Bettors Beware: Leicester’s Scoring Record Hides Deeper Issues

Leicester City’s return to the Premier League has seen them score in every match so far, a record matched only by Manchester City. On the surface, this might make the Foxes look like a side capable of maintaining their top-flight status. However, while their attacking form is impressive, bettors need to dig deeper to understand the full picture. Leicester’s scoring ability may not be enough to guarantee safety this season, and a closer look at their underlying stats reveals some alarming trends.

A Potent but Overperforming Attack?

Leicester’s attack, spearheaded by Jamie Vardy, has been clinical. Vardy’s impressive conversion rate of 33.3% and the contributions from new talents like Facundo Buonanotte and Issahaku Abdul Fatawu have kept Leicester in games they might otherwise have lost. Buonanotte, on loan from Brighton, has made a significant impact, while Fatawu’s energy and creativity off the bench add an extra dimension to Leicester’s attack.

However, Leicester’s shot conversion rate of 19.4%—the fourth-best in the league—seems unsustainable given their low overall shot count. The Foxes are second from the bottom in total shots taken, averaging just 9.5 shots per game. Their xG (expected goals) suggests they’ve been scoring more than they should, which raises questions about whether their luck in front of goal will hold up for the rest of the season.

Defensive Concerns Loom Large

Leicester’s scoring record may be impressive, but their defensive frailties are a major cause for concern. Steve Cooper’s side has faced 149 shots, more than almost any other team in the league. Their expected goals against (xGA) is 17.1, yet they’ve conceded 14 goals, meaning they’ve actually been fortunate to concede fewer than expected. If this trend continues, Leicester’s leaky defence could undo the good work being done up front.

The reliance on key players like Wilfred Ndidi, who is both crucial in defence and attack, adds to their precarious situation. Ndidi has created seven chances and provided four assists, but his disciplinary issues are a risk. One more yellow card, and Leicester could be without one of their most influential players, further exposing their defensive weaknesses.

Betting Strategies for Leicester’s Uncertain Future

For bettors, Leicester’s mix of clinical attacking and shaky defence offers both opportunities and risks. In-play betting markets on both teams to score (BTTS) could be appealing, as Leicester’s style suggests they will score, but their defensive vulnerabilities make clean sheets unlikely. However, punters should be wary of backing Leicester for outright wins, especially in matches where they are up against sides with strong defences and counter-attacking potential.

As the Foxes enter a pivotal run of fixtures, including games against Nottingham Forest and Manchester United, bettors should keep a close eye on how Leicester’s form develops. Their scoring record may not be enough to keep them safe if their defence continues to struggle, making them a risky proposition in long-term markets like relegation betting.

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

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