Backing Goals in UCL Quarter-Finals Might Be a Risky Bet

Our in-house prediction tool, forecasts a thrilling goal fest for the first leg of the Champions League quarter-finals. 

According to BETSiE, all four ties are expected to feature more than 2.5 goals, with the lowest projected goal total at 2.81 for PSG versus Aston Villa and the highest at 3.47 for Barcelona against Borussia Dortmund. 

Bookmakers share the anticipation of a high-scoring weekend, but could this offer savvy bettors a chance to go against the grain? International football expert Daniele Fisichella has analyzed Tuesday’s fixtures. 

Was last season an outlier?

Our in-house tool predicts a total of 12.18 goals will be scored in the first leg of the quarter-finals, averaging 3.04 goals per game — slightly below the current competition average of 3.22. In the 2023/24 season, the quarter-final first legs saw 18 goals scored, averaging 4.5 per game, with all matches featuring goals from both teams. 

However, this contrasts sharply with the 2022/23 season, which saw just eight goals across four matches, all ending with only one team scoring. Similarly, the 2021/22 campaign recorded 10 goals over four games, at an average of 2.5 goals per match. 

Perhaps last season was merely an outlier? While Both Teams to Score – Yes and Over 2.5 Goals have been successful in 18 out of 32 knockout games (56.25%) so far in this competition, each match should be examined individually. 

Arsenal, particularly steadfast at home, boast the third-best xGA (expected goals against) figure of 0.86 per 90 minutes, dropping to 0.73 at the Emirates. Only one of Arsenal’s five home games (20%) and two of Real Madrid’s six away matches (33%) in the competition have ended with both teams scoring. Arsenal’s defensive structure is notably solid, and under Mikel Arteta, they might be able to secure a result at home, putting them in a strong position. 

However, lacking a traditional number nine, Arsenal may find it challenging to outscore Real Madrid over two legs. Real Madrid could struggle if they attempt to build against Arsenal’s press, as Arteta’s side excels in pressing, ranking second in the Premier League for forced turnovers in dangerous areas. However the holders have effectively faced high-press teams like Stuttgart, Atalanta, and Manchester City in the competition, so Carlo Ancelotti will have a robust game plan on Tuesday night. 

Injury-plagued Bavarians are still the favourites

Bayern Munich lead the Champions League with an xGD (expected goals difference) of +1.46, while PSG follow with an xGD of +1.01. 

However, Bayern face a slew of absentees, including Jamal Musiala, who ranks third for chances created (8) in the competition, along with Alphonso Davies, Dayot Upamecano, and Ito. Harry Kane, the top player for xG (expected goals) with 9.2 in this tournament, is also a doubt following a persistent injury after their win against Augsburg. 

This might present an opportunity for Inter Milan, the underdogs for this encounter; Bayern Munich are priced at average odds of 1.69 to win, 0.25 higher than their previous meeting with Inter in November 2022. 

However, Both Teams to Score – No has won in all five of Inter’s Champions League away games this season, as the Nerazzurri average just 1.32 xG away from home. Against similar opposition, they’ve generated only 0.76 xG versus Manchester City and 0.32 xG against Leverkusen. The Nerazzurri last scored more than twice away in all competitions on January 26 against struggling Serie A side Lecce (4-0), making it unlikely they’ll breach Bayern’s defence more than once in this fixture.

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