Are doomed Southampton a good bet for under 10.5 points?

Southampton have lost 11 of their last 12 Premier League matches, leaving them on nine points from their first 29 fixtures. 

Owning a historically bad record so far this season, bookies are offering a special outright market on Saints to finish with under 10.5 points.

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Daunting Fixture List 

Let’s start with the maths. Southampton cannot draw more than one match for this bet to win, which is why we have odds of 8.00 at bet365. A single victory in their last nine league fixtures would take them over this line, and a pair of draws would get them to 11 points (the current lowest points tally in Premier League history). 

A trip to Leicester in early May is the Saints’ best shot at a victory. Other than that, their remaining fixture list is challenging. They face an in-form Crystal Palace side in midweek, who have won four of their last five. Then it’s a trip to Tottenham before facing Aston Villa and West Ham, the latter of which has improved considerably over the last couple of months.

Southampton host Fulham at the end of the month, who have one of the better away records in the Premier League. The season rounds out with Manchester City, who are likely to be fighting for a Champions League spot, a trip to Goodison Park to face a rejuvenated Everton, and a matchup with Arsenal. Oddly, the clash with Arsenal could be the best opportunity for Southampton to add to their points tally. 

The Gunners will not have anything to play for in the Premier League on the final day of the season. If they’re still in the Champions League, their attention will be focused on that. If they aren’t, it has the potential to be a typical surprising end-of-season result. 

Historically Bad Season

Southampton are on course for the third-worst goal difference in Premier League history. Their -1.40 expected goal difference per 90 minutes is by far the worst since 2017/18 (when the statistic became publicly available). Only two teams have been worse than -1 xGD per 90 since then, and no other team has been worse than -1.1. 

BETSiE is projecting a points tally of 15.6. This bet, at odds of 8.00, is essentially backing the Saints to lost two additional games they are expected to win and be six points worse off.

This Southampton team has been awful, even compared with the struggles other newly promoted sides have endured in recent years. They have been overmatched in the Premier League from start to finish, and despite only having six points on Christmas Day, their form has somehow declined further. 

A 12.5% implied probability in this market seems fair. It might feel like there’s a long way to go in the remainder of this season, but it wouldn’t be surprising if Southampton went winless given their poor performances throughout the season. Their underlying metrics indicate this campaign has been a pretty fair reflection of their competitiveness, and the decision to hire Ivan Jurić has had no impact on their results. 

Nervy Wait

There’s always the risk of a fluke win. Perhaps other teams lose focus in the final weeks of the season if they haven’t got much to play for. It’s a pretty low risk, though, given how emphatically Southampton have been getting beaten since the turn of the year. In their last seven matches, they have suffered five defeats by multiple goals – Ipswich and Wolves are the only teams who didn’t win by two or more clear goals.

There’s some value in taking the 8.00 price. It’ll be a nervy wait for a pay out if Saints don’t pick up two points for the final couple of weeks of the season, but there’s the potential for sizeable returns by betting against arguably the worst team in Premier League history. 

Safer Gambling

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