Bet Against the Bottom Three as Their Poor Runs Continue

Southampton, Ipswich and Leicester are destined to go down come the end of the season. Neither looks like closing the gap on Wolves and we are set to see the newly-promoted three go down for just the third time in Premier League history. 

The current bottom three are priced incredibly short in the outright relegation market but recent performances mean backing against the trio on the 1×2 market appeals. 

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

The Damning Data

Southampton

Southampton are on course to have the worst ever Premier League season. Derby, who currently hold that unwanted record by finishing with 11 points, had nine points after 27 matches. The Saints also have nine heading into matchday 28 but have a worse goal difference than the Rams did at this stage during the 2007/08 season. 

Ivan Juric took over from Russell Martin in December, but the new manager has been unable to make an impact. The team won just one of the 10 league games in his tenure, and that was against fellow strugglers Ipswich. During that miserable run, Southampton have scored an average of just 0.8 goals per game and conceded 2.90. They head to Anfield after back-to-back 4-0 defeats in the league and are likely to be put to the sword once again. 

Liverpool are storming towards the Premier League title. Arne Slot’s team have looked marvellous in recent months, particularly when playing in front of their own fans. They have won their last six home games across all competitions, scoring 2.5 more goals per game than their opponents.

The Saints have lost their last seven matches at Anfield. Five of those defeats have come by a margin of three goals or more, the other two have come by a two-goal margin so we are backing the Liverpool -1.5 Asian handicap as part of our treble. 

Ipswich

Ipswich were the most settled team coming into the season. Kieran McKenna extended his contract with the club despite being chased by the likes of Chelsea and Manchester United and the club set about bolstering his squad. The Tractor Boys arrived in the Premier League after back-to-back promotions so their struggles are unsurprising. With their fate looking more certain by the game, their focus will be on returning to the top flight at the first time of asking. 

McKenna’s side haven’t won a league match since December. Since then, they have played eight games and earned just two points. Over that period, their opponents have scored an average of three goals per game. Ipswich succumbed to a 3-2 defeat at Old Trafford in their last league outing. Manchester United have been in torrid form but they were still able to snatch a winner despite being reduced to 10 men in the first half.

Crystal Palace, on the other hand, are in fine fettle. They have won five of their last six competitive matches with their only defeat coming against an Everton side that are in resurgent form under David Moyes. The Eagles faced Aston Villa at Selhurst Park in their last Premier League match and recorded an emphatic 4-1 victory. They certainly have the firepower to inflict more misery on Ipswich here. 

Leicester

Leicester began the season with Steve Cooper at the helm but he was dismissed following a poor run of results in November. The Foxes resided outside the bottom three when they made that bold decision. Now they are five points from safety with 11 games to play. 

Ruud Van Nistelrooy was brought in on the back of a successful stint as interim boss at Manchester United. The Dutchman had limited Premier League experience and the decision seems to have backfired. Ruud earned four points from his first two games in charge of Leicester. Since then, the Foxes have lost 11 of their 12 league matches with Van Nistelrooy in the hot seat. They have scored just 0.33 goals per game during that run. Leicester also have the worst xG (expected goals) in the league with 24.6.

Chelsea were enduring a poor run of form after losing against the likes of Brighton and Aston Villa but they bounced back by hammering Southampton 4-0 in their last game. Enzo Maresca’s side are in need of the points as they hunt for a place in the top four so they will show no mercy this weekend. 

The Blues are unbeaten in their last seven matches against the Foxes, winning six. Leicester’s last six defeats in the Premier League have come by a margin of two goals or more and we are backing Chelsea to replicate that. 

Safer Gambling

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