Football 
Tennis 
Horse Racing Cards and Bookings Tips, Predictions, and Best Bets: Player Cards, Booking Points and Referee Data
Another weekend rolls around and another cards and bookings-focused tips, predictions and best bets article graces bettingexpert. Our expert, Matt Kirby, is on hand with three tips, including a player card, booking points bet, and a match cards selection.
Last week’s column saw both match picks land at 1.87 and 2.10 where a third successive week saw two out of three bets land.
- Wolves vs Tottenham: Over 3 Match Cards & a Tottenham Card in Each Half
- Leeds vs Plymouth: Finn Azaz To Be Booked
- Northampton vs Burton: 20+ Burton 20+ Booking Points & Burton Most Booking Points
Odds via bet365 and Sky Bet as of 21:00, November 9th, 2023. Odds may now differ.
The Data from the Premier League and the Championship: Team Bookings and Referee Data
After the wild Monday Night Football, Michael Oliver moves across north London, where he’s hoping for a quieter afternoon between Arsenal and Burnley. After a week in the Championship (and Champions League), Anthony Taylor is in charge of the big Premier League game as leaders Man City visit Chelsea.
The Championship action kicks off on Friday night with a Lancashire derby at Ewood Park, where Blackburn host Preston. Thomas Bramall is the man in the middle. Sunny Gill gets his second outing at this level following last weekend’s debut; he’s at Portman Road.
The Data from League One and League Two: Team Bookings and Referee Data
Alan Young, Sam Purkiss, and Ross Joyce – what’s not to love about some of these appointments? The card-happy trio all have matches, with Young (7.2 cards per 90 average) overseeing Morecambe’s trip to Grimsby. Meanwhile, Joyce (5.9 cards per 90 avg) has Salford v Mansfield.
One of the eye-catching appointments is that of Select Group 2 ref David Webb to Bradford’s home game against Barrow, in Graham Alexander’s first game in charge of the Bantams.
Wolves vs Tottenham: Look to away cards after HT
England, Premier League, Saturday, November 11th, 12:30 (UK)
There’s a saying in betting circles about avoiding the early kick-off. However, I’m a maverick, and there’s plenty to support a card-related punt.
Tottenham lost their heads in a wild London derby against Chelsea on Monday that saw them fall to defeat for the first time in the Premier League this season.
Ange Postecoglou’s side ended with nine men after the dismissals of Cristian Romero and Destiny Udogie in a game that saw a card count of 11.
Now, here comes the important stat courtesy of Opta – only Wolves (38) and Chelsea (36) have picked up more cards than Spurs (34 – 31 yellows, 3 reds). So, here we have two sides who tend to rack up the cards.
Wolves average 3.4 per home game, which is the joint-most with this opponent, while Spurs are averaging 3 cards per away match.
The first leg of this bet is over three cards. Those averages above are plenty strong enough to support the angle. Five of six Spurs away games have seen 4+ cards, plus there have been 4+ in all five of Wolves’ home games.
Part of me expects Spurs to rack up a few cards, given Postecoglu is forced to ring the changes. They already had some injuries, but with Micky van de Ven pulling up lame and the suspensions to Romero and Udogie, this will be a makeshift backline.
Also, given how high their defensive line was, someone like Eric Dier could be short of pace up against Matheus Cunha or Hwang Hee-chan.
Therefore, add a card in each half to Spurs. The Lilywhites have had a player cautioned in each half of six of their last eight league games. Plus, referee Robinson averages 1.9 cards in the first half, so could easily set out his stall with an early card.
And on top of that, Robinson booked three Spurs players in their 2-0 win at Bournemouth back in August. Yves Bissouma, Ricarlison, and Ivan Perisic entered his notebook that day.
With two sides ranking in the top three for cards, this has to be one match to shine the light on this weekend. And I’m taking match cards with Spurs to pick up at least one in each half at 1.86.
