Bologna: Scudetto’s king-makers and a smart bet for cup glory

Bologna have emerged as one of Italy’s most in-form teams in 2025. 

Since 12 January the Rossoblù have impressively accumulated 19 points from the past 10 games, averaging 1.90 points per match. This run is more successful than that of Inter Milan, Napoli, and Atalanta—the trio currently contending for the Scudetto. 

Under the guidance of Vincenzo Italiano, the Felsinei have suffered just one defeat in their last 13 matches across all competitions, bolstering their chances in the Coppa Italia after eliminating last year’s finalists, Atalanta. 

Our Italian football expert, Daniele Fisichella, delves into the factors driving their success and discusses the implications for betting on Bologna going forward. 

Furthermore the race for the Italian championship could well hinge on Bologna’s performance in the weeks to come.

European experience is starting to pay off

Participating in the Champions League for the first time has undoubtedly taken its toll on Bologna. 

Until the end of 2024, they averaged 1.65 points per game, a notable reduction from their previous season’s average of 1.82 points per game after 17 matches. 

The departure of key players Joshua Zirkzee and Riccardo Calafiori, coupled with the managerial change from Thiago Motta to Vincenzo Italiano (pictured below), clearly impacted Bologna, particularly at the start of the season. 

Additionally, Lewis Ferguson, voted last season’s best midfielder in Italy, only returned from injury in early November.

Having to compete in the Champions League against strong opponents like Liverpool, Aston Villa, Benfica, and Lille—all of whom have advanced to the round of 16—has been a steep learning curve. 

However, the experience in Europe’s top club competition has bolstered Rossoblù’s confidence in their Serie A campaign. 

Remarkably, they have remained unbeaten in the league following European fixtures, collecting an impressive 20 out of a possible 24 points, thanks to six wins and two draws. This contrasts sharply with fellow Champions League debutants Aston Villa, who have struggled domestically after European outings, collecting just six points from 24 available.

The adaptation process has been anything but straightforward. 

The tactical shift from Motta’s possession-based, slow build-up style to Italiano’s high-intensity pressing has led to Bologna conceding more goals this season—33 compared to 24 at the same stage last year. Additionally, they have already featured in 16 matches where both teams scored, just one shy of their total for the entire last campaign.

Gearing up for a strong finish?

Apart from their 3-0 setback at Napoli on matchday two, Bologna have consistently matched or exceeded their expected goals (xG), and the underlying data align closely with their points tally.  

Projected to average 1.41 points per game over the remaining 11 fixtures, the club from Emilia-Romagna could potentially finish the season with 62.6 points, five short of last year’s total.

Currently, they sit four points behind last season’s tally at this stage of the campaign, but BETSiE gives them just a 3.8% chance of securing a top-four finish. 

This suggests that the current odds of 21.00, with an implied probability of 4.8%, do not offer great value for bettors.

Even if Italiano’s side maintained their current pace over the final 11 matches, they would still end the season with 66 points—a total that would have secured a Champions League spot only in the 2014/15 season when Fiorentina finished fourth with 64 points.

Manager’s strong CV suggest the value is on the cup

Bologna still have seven pivotal matches to play, including clashes against the teams currently occupying the top four spots in the table. Three of these matches—against Napoli, Inter Milan, and Juventus—will take place at the “Stadio Renato Dall’Ara:. 

With 29 points from 14 home games, averaging 2.07 points per match, Bologna are currently Serie A’s second-best home team, just behind the Nerazzurri which makes them potential ‘king-makers’ in the Scudetto race.

However, the real value might lie in betting on Bologna to win the Coppa Italia, which would mark their first major trophy since the 1998 Intertoto Cup. 

The Rossoblù have been drawn in a two-legged semi-final against Empoli, a team that secured their Serie A status in the final moments of the 2023/24 season. Currently, the Tuscans’ chances of relegation stand at 26.4%, according to BETSiE.

Bologna have drawn 1-1 against Empoli twice this season, but they registered back-to-back victories against them last year. 

Should Bologna progress to their third ever Coppa Italia final, they would face either Inter Milan or AC Milan. 

With their odds to win the cup at 4.00, reflecting an implied probability of 25%, this presents an excellent opportunity for a value bet. 

Bologna have lost only two of their last six games against the Milanese clubs, and the current odds are more favourable than they were when Bologna faced, and defeated, AC Milan on 27 February (2.83 back then). This is also true for their draw away (2-2) against Inter Milan in January. 

Furthermore, Bologna’s manager Italiano has a proven track record in cup competitions. He guided Fiorentina to two Conference League finals and a Coppa Italia final and semi-final over the past two seasons. 

While he has yet to claim a major trophy, Italiano boasts an impressive knockout record, with a 49% win rate and only seven defeats in 32 matches.

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