NBA Best Bets: Monday, March 21st

Another solid Monday night in the NBA with 9 games on the docket. I’ve found my 2 best value bets of the bunch, and I’m coming in strong with some solid stakes. We have the 76ers taking on the Miami Heat in Philly, as well as the OKC Thunder taking on the Boston Celtics at Paycom Center.

NBA Best Bets Monday, March 21st

• Philadelphia 76ers vs Miami Heat: Heat to Win at 1.87 
• OKC Thunder vs Boston Celtics: Thunder: +14.0 at 2.01 

Odds as at 2 pm March 11stth 2022. Odds may now differ.

Philadelphia 76ers vs Miami Heat Best Bet

Mon, March 21. 23:30 (UK time)

The Philadelphia 76ers are going strong heading into the final stretch of the season, sitting in 3rd place in the eastern conference with 43 wins and 27 losses. They have won 6 of their last 10 games, but are coming off an unexpected 93-88 loss to the Toronto Raptors. They have been having trouble getting their offence going recently, and are struggling to get open looks from beyond the arc, resulting in just 12.2 three-pointers per game, good for 20th in the league. Their defence usually performs well against the Heat, with all 3 of their games this season being very low-scoring, but they have lost 2 of those encounters.

The 76ers played last night, and I expect fatigue to be a huge issue in this game. They allowed the Raptors to get 20 offensive rebounds in their last game and made just 7 of their 27 three-point attempts to go along with 50 points in the paint allowed. Effort is definitely an issue at this point, and I don’t see it getting any better tonight. They are also one of the slowest teams in the NBA, ranking 28th in pace rating as well as 30th in field-goal attempts per game.

But the Miami Heat are in excellent shape at the moment, still sitting atop the eastern conference with 47 wins and 23 losses, with 7 wins from their last 10 games. Although their offence has struggled to get going at times due to their slow pace of play, they are one of the most efficient teams in the league, draining 37.3% of their 3-point attempts and netting 25.6 assists per game. But the majority of their success this year hasn’t actually come from their attack, but their elite defence.

The Miami Heat rank 5th in defensive rating on the season and have allowed an average of 104.8 points per game, good for 4th place in the NBA. They also keep opponents to just 83.9 field-goal attempts per game along with an opponent 3-point percentage of just 33.9%, whilst forcing 15.2 turnovers per game. The Heat are an elite defensive team, which they have demonstrated against the 76ers time and time again. Their most recent encounter was a 99-82 win for Miami, and I’m expecting to see more of the same in this game. The Heat are one of the best away sides against the spread, covering in 62.9% of their games, and they will be coming into this game well-rested and ready.

• Selection: Heat -1.5
• Best odds: 1.90 (Bet365)
• Stakes: 8/10

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OKC Thunder vs Boston Celtics Best Bet

Tue, March 22.  00:00 (UK time)

Yes, I’m backing the OKC Thunder to cover the spread yet again, so what? It’s only because they have been the most profitable NBA side to bet on this season. They’ve covered the spread in 62.7% of their games this year, as well as in 4 of their last 5 games. They are playing against one of the hottest teams in the league at the moment, but their track record of performing well against much stronger teams is more than enough reason to back them. But it’s not just that.

The OKC Thunder actually aren’t as bad as their record might suggest. With 20 wins and 51 losses, they are 14th in the western conference and have won just 1 of their last 10 games. But the huge spreads they are getting on a nightly basis allow them to have an excellent ATS record, and with bettors usually backing the other side, this gives the Thunder excellent betting value. They have also been a solid defensive team, believe it or not, ranking 16th in defensive rating this season, allowing 110.7 points per game. Not too bad. There is a solid chance that Shai-Gilgeous Alexander will play in this game, which would significantly improve their offensive performance, and I have no problem backing them tonight.

The Boston Celtics are rolling at the moment, winning 8 of their last 10 games and riding a 3-game winning streak. They are coming off a 124-104 victory over the Denver Nuggets last night at Ball Arena and will be travelling to Oklahoma City for this match-up. Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum tallied 30 points apiece but played 34 and 33 minutes respectively, and fatigue should be an issue against the Thunder. The Celtics are one of the slowest teams in the league, ranking 24th in the league in pace rating, compared to the OKC Thunder who are in the middle of the pack.

The Celtics have performed well this season, and are now looking to steal 3rd place in the east from the 76ers. But their offence hasn’t fared as well as one would expect given their record. They are making just 12.8 three-pointers per game on a percentage of just 34.8%. That said, their defence has been elite, allowing just 103.6 points per game, and keeping opponents to just 33.6% from beyond the arc. The Celtics aren’t built to get a lot of blowout victories, and the 14.0 point spread isn’t looking very favourable. They won their first encounter against the OKC Thunder by 6 points, and I’m expecting a similar result tonight.

• Selection: OKC Thunder +14.0
• Best odds: 2.01 (Marathonbet)
• Stakes: 9/10

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