Betting on Unders: December’s Fixture Congestion in La Liga and the Premier League

December’s fixture congestion across Europe’s top leagues presents an intriguing opportunity for bettors. With Premier League and La Liga clubs juggling domestic matches, European commitments, and cup ties, heavy schedules and player fatigue could lead to fewer goals.

Fatigue Hits Aston Villa’s Attack

Aston Villa are among the Premier League clubs feeling the pressure of a relentless schedule. After the international break, Unai Emery’s men face six matches in just 17 days, including Champions League duties. This workload seems to be taking a toll, with Villa failing to score multiple goals in seven of their last eight matches.

Their upcoming match against Southampton could be a low-scoring affair. Despite being in the relegation zone, the Saints have kept things tight on the road, with their last three away games going under 2.5 goals. Teams like Brighton and Manchester City have struggled to break Southampton down, and Villa’s misfiring attack may also find it difficult.

Southampton’s possession-focused style under Russell Martin further complicates things for Villa. The Saints boast the fifth-highest average possession in the league (54.5%), which could limit Villa’s chances in a game with a high Asian goal line of 3.25.

European Fatigue Could Impact La Liga’s Goal Totals

The story is similar in La Liga, where fixture congestion may also curb high-scoring games. Barcelona, for example, face Mallorca, Real Betis, and Borussia Dortmund within eight days, with players already fatigued from international duty.

Although Barcelona have breached the over 2.5 goal line in 13 of 15 league matches, their packed schedule could be a turning point. Real Betis, their next league opponents, have seen under 2.5 goals in 10 of their 15 matches this season. Betis also face a Europa Conference League match just days later, adding to their fatigue concerns.

Why December Favors Betting on Unders

Both leagues show signs of goals drying up as squads rotate and fatigue sets in. For bettors, these trends offer value in unders markets, particularly in games involving teams with heavy European commitments. Expect tactical conservatism to play a major role during this hectic period, making unders a smart betting strategy.

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

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