Football | Tuesday, March 26, 2024 10:06 AM

Bayern Munich vs Dortmund Prediction: Team News and Lineups Preview

Harry Kane tangling with the net in his last Bundesliga game.

European Football Expert

Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund collide in the 135th edition of Der Klassiker this Saturday, and with that Jack Wright is on hand with a Bayern Munich vs Dortmund prediction, team news, lineups and fixtures preview.

With Bayer Leverkusen ten points clear at the top of Bundesliga it appears Bayern’s run of successive title wins is set to end at 11, but this clash remains one of European football’s most hotly anticipated fixtures between two sides still in the Champions League.

Bayern Munich vs Dortmund Tip 1: Bayern Munich to Win and Over 3.5 Goals
Bayern Munich vs Dortmund Tip 2: Jamal Musiala to Score
Bayern Munich vs Dortmund Tip 3: Donyell Malen Over 1.5 Shots & Julian Brandt Over 0.5 Shots

Bayern Munich vs Dortmund Prediction 1: Der Klassiker promises to entertain once more

Germany, Bundelsiga, Saturday, March 30th, 17:30 (UK)

We have to go all the way back to Wolfsburg’s win in 2009 for the last time either Bayern Munich or Borussia Dortmund didn’t win the German Bundelsiga. Admittedly, the Bavarians have been responsible for the heavy lifting over that period of time. They were crowned champions in 12 of the subsequent 14 seasons, including each of the last 11, with BVB runners-up in seven of those campaigns.

As a result when the long-standing rivals meet it has become one of the stand out fixtures in the European footballing calendar. With Xabi Alonso’s side holding a 10-point advantage at the top of the table Bayern have only the slimmest chance of retaining their title. Current title odds of 15.00 illustrate just how forlorn a hope it is.

However, it is not just Der Klassiker bragging rights at stake in front of a packed Allianz Arena. With 24 points up for grabs Thomas Tuchel knows his charges will have to be faultless over the run-in to have any hope of overhauling the unbeaten league leaders. Defeat would mean 3rd placed Stuttgart can close the gap to a solitary point with an expected win at home to Heidenheim over the weekend.

Appalling records

Dortmund occupy fourth spot, the last Champions League qualification place, but they are only a point clear of RB Leipzig in fifth. With four successive wins under their belt, they should come into this clash with confidence. However, they have a terrible record against the hosts, and I am taking that to continue.

At odds of 1.44 I am hardly sticking my neck on the line with that prediction. However, given both sides have formidable attacks and hardly watertight defence I feel there is a way to get the home win on side at a nice price.

Bayern have won 12 of the last 14 league meetings between the two sides, losing just once and winning all of the last nine on home soil. They have won those home games by an incredible aggregate of 37-8, scoring at least four goals in seven of the last eight Klassikers here.

Another home win with over 3.5 goals comes in at 2.05 and is a selection that has landed in each of the last eight seasons with Bayern at home. The Bavarians have won 11 of their 13 home league games this term, too, scoring an average of 3.62 goals, whilst they haven’t kept a clean sheet in any of their last eight Bundesliga fixtures across all venues.

The reverse fixture ended in a 4-0 rout for Bayern with Harry Kane bagging a hat-trick on his Klassiker debut. His withdrawal from the England squad with an ankle injury but subsequent involvement in club training is a boost to this selection as he looks to add to his incredible tally of 31 goals in 26 league games.

Bayern Munich vs Dortmund Prediction 1: Bayern Munich to Win and Over 3.5 goals
Best Odds: 2.05
Bookmaker: bet365
Stake: 8/10

Bayern Munich vs Dortmund Prediction 2: “Bambi” on nice run of form – so expect more Musiala magic

It is easy to miss the odd international friendly result. A hotchpotch of fixtures scattered across the week amidst a plethora of players withdrawing from their respective squads with a nasty case of “Fergie-itis”.

Amongst the non-descript, one result stood out – France 0-2 Germany. A statement victory for the hosts of this summer’s European Championships with one player a shining light at the heart of what was a superb performance in Lyon.