- Selection: Over 3 Match Cards & a Tottenham Card in Each Half
- Best Odds: 1.86
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 7/10
Finn Azaz To Be Booked: An angle with Aza
England, Championship, Saturday, November 11th,15:00 (UK)
Leeds look to have clicked, which is ominous for the rest of the Championship. They dug deep to inflict leaders Leicester’s second defeat the other week and should prove difficult to beat at Elland Road.
So, good luck Plymouth! The Pilgrims have one win in seven and are winless in seven on their travels this term (D3 L4), which makes this look like they have a mountain to climb.
The Leeds attack is pretty frightening for this level, with the likes of Crysencio Summerville, Joel Piroe, and Dan James. All of them can draw cards from opponents, which means we should see a few visitors end up in Josh Smith’s notebook.
Plymouth have come to the fore in recent weeks in the card markets. They’ve seen at least two in each of their last seven league games and have collected 11 in their last three away games – a tally inflated by the seven they picked up at West Brom.
Pretty much everyone got booked at The Hawthorns, including Finn Azaz who was the first player to have his name taken.
That was Azaz’s second caution of the season, so not prolific, but it’s now two cards in three away games for the midfielder, who’s going to have his work cut out during this 90 minutes.
Azaz doesn’t commit a lot of fouls, but this is the game that could see him getting through plenty of defensive work and having to be in a position to halt Leeds’ attacks. In the end, his patience could wear thin or he just takes one for the team.
Six of the seven visiting sides have picked up at least a couple of cards at Elland Road, with Huddersfield picking up four in the first half at the end of last month.
And it’s usually opposition midfielders who find themselves in hot water. Hamza Choudary came off the bench last week for Leicester and saw yellow, while Huddersfield pair Jonathan Hogg and Brahima Diarra were both booked. As was Norwich’s Gabriel Sara.
With two cards in his last three away games, Leeds are likely to draw plenty of fouls, and opposition midfielders usually in trouble, Azaz looks the one at the prices.
Northampton vs Burton: Follows the Brewers (again)
England, League One, Saturday, November 11th,15:00 (UK)
Two out-of-form sides meet at Sixfields when Northampton host Burton, and when digging through the data, one thing stood out that led me to my final pick.
Northampton average 0.9 cards per home game in League One, which is the fewest of all the sides. In contrast, Burton average 2.6 in away matches and 2.8 overall. That 2.8 per 90 is the third-most in the division.
Going further, the Brewers rank sixth for fouls per game (11.4) compared to the Cobblers, who rank 21st at 9.9. So, more fouls given away tends to lead to picking up more cards.
Burton have picked up 20+ booking points in 12 of their 16 league games, including six of eight on their travels. Their last four games have seen team totals of 30, 40, 40 & 30, clearing this line comfortably.
So, I’m combining 20+ Burton booking points, with them to collect the most in the match using a Bet Builder on Sky, which comes out at 1.80.
Dino Maamria’s side have earned the most booking points in 10 of their league outings this season, including in each of those last four I’ve mentioned away.
And when you consider that Northampton have seen fewer than two cards in five of their seven here at Sixfields, it can only lead to the visitors picking up the most bp.
Peterborough and Wycombe came to Northampton, picked up two cards and still earned the most bp, while Barnsley (40 bp) and Reading (30 bp) have all done similar on recent visits to Sixfields.
On top of this, we’ve got Scott Jackson in charge, who tends to card the visiting side more often. He’s shown 20+ booking points to the away side in 71% of his seven middles this season.
Burton have featured in The Cards Column previously, and this looks solid, with them tending to be quite direct in their approach, especially when you factor in Northampton cards are few and far between.
- Selection: Burton 20+ Booking Points & Burton Most Booking Points
- Best Odds: 1.80
- Bookmaker: Sky Bet
- Stake: 7/10
NOVEMBER 13-19 IS SAFER GAMBLING WEEK 2023
November 13-19 marks an important date in the calendar. Safer Gambling Week is a significant industry-wide event that aims to shed more light on responsible betting. For more information and advice, head to the bettingexpert Safer Gambling hub or our brief explainer below.
