Betting on Arteta's Arsenal: Is Carragher Right to Compare Him to Mourinho?

Arsenal’s 2-2 draw with Liverpool has sparked a fresh debate about Mikel Arteta’s tactical approach, with Jamie Carragher suggesting that Arteta’s style aligns more with Jose Mourinho’s defensive discipline than Pep Guardiola’s attacking philosophy. The Gunners showed a noticeably deeper setup in the second half, fueling Carragher’s comparison. So, is there truth to this claim, and how might it impact betting on Arsenal this season?

Discipline and Defence: Arsenal’s Tactical Shift?

Arsenal boasted the Premier League’s best defensive record last season, conceding just 0.76 goals per game—a key factor in their title challenge. With an expected goals against (xGA) of 31.78, they surpassed even Manchester City in defensive solidity. While this season’s start has been more challenging, Arsenal’s defence remains strong, currently ranking fourth in fewest goals conceded.

However, discipline has been an issue, with three red cards already impacting their gameplay. Excluding those matches, Arsenal’s defensive record would improve even further, averaging just one goal per game conceded. Arteta’s recent recruitment strategy has leaned toward physical players, adding resilience but perhaps prompting a more defensive approach in key moments.

Despite this, Arsenal are anything but passive. They allow just 8.22 passes per defensive action—the league’s second-lowest—indicating their commitment to high pressing. But a dip in possession, averaging just 49% this season, suggests Arteta is prioritising defensive solidity, especially when dealing with player dismissals. Notably, Mourinho’s last Premier League season saw Tottenham with a similar possession average of 52%.

Arsenal’s Slight Drop-Off in Attack

Carragher’s claim hinges on the idea that Arteta’s defensive focus may stem from a lack of confidence in Arsenal’s attack compared to Manchester City’s firepower. While Arsenal scored the second-most goals in the league last season, averaging 2.39 goals per game, this figure has dipped to 1.89 per game in the current campaign. Still, Arsenal have scored in every Premier League match this season except one—a game in which William Saliba’s red card left them vulnerable.

Comparing this to Mourinho’s approach, Arteta’s Arsenal show greater consistency in finding the net. Even with a slight reduction in scoring rate, Arsenal’s attacking output remains strong, outperforming all but Manchester City and Liverpool since the start of last season.

Betting Tips: Defence and Low-Scoring Matches

Arsenal’s upcoming fixture against Newcastle at St. James’s Park offers a betting opportunity based on recent trends. The last five clashes between the two sides have averaged just 1.6 goals per game, with under 2.5 goals hitting in each. With Arsenal’s disciplined defensive focus, betting on under 2.5 goals may be a prudent choice.

Arteta’s Arsenal may not be the free-flowing side associated with Pep Guardiola, but this defensive commitment has turned them into a resilient betting option. As Arsenal adapts to Arteta’s evolving tactics, focusing on defensive bets and careful goal-line selections could be valuable strategies this season.

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

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