Atletico Madrid vs Inter Prediction: Team News and Lineups Preview

Qualification to the Champions League quarter-finals is up for grabs in the Spanish capital after Marko Arnautovic gave Inter the advantage in the first leg. Our Italian football expert, Daniele Fisichella, has prepared Atletico Madrid vs Inter prediction, team news, lineups and fixtures preview for you.

The Neroazzurri are cruising towards their 20th Serie A title, whereas this represents the biggest game of Los Colchoneros’ season. Our Atletico Madrid vs Inter prediction is for Atletico to win the match 2-1.

• Atletico Madrid vs Inter Prediction 1: Atletico Madrid Asian Handicap +0.25
• Atletico Madrid vs Inter Prediction 2: Both Teams To Score – Yes
• Atletico Madrid vs Inter Prediction 3: Over 2.25 Goals

Atletico Madrid vs Inter Prediction 1: fortress ‘Metropolitano’ awaits last year’s finalists

Champions League, Round of 16, second leg, Wednesday, March 13th, 20:00 (UK)

Inter fully deserved their win in the first leg, and if any criticism could be moved to Simone Inaghi’s men is that they squandered a couple of good scoring chances.

At San Siro the Neroazzurri showed calmness and self-belief which have grown since their amazing run in the Champions League last year.

Inter have only lost three of their last 19 games in Europe top’s competition and kept 12 clean sheets since the start of last season. Yann Sommer did not have a single save to make in Milan as Atletico were often pinged back in their own half.

But Atletico is renowned for struggling away from home, where they’ve lost seven of the last ten.

At the Metropolitano is a totally different story also because, since last campaign, the Spaniards are no longer playing on the counter attack and have ditched the four-men defence.

A significant tactical change from Diego Simeone that has made Los Colchoneros much more prolific and entertaining to watch.

This season in La Liga they’ve only scored two goals less than Real Madrid and Barcelona (both 56, against Atleti’s 54), and in all competitions only one less than Inter (82 vs 83) so far.

• Atletico Madrid vs Inter Prediction 1: Atletico Madrid Asian Handicap +0.25 (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.79
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 9/10

Atletico Madrid vs Inter Prediction 2: Neroazzurri won’t park the bus

This Atletico side has nothing in common with the one that won la La Liga ten years ago and reached two Champions League finals.

In fact they can no longer count on top defenders such as Godin, Miranda or Alderwield and have been almost forced to change their approach.

During Atletico’s ‘golden era’ they reached the top thanks to their mean defence: for example, they conceded 24 times when they won La Liga and in 2015/2016 they’ve only let in 18 goals domestically.

This season, with 11 games to go, they conceded 29 goals in Spain and only kept three clean sheets in their last 13 Champions League games.

However the biggest contributing factor to Atletico’s success is their home form: since mid-January 2023 they’ve only lost once at the Wanda Metropolitano (0-1 to Sevilla in Copa del Rey) and their overall numbers are impressive: 28 victories, two draws and that sole defeat.

They’ve celebrated 80 goals in front of their crowd (average 2.58 x game) and they’re the only side able to beat Real Madrid (3-1 at the end of September in La Liga).

No doubt Inter are in for a tough night, but a side like the Neroazzurri, who are dominating Serie A, and have taken the lead in 31 out of 35 games this season, won’t just sit back and wait to hit on the counter.

• Atletico Madrid vs Inter Prediction 2: Both Teams To Score – Yes (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.80
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 5/10

Atletico Madrid vs Inter Prediction 3: get set for a long night

Inter’s style of play has massively evolved since the beginning of last season, and reaching the final, where they gave Manchester City a tremendously hard time, has boosted their confidence.

The visitors can be extremely hard to break down (they’ve kept 24 clean sheets in all competitions and conceded only 20 goals so far), but also know how to manage the rhythm of games.

Facing teams who like to dominate possession, like Barcelona and Benfica last year, has helped the Neroazzurri to develop an ability to defend while keeping possession, starving opponents of the ball and patiently waiting for an opening.

But Inter can also defend and dig deep if they need to; players like Acerbi, Darmian and Pavard provide plenty of experience in this sense.

Fifteen of their last 20 Champions League games have produced less than three goals as Inter have scored more than twice away from home only on two occasions (both 3-3 draws against Barcelona and Benfica) since last season.

Atletico Madrid will press high as they always do when they play at home, but Inter won’t fret.

Simone Inzaghi’s record in European and domestic knockout competitions with the Milanese side is great: 13 wins, seven draws and only two defeats (against City last year and Liverpool in 2021/2022).

In such a tight knockout fixture, the first goal might be massive as this game, among all the Champions League ties, is the one most likely to go to extra time and even penalties.

• Atletico Madrid vs Inter Prediction 3: Over 2.25 Goals (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.85
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 6/10

Atletico Madrid vs Inter Prediction odds via bet365 as at 20:30, March 6th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

Atletico Madrid vs Inter Team News and Possible Lineups: important returns in both camps

Antoine Griezmann has been sidelined for a couple of weeks due to an ankle injury suffered in the first leg. The Frenchman should be available for next Wednesday and form a partnership with Morata who came off the bench at San Siro. Together they’ve scored almost half (46%, 38 goals) of the hosts goals in all competitions this campaign.

Pablo Barrios, who did not start in Milan, should play in midfield with Marcos Llorente deployed as right wing-back.

“We were close to what we were looking for, which was to block a bit of the attacks that a team like Inter produces,” said manager Simone after the first leg.

“In the end, they took advantage of the many balls we lost and hit on the counterattack.”

For Inter the big news is that Çalhanoğlu is fully recovered after the muscular injury suffered in the warm up before the game at Lecce. The Turkish international should play from the start after making the bench at the weekend in Bologna. Thuram will replace Arnautovic in the starting XI as Inzaghi is looking to confirm the same formation that won the first leg.

“Our only regret is not having won by more goals, because the match in Madrid will be an intense one,” said Inzaghi after the match.

Atletico Madrid possible starting lineup: Oblak; Lino, Hermoso, Gabriel, Witsel, Marcos Llorente; Barrios, Koke, De Paul; Morata, Griezmann

Inter possible starting lineup: Sommer; Pavard, Acerbi, Bastoni; Darmian, Barella, Çalhanoğlu, Mkhitaryan, Dimarco; Thuram, Martínez

Match Stats: Inter are in good form against La Liga sides

• Atletico Madrid are unbeaten in the last 26 La Liga matches at the Wanda Metropolitano.
• Inter haven’t lost away since 21 May 2023 (3-1 defeat at Napoli). They’ve collected 13 wins and two draws on the road, scoring 39 times and conceding only 10 times.
• The hosts have remained unbeaten in five of the last nine games against Italian sides in the Champions League, as before Inter they lost to Juventus (twice) and AC Milan (1-0 at the Metropolitano)
• Inter are unbeaten in the last five games against Spanish oppositions (2W, 3D), having lost all the previous five matches (four of them against Real Madrid in Champions League and the Europa League 2020 final against Sevilla).

Atletico Madrid Fixtures: home form will be key

• Vs Barcelona (H)
• Vs Villarreal (A)
• Vs Girona (H)
• Vs Alavés (A)
• Vs Athletic Bilbao (H)

Inter Fixtures: four fixtures at San Siro

• Vs Napoli (H)
• Vs Empoli (H)
• Vs Udinese (A)
• Vs Cagliari (H)
• Vs AC Milan (A)

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