50 in their last six encounters with the current German champions. 

Backing the visitors with a +0.75 Asian Handicap could offer potential value.

Safer Gambling

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.