Can Any of the Newly-Promoted Sides Complete a Great Escape?

The Premier League’s relegation candidates have 14 games remaining and the current bottom three need to start winning games if they are to remain in the top tier of English football. Scott Thornton analyses the data and takes a look at BETSiE’s projections ahead of matchday 25. 

Southampton, Leicester and Ipswich and heavy favourites to go down but is there still time for one of them to complete a great escape with Wolves in the mix?

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Newly-Promoted Woes

If the situation at the bottom remains the same, this will be just the third Premier League campaign where all three newly-promoted sides have been relegated after 1998 and last season. Is there a gulf in class growing between the second-tier and the established top-flight teams? 

Southampton are the lowest-scoring team in the division, netting just 18 goals in their 24 matches thus far. They have secured just two wins and are conceding an average of 2.3 goals in the process. The Saints have also lost their last six league games at St. Mary’s as they prepare to host Bournemouth a the weekend. 

Ipswich are the only relegation candidate who haven’t made a managerial change this season. Kieran McKenna was a wanted man in the summer after leading the club to back-to-back promotions but he chose to stay put. The Tractor Boys have the lowest xG in the Premier League with 22.64 and scoring goals has been a real problem. Their last league win came against Chelsea on December 30th. Since then, they have played five games, scoring four and conceding 16. 

Leicester were the second team to sack their manager this season after Manchester United. They eventually decided upon Ruud Van Nistelrooy as the man to take the team forward after his successful stint as interim boss of the Red Devils. However, the Dutchman has been unable to steer them away from the bottom three. After earning four points in Ruud’s first two games in charge, the Foxes have picked up just three points in their nine matches since. 

With Everton pulling away from the relegation zone in the early stages of David Moyes’ second stint at the club, Wolves are seemingly the only team that could get dragged into the bottom three.  The Old Gold beat Aston Villa 2-0 in their last league outing, ending a run of four straight defeats. However, beating Liverpool looks a tall order so they could end the weekend in the relegation zone. 

BETSiE’s Bleak Outlook

BETSiE, our in-house prediction model, makes for grim reading for fans of the newly-promoted clubs. Southampton are projected to finish bottom with a total of 20 points. Ivan Juric was brought in to replace Russel Martin in December but it was seemingly too late. The Saints Triumphed over Ipswich last weekend but remain 10 points from safety. They face a Bournemouth side that are flying high at the weekend and are projected to score 0.98 fewer goals than their opponents by BETSiE.

Ipswich face a difficult trip to Aston Villa this weekend. BETSiE gives them just a 14.5% chance of coming away with the win and they are fast running out of time to rack up the points. The projection model predicts they will pick up 12 more points, finishing the season seven from safety. 

Leicester are the newly-promoted team that BETSiE gives the best chance of survival with just 14.8%. They also face a tough test this weekend in the form of title-chasing, Arsenal. 

The Foxes are no strangers to upsetting the odds. The club were bottom of the league on Christmas Day in their 2014/2015 season but secured more points in their last nine games than any other side to avoid the drop. That campaign laid the foundations for their famous Premier League title win the following year.

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