Bet Against Record-Breaking Manchester United

Manchester United’s 4-1 defeat at St. James’s Park ensured that this will be their worst-ever points tally in a Premier League season. Ruben Amorim has struggled since taking the hot seat at Old Trafford and yet more unwanted records could be broken before the end of the season.

The Red Devils are also on course to have their lowest-scoring Premier League campaign. The club were known for their swashbuckling attacking football under Sir Alex Ferguson but those days are long gone. Scott Thornton assesses how punters should bet on United’s misfiring attack in the weeks to come. 

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Damning Numbers in Attack

Manchester United are scoring an average of 1.19 goals per game in the Premier League this season, well below the overall average of 1.48 goals scored. Only Southampton, Leicester, Ipswich, Everton and West Ham have scored fewer goals than the Red Devils thus far. At the current rate, United would end the season having scored 45 goals. That’s four goals less than they scored in the 2015/16 campaign, Louis Van Gaal’s last with the club and United’s worst Premier League season in front of goal.

The lack of a focal point in attack has proven costly for Manchester United. Joshua Zirkzee, who was signed in the summer to ease the burden on Rasmus Hojlund, has mainly featured as a number 10 under Amorim. Hojlund has also struggled to have an impact. The Danish forward has the pace and power to trouble the opposition defenders. However, he seldom finds himself in the right areas, bringing his football IQ into question. Over the past 12 months, Hojlund ranks in the bottom 30% of forwards for non-penalty xG per 90 minutes played across Europe’s top five leagues. 

Amad Diallo was proving to be a key player for Amorim prior to his injury but now United are overly reliant on Bruno Fernandes. The Portuguese midfielder is their top scorer in the league with eight goals. He also has nine assists in the league. In fact, Bruno has directly contributed to six of United’s last 10 goals in the Premier League.

United cannot look to the underlying data for reassurance. They have an xG of 41, which is the eighth lowest in the division. It’s clear there is no fix for Ruben Amorim. The Red Devils’ woes in front of goal will continue until the end of the season when they will attempt to overhaul their squad. The team also have nothing to play for in the Premier League so it’s a good time to back against the 20-time champions of England. 

Tough Tests to Come 

United’s next domestic match is against Wolves. Amorim’s side were beaten 2-0 by Wolves when the teams met earlier in the season. They finished that game with an xG of just 0.44. The Red Devils should struggle to create meaningful chances yet again, especially with the short turnaround from their Europa League clash with Lyon. Therefore, we are backing the home side to score one goal or less here. 

Manchester United have scored two goals or more in just two of their last five Premier League matches at Old Trafford. Those two matches were against Ipswich and Southampton, who are both in the relegation zone. During that dismal run, Amorim’s men have scored an average of just one goal per game. 

Wolves have conceded a goal or less in five of their last six away matches across all competitions. Liverpool, who are poised to win the title, are the only side who managed to score two goals against Vitor Pereira’s side during that period. The club’s recent trips to Old Trafford also show promise. The Old Gold have conceded more than one goal in just one of their last seven visits to this ground.

The Red Devils’ next away match is a trip to Bournemouth. The Cherries beat United 3-0 at Old Trafford earlier in the season so backing against Amorim’s side inthe goals markets looks a solid bet here. 

Andoni Iraola’s side’s underlying data is exceptional. Only Liverpool and Arsenal have a higher xPTS (expected points) tally over the course of the season. They also rank in the top half of the table for xGA (expected goals against). Bournemouth beat Fulham 1-0 in their last home match and have what it takes to keep Manchester United at bay.  

With United stumbling over the finish line in the Premier League, it’s a good time to bet against Amorim’s side. Their attacking players, with the exception of Bruno Fernandes, have shown very little. A lack of cutting-edge continues to prove costly and it’s something that can’t be remedied outside of the transfer window.

Safer Gambling

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.