All But Settled Champions League Ties Still Offer Betting Value

After the first leg of the Champions League Round of 16, four teams appear almost assured of their progression to the quarter-finals. 

According to our in-house projection model, BETSiE, Bayern Munich, Aston Villa, and Inter Milan have between a 96.6% and 99.2% chance of advancing to the next stage. Meanwhile, bookmakers have stopped offering odds on Arsenal’s qualification following their emphatic 7-1 victory in Eindhoven. 

However, as our European football expert Daniele Fisichella points out, even seemingly settled ties can present profitable betting opportunities.

Arteta’s men to show some mercy

In the history of the Champions League, no away team has ever overturned a first-leg deficit of three or more goals. 

The only away side to progress after losing the first leg by two goals was Manchester United in the 2018/2019 season, defeating PSG 3-1 in Paris thanks to Marcus Rashford’s stoppage-time penalty, after a 2-0 loss in the first leg. 

This makes PSV’s mission to overcome a six-goal deficit appear impossible, especially given that Arsenal have won without conceding in eight of their last nine Champions League matches at the Emirates. 

So, should we expect Mikel Arteta’s men to dominate once more? The Gunners defeated Peter Bosz’s side at home last season, with three goals in the first half, but that was during the group stage phase. Even then, Arsenal scored four times from 2.30 expected goals (xG). 

On Tuesday, they recorded the biggest xG overperformance (+4.98) in the competition, scoring seven goals from eight shots on target. It seems unlikely they will replicate this feat. 

Indeed, BETSiE projects them to score just over two goals (2.37), making a bet on Under 1.25 Goals in the first half an interesting proposition. At odds of 1.67, if either team leads 1-0 at halftime, you’ll win half a stake.

History favours the Nerazzurri and Emery

Only nine times in the history of the Champions League has a team that lost the first leg at home successfully advanced. 

Mounting a comeback away from home was even more challenging before the 2021/22 season, when the away goals rule was abolished. 

Since then, only PSG managed to overturn a deficit away from home last season, and that was a marginal one-goal deficit. Therefore, both Feyenoord and Club Brugge face daunting challenges in Milan and Birmingham, respectively.

The Dutch side, managed by Robin Van Persie, have struggled defensively, failing to keep a clean sheet in their last 15 away European matches, including the 2021/2022 Conference League final. 

During this period, they have conceded 33 goals, averaging 2.2 per game. If they concede against Inter on Tuesday, they’ll need to score at least three times to force extra time. 

While Feyenoord have managed to score three goals in away fixtures against Girona, Benfica, and Manchester City this season, they face Inter’s strong defence, which is the best in Europe with just one goal conceded in nine games.

Under Simone Inzaghi (pictured above), the Italian champions have kept a clean sheet in just over 60% of their Champions League matches, the highest rate for any manager with at least 30 games in the competition. 

Despite this, considering that “Both Teams To Score – No” has prevailed in all of Inter’s Champions League games so far, with the hosts maintaining a clean sheet in all four home matches, the real value bet may lie in backing both teams to score at odds of 2.00 or taking Feyenoord with a +1.5 Asian Handicap. 

In fact, the visitors will not have a match over the weekend, potentially giving them a slight advantage over Inter, who are deeply engaged in a tight Scudetto race.

Villa are in ‘safe hands’

Aston Villa are firmly in the driving seat to reach the quarter-finals of Europe’s top club competition for the first time since the 1982/83 season. 

Unai Emery’s side can draw on their experience from last season’s Conference League and have won nine of their last 11 European matches at Villa Park. 

However, their only defeat came by a two-goal margin, losing 4-2 to Olympiacos in the 2023/24 Conference League semi-final. A similar result on Wednesday would push the match into extra time.

Villa have lost just two home games all season, with only one—a 2-0 defeat to Arsenal in August 2024—by more than a one-goal margin. Given that Club Brugge boast the lowest xG per game (1.21) among the remaining 16 teams and rank 44th in the Champions League for xG per game, another goal fest seems unlikely. 

In fact these two sides have already met twice in the competition, producing an average non-penalty xG total of just 1.61 per game.

Two additional factors might contribute to a low-scoring Villa success. 

Firstly, the club from the West Flanders has never won in England, with two draws and 14 losses. Secondly, Villa’s goalkeeper, Emiliano Martínez (pictured above), is in exceptional form, topping the list for goals prevented in the Champions League with 4.3. 

With BETSiE projecting a total of 2.7 goals, backing the Under 3 Goals Asian Line appears the most logical choice.

Kompany & Kane are the value bet

The projected goals total for the Round of 16 second leg is set at 23.88, averaging 2.98 goals per game. 

This suggests that Bayer Leverkusen, who suffered a 3-0 defeat in Munich, face slim chances of overturning the tie and advancing to the Champions League quarter-finals. 

A low-scoring match would spell elimination for the German champions, and with the average goals per game dropping from 3.27 in the league stage to 3.25, more low-scoring affairs may be expected in the knockout stage. 

Last season, for instance, the second leg of the Round of 16 saw just 22 goals, averaging 2.75 per match.

Both Teams To Score – Yes was successful in five out of eight fixtures last season, but Leverkusen realistically stand a chance against Vincent Kompany’s side only if they manage to keep a clean sheet. 

This is not beyond their reach, as Die Werkself have not conceded in all four of their Champions League home matches. 

However, they have averaged just 2.25 goals in those games, not enough to secure qualification in this case. Meanwhile, Bayern Munich’s average xG of 2.5 per game is the highest in the Champions League, with PSG ranking second at 2.18 xG.

Boasting three players—Joshua Kimmich (11), Michael Olise (8), and Jamal Musiala (7)—in the competition’s top five for big chances created, Bayern appear poised to exploit Leverkusen’s defensive vulnerabilities. 

Indeed, Xabi Alonso’s side have already conceded 42 goals this season, matching their total from the end of last season, despite having played 15 fewer games.

Their first-leg victory was their best performance of the season, and as a result, their odds of winning this season’s Champions League shortened from 9.00 to 6.50, indicating bookmakers’ confidence in their qualification for the quarter-finals.

Our in-house model assigns Bayern Munich a 39.9% chance of winning the match, closely aligning with the current odds of 2.55 (39.2% implied probability), compared to Leverkusen’s victory odds at 2.60, implying a probability of 38.5%, which is 3.5% higher than BETSiE’s assessment of Alonso’s men. 

Therefore, backing the visitors with a 0 Asian Handicap represents a value bet in this case.

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