Jamal Musiala dictated play and provided the assist for the match clinching second goal, rounding Brice Samba before squaring to Kai Havertz who applied the finishing touch. That performance continued an excellent run of form where he has regularly been starring for Bayern.

The 21-year-old has 10 league goals to his name this season and looks set to eclipse his best return to date which was the 12 he recorded last term. Half of those goals have come in his last five Bundesliga appearances, scoring twice on his last outing when he had a season high nine attempts at goal.

After that performance, opposition head coach Torsten Lieberknecht enthused, “If you’re not facing him as an opponent, it’s an utter delight to watch the lad. As a country, we can count ourselves lucky to have a player like him.”

On current form, “Bambi”, who is nicknamed as such for his dribbling ability, is pretty much unplayable. It is something of a surprise to see eight of his teammates at shorter odds to get on the scoresheet. But to me, that only screams value, and I am fully on board.

Bayern Munich vs Dortmund Prediction 2: Jamal Musiala to score
Best Odds: 2.87
Bookmaker: bet365
Stake: 8/10

Bayern Munich vs Dortmund Prediction 3: Black and Don-yellows can add to occasion

Without meaning to state the obvious I am going to state the obvious – Dortmund are no mugs. Best odds of 6.50 would potentially suggest otherwise but that does mean we can dig out some value in the related markets.

Die Schwarzgelben carry a serious threat in the final third. Jadon Sancho is back in the Black and Yellow and showing signs of regaining his form and confidence. After a slow start, Niclas Füllkrug has found his feet since moving from Werder Bremen, scoring nine goals in his last 16 league games and also contributing an impressive eight assists across the campaign.

Bet Builder in Munich

Tied on a total of 11 Bundesliga goals is Donyell Malen and it is he who forms the first half of this bet builder. With 60, the Netherlands international has had more attempts at goal than any other Dortmund player and averages a shot every 27 minutes of league action.

The 25-year-old has registered at least two shots in each of his last five away games in the Bundesliga. Also having three attempts at goal in the reverse fixture despite featuring for only 57 minutes.

Arguably his side’s most consistent performer across the campaign, Julian Brandt, is the person who completes the builder. The playmaker has six goals but has impressively supplied ten assists, the most of any Dortmund player and a number only topped by Leroy Sane and Alejandro Grimaldo (both with 11) across the division.

The 27-year-old has had at least one shot in each of his last seven league games away from home. Also taking an attempt at goal in the reverse fixture from his 68 minutes on the pitch.

Bayern Munich vs Dortmund Prediction 3: Donyell Malen Over 1.5 Shots & Julian Brandt Over 0.5 Shots
Best Odds: 1.90
Bookmaker: bet365
Stake: 7/10

Bayern Munich vs Dortmund Prediction odds via bet365 as at 00:00, March 26th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

Bayern Munich vs Dortmund Team News and Possible Lineups: Kane will be able to take Klassiker place

The key team news talking point is whether Harry Kane will shake off his ankle injury in time to take part in his second Der Klassiker. Having returned early from international duty with England Bayern’s 31-goal top scorer completed an individual fitness session at their training ground on Monday morning. Raphael Guerreiro, Kingsley Coman and Noussair Mazraoui also returned from injury to take part in similar sessions.

Niclas Füllkrug was the only Dortmund player to be selected by Julian Nagelsmann for the Germany squad which is a positive when it comes to kick off on Saturday. Marcel Sabitzer serves the second game of his suspension for a straight red card against Bremen while Ramy Bensebaini and Sébastien Haller remain injury doubts.

Bayern Munich possible starting lineup: Ulreich, Kimmich, De Ligt, Dier, Davies, Pavlović, Goretzka, Sané, Müller, Musiala, Kane.

Dortmund possible starting lineup: Kobel, Ryerson, Süle, Schlotterbeck, Maatsen, Özcan, Can, Malen, Brandt, Sancho, Füllkrug.

The Predicted Bayern Munich vs Dortmund Bundesliga Standings by BETSiE

Our in-house predictive model, BETSiE, has had a go at predicting the Bundesliga standings ahead of the Bayern Munich vs Dortmund, currently 2nd vs 4th, fixture by utilising the underlying data from the 2023/24 season up until this point.

