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Boxing Brentford vs Brighton Prediction: Team News and Lineups Preview
After an entertaining return to club football following a dull international break, we have a midweek Premier League slate and Matthew O’Regan delivering his Brentford vs Brighton prediction, team news, lineups and fixtures preview.
Prediction: Brentford 2-2 Brighton
The Seagulls won the reverse fixture 2-1 and will be looking to replicate this performance as they push to keep their European hopes alive. Brentford, on the other hand, are chasing their first win in seven as they battle against the drop to the Championship.
- Brentford vs Brighton Tip 1: Over 3.0 Goal Line
- Brentford vs Brighton Tip 2: Lewis Dunk Over 0.5 shots and Over 2 Match Cards
- Brentford vs Brighton Tip 3: Carlos Baleba and Ivan Toney to be Booked
Brentford vs Brighton Prediction 1: Barnstorming Bees
England, Premier League, Wednesday 3rd April 2024 19:30 (UK)
After finishing just two points off European places last season, Brentford have struggled to replicate that this campaign. Thomas Frank’s side sit just five points clear of the relegation zone after failing to win any of their last seven games.
While many people thought the absence of Ivan Toney for large chunks of the season would be their downfall, Brentford have scored 42 goals, only blanking away at Manchester City in 2024.
It has been their defence that has let them down, with their 55 goals conceded the fourth most in the league and nine above last season’s total.
The 2-0 win at Wolves in February was their only clean sheet in their last 22 matches, so defensive displays must improve if the Bees are to survive. Games at the G-Tech Community Stadium have seen over 2.5 goals in 12 out of 15 times- the second-biggest total in the league. Brentford games are averaging 3.23 goals, with this total rising to 3.66 at home.
Brighton are the visitors to West London on Wednesday. The Seagulls have become renowned for their high-octane games, with games involving Roberto De Zerbi’s side averaging 3.44 goals. This total rises to 3.53 when on their travels.
Albion have struggled in away games, winning just four times away from home in the league. 4-0, 6-1 and 3-0 defeats to Luton, Aston Villa and Fulham respectively highlights just how fragile Brighton can be on their travels. Of their 15 away games, 11 have seen over 2.5 goals.
The reverse fixture saw Brighton win 2-1 thanks to a second-half Jack Hinshelwood winner. A repeat of this scoreline would see a refund. However, with both teams battling for much-needed wins at opposite ends of the table, we should see an end-to-end affair at the G-Tech Community Stadium.
- Brentford vs Brighton Prediction 1: Over 3.0 Goal Line (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 1.88
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 10/10
Brentford vs Brighton Prediction 2: Slam Dunk For Shots
Lewis Dunk is arguably the biggest legend in Brighton’s history and has been instrumental in their rise through the leagues. From Withdean to Wembley, Rochdale to Rome – Lewis Dunk has been there for the Seagulls.
However, it is not just Dunk’s defensive work that has seen him captain his boyhood club and gain five England caps. The 32-year-old is also strong going forward and has been trusted with free-kicks.
Dunk has scored three goals already this season and is averaging 1.27 shots per game – ranking him amongst the highest shot-takers as centre-backs in the Premier League.
He has had a shot in his last five games, and 18 of his 25 league starts. Standing at 6 foot 4, Dunk is Brighton’s main aerial threat from corners. As mentioned, he is also on free-kicks so should get plenty of chances to shoot.
Brighton games have seen plenty of cards, with De Zerbi’s side averaging 2.72 cards per game- the fourth-highest total in the league. Away from home, this average is raised to 3.00.
The Seagulls have also drawn plenty of cards, with their opponents averaging 3.17 cards per game – the highest in the league. 37/40 Brighton games have seen at least three cards – with the only exceptions the two Europa League games against Ajax and the drab 0-0 draw at West Ham.
Brentford have averaged 2.5 cards per game, ranking them sixth in the league in this metric. 28 of their 34 games this season have seen at least three cards, including their last eight games.
- Brentford vs Brighton Prediction 2: Lewis Dunk Over 0.5 shots and Over 2 Match Cards (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 1.97
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 10/10
Brentford vs Brighton Prediction 3: Baleba for the Book
Carlos Baleba was signed in the summer from Lille, being cited as the Moises Caicedo replacement. While he has only made ten Premier League starts, the 20-year-old has impressed in his brief cameos. He is often hard to stop, winning 1.90 fouls per 90.
Baleba is also very strong defensively, winning 1.58 tackles and 7.81 duels per game. Due to his tendency to get stuck in, he can often find himself in the referee’s notebook. His five Premier League yellow cards have come at an average of 0.53 yellows per 90.
The Cameroonian also averaged 0.57 yellows per game for Lille. He is averaging 2.5 fouls per game – the highest total in the Brighton squad. A remarkable 18 centre midfielders have been booked against Brentford this season.
Since returning from a lengthy ban, Ivan Toney has played 11 times and been booked three times. The England international is averaging 1.7 fouls per 90- the third most in the Bees squad.
Lewis Dunk and Jan Paul Van Hecke are two physically dominant centre backs who love to engage in battles with strikers. So far, nine strikers have been booked against Brighton, including Yoane Wissa in the reverse fixture.
- Brentford vs Brighton Prediction 3: Carlos Baleba and Ivan Toney to be Booked (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 12.00
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 2/10
Brentford vs Brighton Prediction odds via bet365 as at 00:00, April 1st, 2024. Odds may now differ.
Brentford vs Brighton Team News and Possible Lineups: Injuries mounting for both sides.
