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Horse Racing Bayer Leverkusen vs Mainz Prediction: Team News and Lineups Preview
Scott Thornton brings you his Bayer Leverkusen vs Mainz prediction, team news, lineups and fixtures preview ahead of their Friday night meeting in the Bundesliga.
Bayer Leverkusen’s grip on the league title strengthened last weekend as Bayern Munich succumbed to yet another defeat. Xabi Alonso’s future is the source of much speculation with the Spaniard being touted as the next Liverpool manager. However, there is still work to be done at Leverkusen as they aim to secure their first Bundesliga crown.
Our Bayer Leverkusen vs Mainz prediction is for Bayer Leverkusen to win the match 3-0.
Bayer Leverkusen vs Mainz Prediction, Team News, Standings and Lineups Preview
- Bayer Leverkusen vs Mainz Tip 1: Bayer Leverkusen To Win & Both Teams To Score – No
- Bayer Leverkusen vs Mainz Tip 2: Bayer Leverkusen Asian Handicap -1.75
- Bayer Leverkusen vs Mainz Tip 3: Amine Adli To Score
In this article:
- Bayer Leverkusen vs Mainz Team News and Possible Lineups
- The Bayer Leverkusen vs Mainz , Bundesliga Standings Prediction
- Bayer Leverkusen vs Mainz Match Stats
- Bayer Leverkusen Fixtures
- Mainz Fixtures
- Safer Gambling
Bayer Leverkusen vs Mainz Tip 1: Mainz to Remain Winless on the Road
Germany, Bundesliga, Friday, February 23rd, 19:30 (UK)
Bayer Leverkusen have been the ‘nearly men’ of German football for far too long. The best example of this came in 2002 when the club finished runners-up in the Bundesliga, DFB Pokal and Champions League in the space of 11 days. Fast forward 22 years, and it looks like they are finally about to get over the line as far as the league is concerned. However, they won’t be getting ahead of themselves just yet, so expect a professional display from the league leaders.
The first bet for this match is for the home side to win and keep a clean sheet in the match. Xabi Alonso’s men are averaging 64% possession in their matches in front of their own fans, which means the opposition seldom gets a chance to score. Leverkusen have kept a clean sheet in five of their last six home Bundesliga matches.
Mainz have failed to win an away-league match all season. They are averaging just 0.82 goals per game over that period, so the signs are ominous here.
- Bayer Leverkusen vs Mainz Tip 1: Bayer Leverkusen To Win & Both Teams To Score – No (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 1.90
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 7/10
Bayer Leverkusen vs Mainz Tip 2: Leverkusen in Control Once Again
Leverkusen are the overwhelming favourites, so we need to back them with a handicap to get a suitable price here. We can back the home side to win with a -1.5/-2 handicap at odds of 2.00 with bet365. This means our bet pays out in full if Leverkusen wins by three goals or more. The bet is a half-win should Alonso’s men win by two goals.
This bet won in Leverkusen’s last home match when they put Bayern Munich to the sword. A Late goal from Jeremie Frimpong sealed a 3-0 win. Expect a swashbuckling attacking performance once again as the BayArena gets behind their side. They have never won the league despite finishing 2nd on five occasions, so there will be no let-up in performances in the final few months.
Alonso’s team are averaging 2.91 goals per Bundesliga home game this season. That’s 2.36 more goals per game than they are letting in at the other end. Leverkusen ran out 3-0 winners when these slides squared off earlier in the season.
- Bayer Leverkusen vs Mainz Tip 2: Bayer Leverkusen Asian Handicap -1.75
- Best Odds: 1.90
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 7/10
Bayer Leverkusen vs Mainz Tip 3: Adli Thriving in Recent Weeks
Boniface’s injury has had a huge impact on the composition of Bayer Leverkusen’s attack. Xabi Alonso has been tactically flexible and ensured that the team hasn’t suffered from losing their main goal threat. The flexibility has also been present as Alonso looks to exploit the opposition’s weaknesses. A change that has been made in recent matches is moving Amine Adli to a more advanced role.
Adli played as part of a front pairing alongside Patrik Schich in Leverkusen’s last match against Heidenheim. He started the win over Bayern Munich as the lone striker after earning his place in the starting 11 by coming off the bench and scoring the equaliser in the win over Stuttgart.
Amine now has two goals in his last three matches, having played an average of 65 minutes. The lower minutes played time is largely down to getting just 26 minutes against Bayern. His strong showing last weekend will earn him plenty of time to make an impact here. Adli is averaging 0.34 non-penalty xG per 90 minutes played this season, and we can back him to score at 3.40 with Unibet.
- Bayer Leverkusen vs Mainz Tip 3: Amine Adli To Score
- Best Odds: 3.40
- Bookmaker: Unibet
- Stake: 7/10
Bayer Leverkusen vs Mainz Prediction odds via bet365 as at 09:00, February 19th, 2024. Odds may now differ.
