Betting on Chelsea: Exceptional at Home But Dire Away

Chelsea are battling to finish in the top five in the Premier League. Enzo Marseca’s side’s home form has been the driving force in their battle to qualify for the Champions League but their away form is cause for concern.

Scott Thornton highlights how bettors can take advantage of the Blues’ contrasting form in the weeks to come. They face Ipswich at Stamford Bridge this weekend before heading to Fulham on matchday 33.

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

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Stamford Bridge is a Fortress Once Again

Chelsea were set to be involved in the title race before the festive period but a slump in form saw them fall out of contention. They now sit 4th in the table, but Newcastle, Manchester City and Aston Villa are all hot on their tails. 

The good news for Blues fans is that the team have been excellent at Stamford Bridge. They have lost just one of their 14 league matches in front of their own fans since being beaten 2-1 by Manchester City on the opening weekend of the season. During that impressive run, Chelsea have won nine and drawn four.

Enzo Maresca’s side have been in impressive scoring form on home turf. They have found the net in their last 14 home games, scoring an average of two goals per game over that period. Chelsea have an xG of 32.06 in their Premier League, only Liverpool, Aston Villa and Arsenal have a better expected goals at home. 

Chelsea come into the weekend’s game against Ipswich on the back of six straight wins at Stamford Bridge in all competitions. They have kept a clean sheet in the last four and their opponents are averaging just 0.65 xG per game during that run. As a result, we are backing Maresca’s men to win to nil on Sunday.

The Tractor Boys have scored 28 goals, the third-fewest in the Premier League, from an xG of 27.5. They are averaging just 38% possession in their away matches and are likely to be starved of the ball once again. Ipswich are having just 7.9 shots per match on the road, which is less than both Leicester and Southampton.

Ipswich look set to go down. They are 12 points from safety and they will struggle against a Chelsea side that are enjoying playing at Stamford Bridge. BETSiE gives the Tractor Boys just a 13.2% chance of emerging victorious and the goal projections suggest they might have a hard time getting on the scoresheet. 

Chelsea Continue to Struggle on the Road

Chelsea’s away form is a stark contrast to their home form. Their last Premier League win on the road was against Tottenham on December 8th. Maresca’s team ran out 4-3 victors on that day, making it three consecutive league away wins. Since then, they have lost five of their eight league games on the road, drawing the other three.

The Blues’ struggles on the road have largely been down to their attacking output. They have failed to score in four of their last eight away matches and managed just a single goal in the other four. This means they have netted an average of just 0.38 goals per away game over that period. Leicester, who have been lambasted for their poor attacking displays of late, have scored an average of 0.57 goals per away game over the same time period. They were unable to convert any of their 21 shots in their last away match against Brentford.

Cole Palmer’s drop-off in form has been a key factor in Chelsea’s woes in front of goal. The midfielder’s last goal came in the 2-2 draw against Bournemouth at Stamford Bridge on January 14th. Since then, he has registered just one goal contribution in nine Premier League outings. Despite the dip in form, he still has seven more goal contributions than any other player in the squad, highlighting how no other player has been able to step up while Palmer’s form has dipped.

Maresca’s side are 8th in the Premier League away table, below the likes of Bournemouth, Crystal Palace and Brighton. They have picked up 1.38 points per game in their away games, 0.69 less than they earn at Stamford Bridge.

Chelsea’s poor away form doesn’t bode well with Fulham awaiting them in their next match on the road. Marco Silva’s side have already beaten Chelsea this season. Rodrigo Muniz came off the bench to score the decisive goal in the dying moments as Fulham won 2-1. However, the stats suggest the Cottagers deserved their victory, finishing the game with more possession, more shots and 0.66 more xG than their opponents.

Fulham beat Liverpool 3-2 in their last match at Craven Cottage. They were incisive on the break and were able to trouble Arne Slot’s defence. Silva’s men can have similar success against Chelsea so we are backing them to win.  

The Blues need to improve their away from quickly if they are to stay clear of their rivals in the hunt for Champions League football. For now, their excellent home displays continue to bail them out of trouble. 

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