Both sides are riddled with injuries. Brentford are without four starting defenders in Aaron Hickey, Ben Mee, Ethan Pinnock and Rico Henry. Midfielders Josh Dasilva and Christian Nørgaard are also absent, as well as forward Kevin Schade.
Brighton are also struggling with injuries, with their European exploits decimating their small squad. Defenders Jack Hinshelwood, Igor Julio and James Milner are missing through injuries, as well as midfield anchor Billy Gilmour, attacking talents Solly March, Joao Pedro, Julio Enciso and Kaoru Mitoma.
Brentford possible starting lineup: Flekken; Zanka, Ajer, Collins; Roerslev, Jensen, Janelt, Yarmolyuk, Lewis-Potter; Toney, Wissa
Brighton possible starting lineup: Verbruggen; Veltman, Van Hecke, Dunk, Estupinan; Baleba, Groß; Adingra, Lallana, Fati; Ferguson
The Predicted Brentford vs Brighton Premier League Standings by BETSiE
Our in-house predictive model, BETSiE, has had a go at predicting the Premier League standings ahead of the Brentford vs Brighton, currently 15th vs 9th, fixture by utilising the underlying data from the 2023/24 season up until this point.
For more league-specific BETSiE content including standings, probabilities and predictions, visit her page here – it’s worth it.
Brentford vs Brighton Standings Prediction
| Position | Club | Games | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 38 | 26.8 | 5.9 | 5.3 | 91.3 | 31.5 | 59.7 | 86.2 |
| 2 | Liverpool | 38 | 25.7 | 8.7 | 3.6 | 89.3 | 36.6 | 52.7 | 85.8 |
| 3 | Manchester City | 38 | 25.2 | 8.0 | 4.8 | 84.7 | 38.1 | 46.6 | 83.6 |
| 4 | Aston Villa | 38 | 20.5 | 6.2 | 11.3 | 73.7 | 57.6 | 16.1 | 67.8 |
| 5 | Tottenham | 38 | 19.8 | 7.0 | 11.2 | 76.8 | 61.2 | 15.6 | 66.4 |
| 6 | Manchester Utd | 38 | 18.2 | 4.1 | 15.7 | 53.7 | 57.7 | -4.0 | 58.6 |
| 7 | Chelsea | 38 | 16.1 | 8.2 | 13.7 | 68.3 | 62.6 | 5.7 | 56.5 |
| 8 | Newcastle | 38 | 16.3 | 6.1 | 15.6 | 78.7 | 65.9 | 12.8 | 55.0 |
| 9 | Brighton | 38 | 14.3 | 11.4 | 12.3 | 63.5 | 59.7 | 3.8 | 54.4 |
| 10 | West Ham | 38 | 15.0 | 9.2 | 13.8 | 58.9 | 67.8 | -8.9 | 54.1 |
| 11 | Wolverhampton | 38 | 14.9 | 7.1 | 16.0 | 54.6 | 62.0 | -7.4 | 51.8 |
| 12 | Bournemouth | 38 | 13.5 | 10.2 | 14.3 | 58.2 | 66.3 | -8.1 | 50.7 |
| 13 | Fulham | 38 | 14.2 | 7.1 | 16.7 | 56.8 | 58.7 | -2.0 | 49.8 |
| 14 | Brentford | 38 | 10.9 | 7.2 | 19.9 | 56.5 | 68.3 | -11.8 | 40.0 |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 38 | 9.9 | 10.4 | 17.8 | 44.9 | 64.4 | -19.5 | 40.0 |
| 16 | Everton | 38 | 12.0 | 9.2 | 16.8 | 44.2 | 54.0 | -9.8 | 39.1 |
| 17 | Nottingham Forest | 38 | 9.7 | 8.7 | 19.6 | 46.6 | 62.5 | -15.9 | 33.8 |
| 18 | Luton | 38 | 7.3 | 7.9 | 22.8 | 53.4 | 81.4 | -28.0 | 29.8 |
| 19 | Burnley | 38 | 6.0 | 7.4 | 24.6 | 39.2 | 78.1 | -38.9 | 25.3 |
| 20 | Sheffield Utd | 38 | 5.2 | 7.1 | 25.7 | 34.8 | 93.6 | -58.8 | 22.7 |
Match OPTA Stats: Midweek Unkind to Brentford
- Brentford have won just one of their five Premier League games against Brighton (D1 L3), though it was a 2-0 win in this exact fixture last season.
- Brighton have won just three of their last 17 away league games against Brentford (D5 L9), with all three coming via a 1-0 scoreline (December 1995, March 2011 and September 2021).
- Brighton are winless in all six of their Premier League away games against London sides this season (D2 L4), failing to score in half of those visits to the capital.
- Brentford have lost 10 of their 14 midweek (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday) Premier League games (W2 D2), including all four so far this season. At home, they’ve taken just one point from 12 available in such games (D1 L3).
- Since the start of last season, Brighton have won two of their four Premier League games played on a Wednesday (D1 L1), beating Brentford 2-1 in the reverse fixture this season. The Seagulls had only won one of their first 17 Wednesday games in the competition (D8 L8).
Brentford Fixtures: Relegation Battle Heating Up
- Vs Brighton (H)
- Vs Aston Villa (A)
- Vs Sheffield United (H)
- Vs Luton (A)
- Vs Everton (A)
Brighton Fixtures: Tough Run In Race for Europe
- Vs Brentford (A)
- Vs Arsenal (H)
- Vs Burnley (A)
- Vs Manchester City (H)
- Vs Bournemouth (A)
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