For more league-specific BETSiE content including standings, probabilities and predictions, visit her page here – it’s worth it.

Bayern Munich vs Dortmund Standings Prediction

Position	Club	Game	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Bayer Leverkusen	34	25.9	6.1	1.9	82.5	26.9	55.6	83.9
2	Bayern Munich	34	25.2	3.6	5.2	92.7	35.5	57.2	79.2
3	Stuttgart	34	20.7	4.2	9.1	74.0	44.0	30.0	66.3
4	RB Leipzig	34	18.7	6.2	9.1	72.4	41.7	30.8	62.4
5	Dortmund	34	16.0	10.2	7.8	66.9	47.5	19.3	58.3
6	Eintracht Frankfurt	34	11.6	12.4	10.1	51.2	49.4	1.8	47.1
7	Freiburg	34	12.2	7.5	14.3	46.7	58.9	-12.2	44.2
8	Hoffenheim	34	11.7	8.3	14.0	57.6	63.1	-5.5	43.4
9	Werder Bremen	34	11.1	8.5	14.5	45.5	54.4	-8.8	41.7
10	Augsburg	34	9.8	10.4	13.8	48.6	59.5	-10.9	39.7
11	B. Monchengladbach	34	10.1	9.5	14.5	58.0	63.1	-5.1	39.6
12	Wolfsburg	34	9.8	9.4	14.8	42.4	53.4	-11.0	38.8
13	Heidenheim	34	9.8	9.3	14.9	46.3	61.7	-15.4	38.6
14	Union Berlin	34	10.6	6.5	16.8	37.7	54.5	-16.9	38.5
15	Bochum	34	8.6	12.4	13.0	43.7	64.9	-21.2	38.2
16	Mainz	34	6.3	11.6	16.1	32.9	51.7	-18.8	30.6
17	FC Koln	34	5.7	10.3	18.0	28.7	58.6	-29.8	27.5
18	Darmstadt	34	4.3	9.2	20.5	35.6	74.6	-39.0	22.1

Match Stats: Der Klassiker stat attack

In the last seven meetings this fixture has seen a total of 34 goals
Harry Kane has scored 31 times in 26 Bundesliga appearances and with eight games remaining is only 10 goals short of Robert Lewandowski’s single-season record of 41.
Kingsley Coman remains unbeaten in all twelve of his Bundesliga Klassikers to date (11 wins, one draw). No other player in the Bundesliga played in as many Klassikers without suffering a single defeat.
Bayern have scored at least once in the last 14 Klassikers, which is a record.
Youssoufa Moukoko is the only player under the age of 18 to have scored in a Klassiker.
There have been 15 players sent off in Der Klassiker (eight Bayern, seven Dortmund) with ex-Bayern defender Rafinha so far the only player to have been sent off twice.
Thomas Müller’s 26 Bundesliga appearances in Der Klassiker is the most for one club by any currently active player and is the joint holder of most successive wins (9) he could set a new record this weekend.
Reinhold Wosab scored the first two of 356 Bundesliga goals in Der Klassiker for Dortmund in a 2-0 win back in October 1965. However, Bayern lead the overall scoring charts 223 to 133.
On 27 November 1971, Bayern beat Dortmund 11-1 in the highest-scoring Klassiker in Bundesliga history. There have never been more than 12 goals in a single Bundesliga fixture.
Gerd Müller remains the only player to have scored four times in a Klassiker.
Lothar Emmerich scored the only Dortmund hat-trick in the contest in a 6-3 win in September 1967.

Bayern Munich Fixtures: Bayern eye maximum haul

Vs Heidenheim (A)
Vs FC Köln (H)
Vs Union Berlin (A)
Vs Eintracht Frankfurt (H)
Vs VfB Stuttgart (A)

Dortmund Fixtures: Three of top five in next four

Vs VfB Stuttgart (H)
Vs Borussia Mönchengladbach (A)
Vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen (H)
Vs RB Leipzig (A)
Vs FC Augsburg (H)

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