Are comebacks a value bet in the UCL quarter-finals?

After the first leg, four teams have emerged as clear favourites to advance to the Champions League semi-finals. According to BETSiE, the four winners of the initial ties each have over an 81% chance of progressing. 

Barcelona leads the pack with a 99.6% probability following their emphatic 4-0 success over Borussia Dortmund. Meanwhile, Italian champions Inter Milan face the tightest battle but still enjoy a substantial advantage over Bayern Munich. 

Historically, overturning first-leg deficits in Europe’s top competition has proven difficult, yet it is also a stage for some of the sport’s most memorable comebacks. Our European football expert, Daniele Fisichella, outlines strategies for approaching the second leg of the quarter-finals.

More of the same from Barça

In the history of the Champions League, only one team has ever overturned a 4-0 deficit after the first leg, and it was a memorable feat by Barcelona featuring Messi, Neymar, and Suarez against PSG in the 2016/17 season. 

This history would suggest that Borussia Dortmund are unlikely to reverse their 4-0 defeat in Catalonia on Wednesday. The Blaugrana are regarded as arguably the best team in Europe, showing no mercy to their opponents. Conceding four goals to the likes of Raphinha and Lewandowski is not uncommon; indeed, Barça have scored four or more goals in 20 matches across all competitions this season.

While Borussia Dortmund have shown improvement in recent weeks, the absence of centre-back Nico Schlotterbeck led manager Niko Kovač to doubt their ability to keep a clean sheet against Europe’s best attack. This resulted in a tactical shift from a back-three to a back-four as they chased the game after conceding an early goal. 

Consequently, Dortmund’s defence appeared exposed, conceding 18 shots and 3.67 xG, as Barcelona netted four goals in a Champions League knockout tie for the first time since their 4-1 victory over Roma in the 2017/18 quarter-finals. A remarkable performance that propelled Hansi Flick’s side to the status of bookmakers’ favourites to win the competition, with odds of 3.00.

Although Borussia Dortmund have lost just one (2-1 vs Manchester City in 2020/21) of their last nine home Champions League knockout ties (5W, 2D), they have never overturned a first-leg deficit larger than two goals in Europe.

With a projected goals tally of 3.44, it seems unlikely that Dortmund will outscore Barça on Tuesday. Therefore, backing the visitors to win, even if the average odds for a Barcelona victory (1.82) are lower than when Hansi Flick’s side won 3-2 at the Westfalenstadion during the group stage (1.98), appears to be a sound choice.

Back the goals and you won’t be wrong

Aston Villa were outclassed at the Parc des Princes and can consider themselves fortunate to come away with only a two-goal deficit.

In fact the Ligue 1 champions dominated the possession (75%) as Villa conceded an xGA of 1.97, their second-highest tally in the competition, after their 3-2 win in Leipzig (2.91 xGA) and faced the most shots on target so far (11).

Fresh from clinching a fourth consecutive domestic title, PSG have set their sights on a bigger prize, one that eluded Aston Villa’s manager Unai Emery during his tenure in the French capital. 

There’s no doubt PSG, the most attacking side in the Champions League with 872 attacks, 93 corners, and 293 dribbles attempted, will head into the second leg at Villa Park with the same attacking mentality they displayed at Anfield last month. But do Aston Villa stand a chance of overturning the two-goal deficit?

While the Parisians boast a strong away record, Emery will be aware that comebacks are not unprecedented. Nine teams have faced a two-goal deficit after an away leg in a Champions League knockout round and successfully reversed the score at home. The most recent was Juventus, overturning a 2-0 first-leg loss to Atletico Madrid in the 2018/19 last-16 by winning 3-0 in Turin.

The Parisians have twice squandered two-goal leads at the halfway stage of a Champions League knockout tie, both times against Premier League clubs: Chelsea in 2013/14 and Manchester United in 2018/19. However Villa’s solitary experience of overcoming a two-goal first-leg deficit came in the 2002 Intertoto Cup, when they beat Zurich 3-0 at home after a 2-0 defeat in Switzerland.

