Bet Against Bayern? How Champions League Fixtures Impact Bundesliga Club Odds

Bayern Munich’s early Champions League form has left bettors wondering if they’re the best pick to be the top Bundesliga team in Europe this season. With three points from their first two matches, Bayern trail behind Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen, who both sit on six points. Bayern’s record in Europe is formidable, having reached at least the quarter-finals in 12 of the last 13 seasons. But could this year be different? Tough upcoming fixtures leave room for their Bundesliga rivals to close the gap.

Daunting Fixtures Could Hurt Bayern

Bayern Munich’s narrow 1-0 defeat to Aston Villa on matchday two hasn’t derailed their Champions League hopes, but it has exposed vulnerabilities that could affect their standing among the Bundesliga teams in Europe. With Dortmund and Leverkusen both enjoying perfect starts, Bayern face a tougher path ahead. They are still priced at 3.00 to be the top Bundesliga club in the competition, but their fixtures are daunting.

Bayern’s next three matches include trips to Barcelona and home fixtures against PSG and Benfica. Meanwhile, Dortmund travel to face Real Madrid at the Bernabeu before facing Sturm Graz and Dinamo Zagreb. Leverkusen, fresh off wins against Feyenoord and Milan, have an easier run with games against Brest, Salzburg, and Sparta Prague.

Bayern’s dominance in the Bundesliga is reflected in their superior expected goal difference, but their defensive frailties have shown in key games. Dortmund and Leverkusen, while inconsistent domestically, have taken advantage of the new Champions League format and Bayern’s stumbles to gain the early lead.

Dortmund and Leverkusen Offer Better Value

With Bayern facing tough fixtures, Dortmund and Leverkusen present stronger betting value in the market for the top Bundesliga team in the Champions League. Dortmund’s odds could plummet if they manage a result against Real Madrid on matchday three, and they should be favoured in their remaining games against weaker opponents.

Leverkusen face a trickier path, with matches against Liverpool and Atletico Madrid looming, but their price offers value for those willing to take a chance. Bayern, on the other hand, may still be the favourite to top the group, but their 33.3% implied probability seems overly generous considering their upcoming challenges.

If Dortmund can pull off a strong result in Madrid, their odds will shorten significantly, making them a smart pick for those looking to capitalise on Bayern’s challenging fixture list.

Conclusion

While Bayern Munich remain a strong force in Europe, the odds suggest there’s value in betting on their Bundesliga rivals, Dortmund and Leverkusen. Both teams have easier fixtures and are in a better position to take advantage of Bayern’s tough upcoming schedule. If you’re looking to bet on the top Bundesliga club in this year’s Champions League, Dortmund stands out as the best option.

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

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