Bayer Leverkusen vs Mainz Team News and Possible Lineups: Business as Usual for Leverkusen
Bayer Leverkusen have coped excellently without Victor Boniface. The Nigerian was grabbing headlines in the early part of the season, but Alonso has adapted the team in his absence. Exequiel Palacios is also sidelined with a muscle injury. Other than that, Leverkusen have no injury worries, which is just as well with European football returning.
Mainz are likely to be without their strikers Nelson Wieper and Jonathan Burkardt for this one. The latter has an infection but could show signs of improvement before the weekend. Weiper, on the other hand, has missed several months with a knee injury. Stefan Bell is also missing in defence.
Bayer Leverkusen possible starting lineup:
Hradecky; Hincapie, Tah, Stanisic; Grimaldo, Andrich, Xhaka, Frimpong; Wirtz, Adli, Schick
Mainz possible starting lineup:
Zetner; Kohr, Van Den Berg, Krauß; Caci, Amiri, Barrerio, Mwene; Sung-Le, Onisiwo, Gruda
The Predicted Bayer Leverkusen vs Mainz Bundesliga Standings by BETSiE
Our in-house predictive model, BETSiE, has had a go at predicting the Bundesliga standings ahead of the Bayer Leverkusen vs Mainz currently 1st vs 17th, fixture by utilising the underlying data from the 2023/24 season up until this point.
For more league-specific BETSiE content including standings, probabilities and predictions, visit her page here – it’s worth it.
Bayer Leverkusen vs Mainz Standings Prediction
| POSITION | CLUB | GAME | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayer Leverkusen | 34 | 25.9 | 6.4 | 1.8 | 84.0 | 25.0 | 59.0 | 84.0 |
| 2 | Bayern Munich | 34 | 25.6 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 93.9 | 33.3 | 60.6 | 80.8 |
| 3 | Stuttgart | 34 | 22.3 | 3.2 | 8.5 | 80.1 | 41.3 | 38.7 | 70.1 |
| 4 | RB Leipzig | 34 | 18.4 | 6.6 | 9.0 | 72.6 | 43.4 | 29.2 | 61.9 |
| 5 | Dortmund | 34 | 16.8 | 9.6 | 7.6 | 67.6 | 47.4 | 20.2 | 60.0 |
| 6 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 34 | 12.1 | 10.8 | 11.1 | 48.1 | 47.9 | 0.2 | 47.1 |
| 7 | Freiburg | 34 | 12.6 | 7.1 | 14.3 | 43.9 | 56.8 | -12.9 | 44.8 |
| 8 | Hoffenheim | 34 | 11.7 | 8.7 | 13.6 | 58.6 | 63.5 | -4.9 | 43.7 |
| 9 | Werder Bremen | 34 | 11.5 | 7.9 | 14.6 | 47.9 | 54.9 | -6.9 | 42.4 |
| 10 | Augsburg | 34 | 9.9 | 10.9 | 13.2 | 49.8 | 58.9 | -9.2 | 40.5 |
| 11 | Heidenheim | 34 | 10.4 | 8.7 | 15.0 | 46.2 | 62.0 | -15.9 | 39.7 |
| 12 | B. Monchengladbach | 34 | 9.7 | 9.8 | 14.5 | 55.3 | 62.7 | -7.4 | 38.9 |
| 13 | Bochum | 34 | 8.4 | 12.9 | 12.7 | 41.4 | 60.3 | -18.9 | 38.2 |
| 14 | Wolfsburg | 34 | 9.9 | 8.0 | 16.2 | 39.8 | 53.9 | -14.1 | 37.6 |
| 15 | Union Berlin | 34 | 9.9 | 6.0 | 18.1 | 35.6 | 56.1 | -20.5 | 35.7 |
| 16 | Mainz | 34 | 5.6 | 12.3 | 16.2 | 30.8 | 51.6 | -20.8 | 28.9 |
| 17 | FC Koln | 34 | 5.8 | 9.5 | 18.7 | 28.8 | 63.1 | -34.3 | 26.8 |
| 18 | Darmstadt | 34 | 4.4 | 8.5 | 21.1 | 35.1 | 77.2 | -42.2 | 21.7 |
Match Stats: Leverkusen Remain Unmatched
- Bayer Leverkusen are conceding an average of 0.64 goals per game; meaning they have the best defensive record in the league this season.
- Alonso’s side are unbeaten in 32 matches in all competitions. They have won 28 and drawn four.
- Mainz have failed to win any of their 11 Bundesliga matches on the road this season.
- Karnevalsverin have won just two of their last 10 head-to-heads with Leverkusen.
Bayer Leverkusen Fixtures: Alonso’s Men Can Extend the Gap
- Vs Koln (A)
- Vs Wolfbsurg (H)
- Vs Freiburg (A)
- Vs Hoffenheim (H)
- Vs Fortuna (H)
Mainz Fixtures: Mainz Braced for Tough Run
- Vs Borussia Monchengladbach (H)
- Vs Bayern Munich (H)
- Vs Bochum (H)
- Vs RB Leipzig (H)
- Vs Darmstadt (H)
SAFER GAMBLING
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