According to BETSiE, this match holds a 26.5% projected chance of ending in a draw, the highest among the second-leg quarter-finals. With average odds for an Aston Villa win at 3.38, lower than when the Villans triumphed 1-0 over Bayern Munich in the group stage (4.45), backing the home team seems unwise. A more prudent choice might be to stake on PSG’s Over 2.75 goals Asian Line at 1.83, a bet that has paid off in three away Champions League matches this season.

Never say never at the Bernabéu

Betting on the goals market might be a wise strategy for Wednesday’s ties, considering the projected goals total for the second leg of the quarter-finals stands at 11.56. Although this is lower than the projected total of 12.18 for the first leg, where 14 goals were scored, the fact that Bayern Munich—boasting the highest xG (expected goals) value in the competition at 32.6—and holders Real Madrid both need to secure a victory to advance, could drive the goals line higher.

Recent history suggests that no lead is safe at the Santiago Bernabéu, but Arsenal, after an outstanding first-leg performance, have reasons to be optimistic. In their match at the Emirates Stadium, the Spaniards registered just 0.50 xG, their lowest in the competition this season and their poorest xG record since the 2022/23 semi-final second leg against Manchester City, which they lost 4-0. Arsenal’s defensive organisation and pressing could prove effective again in Madrid, though an early goal from Los Blancos could change the dynamic.

A comeback from Carlo Ancelotti’s men seems improbable, considering that teams have taken a three-goal lead into the second leg of a Champions League tie on 47 occasions, with only four successful turnarounds. The most recent instance was Liverpool’s 4-3 aggregate victory over Barcelona in 2019. 

The Gunners, on the other hand, are confident they can score on Wednesday—Mikel Arteta’s side have averaged 2.5 goals per game in the Champions League this season, with only Barcelona (3.3) boasting a better ratio. Furthermore, the Both Teams To Score – Yes bet has won in Real Madrid’s last ten Champions League matches at the Bernabéu, which have averaged 4.5 goals.

But when it comes to Real Madrid, never say never. In the Champions League era, Madrid have a one-in-three success rate of overturning a first-leg deficit. They have been behind in 15 two-legged ties, managing to progress from five. 

BETSiE assigns Real the highest projected chance of victory (47.5%) among the four teams playing the second leg at home. However, the average odds (1.67) for a Los Blancos victory have not been this low since their 3-1 home defeat to AC Milan on matchday four (1.41), suggesting that betting on Arsenal with an Asian Handicap of +0.75 offers good value.

A fast start in Milan

Playing at the Allianz Arena against a depleted Bayern Munich side—without Musiala, Neuer, Davies, and Upamecano—was a golden opportunity, and Inter, achieved the most significant victory of their season so far. 

Bayern Munich had not lost at home in the Champions League for four years, a streak of 22 consecutive matches, but a single-goal advantage does not guarantee a comfortable second leg for the Nerazzurri.

The Bavarians are projected to have just an 18.1% chance of reaching the semi-finals. If they fail to qualify and PSG advance, it will mirror the recent pattern seen in both the 2023/24 (Real Madrid) and 2022/23 (Manchester City) seasons, where only one of the previous campaign’s semi-finalists progressed from the quarter-finals, underlying the unpredictability of Europe’s premier competition.

Inter Milan are unbeaten in their last 15 Champions League games at San Siro, boasting 13 wins and 2 draws. However, memories of their last exit from a European competition after winning the first leg away—in the 1988/89 UEFA Cup against Bayern Munich (2-0 in Germany, followed by a 3-1 loss in Milan)—will send shivers down the spines of their supporters.

Vincent Kompany’s men lead the competition for away xG (1.94), but they are projected to score only 1.32 goals on Wednesday. The question is, can they level the tie in the first half? 

Notably, the last two Inter Milan Champions League games have ended with both teams scoring and three goals in total. However, since Simone Inzaghi took charge in 2021, “Both Teams To Score – No” has been a winning bet in 30 of their 40 Champions League matches. 

On the other hand, Bayern have scored at least once in their past four knockout matches on the road, with their last failure to do so occurring in Italy, against Lazio, last season in the Round of 16 first leg (1-0). With the projected goals total at 2.97, backing over 1 goal in the first 45 minutes could be a prudent choice.

Safer Gambling

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.