Can PSG Finally Get Their Hands on the Champions League?

PSG are amongst the favourites to win the Champions League but they are yet to get their hands on this famous old trophy. 

Scott Thornton highlights why this could be Les Parisiens’ year after their triumph over Liverpool in the last round. BETSiE, our in-house projection model, certainly agrees. 

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

A Varied Attack Helps PSG in Champions League Pursuit

PSG have become the dominant force in French football since being taken over by Qatari Sports Investments (QSI). They have won Ligue 1 in 10 of the last 12 seasons but they are yet to be crowned the champions of Europe. Thomas Tuchel guided the team to the final in 2020 where they were beaten 1-0 by Bayern Munich. Luis Enrique is looking to go a step further and get his hands on the trophy. 

Enrique has taken a very different approach to squad building to his predecessors. PSG have previously had some of the world’s biggest stars in their ranks. They began the 2022/23 season with Lionel Messi, Kylian Mbappe and Neymar forming the forward line. All three have since departed but the current squad looks dangerous as ever. 

PSG have an immensely talented young team. The average age of the starting 11 in their last game against Liverpool was just 24.8 years. Marquinhos was the only player who has celebrated his 30th birthday. The Brazilian, who is also the captain, added some steel to the backline. He made two tackles and two fouls as his team successfully kept Arne Slot’s men out. Enrique’s defence is protected by an extremely mobile midfield. This has meant they have conceded an average of 0.83 goals per game, the fifth-fewest in the Champions League. 

Les Parisiens also have a menacing attack. They see an awful lot of the ball with an average possession of 62% in Europe this season. This enables them to sustain pressure and give their exceptional forwards time to shine. Ousmane Dembele has been the standout player for PSG in the Champions League. He has netted seven goals and registered one assist in 11 appearances. The Frenchman also averages 7.31 carries per 90 minutes played in the past 12 months. In fact, Enrique’s front three that started against Liverpool all rank in the top 10% for progressive carries compared with attacking midfielders and wingers across Europe’s top five leagues in the past year. 

PSG are solid in all areas but their wealth of options in attack makes them difficult to pin down. The likes of Bradley Barcola, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Desire Doue and Goncalo Ramos provide excellent support for Dembele. The team are no longer relying on a star man and this will make them a handful in the business end of the Champions League. 

Liverpool Win Highlights PSG’s Credentials

Liverpool were the favourites to win the Champions League after finishing 1st in the league phase. PSG are now the second favourites with the bookmakers after dumping Arne Slot’s men out of the competition but the manner of that victory showed even more promise. Enrique’s men were beaten 1-0 at home in the first leg despite having 27 shots to Liverpool’s two. PSG then won the xG battle at Anfield on their way to a 1-0 win over their own before getting the better of the home side in a penalty shootout.

Les Parisiens face another English side in the form of Aston Villa in the quarter-finals. This is the Villains’ first season in Europe’s elite club competition since 1983. They were exceptional as they secured a top-eight finish in the league phase but PSG are strong favourites to progress. BETSiE gives Enrique’s team a 77.8% chance of qualifying for the last four, only Barcelona (79.4%) have a better chance.

BETSiE now ranks PSG as the favourites to go on and win the trophy. They would face the winner of Real Madrid vs Arsenal should they navigate their way past Aston Villa. 

There are no easy games at this stage of the competition but Enrique will fancy his side’s chances against Villa. They have just beaten Liverpool, who are 25 points ahead of Unai Emery’s side in the Premier League. They have also beaten Manchester City on their way to the last eight in a run of European results that has made onlookers sit up and take notice. The numbers suggest that PSG will takes som beating in the Champions League.  

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