NBA Best Bets: Friday April 1st

It’s April Fool’s, but no jokes from me today. We went 0/2 on our best bets on Wednesday night, and I’m looking to bounce back quickly as always. We have 12 games scheduled for tonight, and I’m looking for value with the Grizzlies (again) and the Blazers. The Grizzlies as home underdogs are always worth backing, and the 15-point handicap in San Antonio has set off my value detector. Have a look at my selections below.

NBA Best Bets Friday, April 1st

• Memphis Grizzlies vs Phoenix Suns: Grizzlies +7.5
• San Antonio Spurs vs Portland Trail Blazers: Blazers +15.0

Odds as at 2 pm April 1st 2022. Odds may now differ.

Memphis Grizzlies vs Phoenix Suns Best Bet

Sat, Apr 2. 01:00 (UK)

Grizzlies as underdogs? I’ll take it! The Grizzlies have been one of the most positives surprises of the season, sitting 2nd in the western conference with 54 wins and 23 losses, and 6 games clear of 3rd-placed Dallas. They don’t have much else to accomplish this year, but they are still red-hot, riding a 6-game winning streak and coming off a victory against the Spurs in San Antonio. They’ll be coming back to Memphis to welcome the Suns to FedEx Forum for the 3rd time this season, where they have a league-best record ATS 50-27.

The Grizzlies have consistently been one of the best teams in the league all season long, and their balance of overpowering offence and tight defence will get them far in the playoffs. The Grizz have ranked 4th both in offensive and defensive rating this season, whilst averaging 115.4 points per game- good for top of the NBA. The Grizzlies are also one of the fastest teams in the league with a pace rating of 100.1, whilst attempting the most field goals in the NBA with 94.2. They really do provide a lot of betting value, especially as home underdogs – a situation in which they have covered 6 of 8 games this season.

But the Phoenix Suns are the top team in the western conference with 62 wins and 14 losses this season. They have an 8-game cushion and can allow themselves to rest until the playoffs. They are on a 9-game winning streak and coming after a 107-103 victory over the Golden State Warriors. The Suns had a very mediocre offensive night against the Warriors, only making 7 of 28 threes, and netting just 20 assists.

But as good as they’ve been this season, they haven’t been as dominant as one would expect given their record. The Suns have ranked 8th in offensive and 14th in defensive rating over the last 5 games. They have allowed an average of 106.8 points per game on the season, but this number has increased to 115.4 over the last 5 games, giving the Grizzlies an excellent chance to keep the game close. The Suns are favoured to win tonight at 1.27 odds, but with 71% of bettors backing them, the value is obviously with the Grizz. I’ll take that +7.5 point handicap any day.

• Selection: Grizzlies +7.5
• Best Odds: 1.95 (Marathonbet)
• Stake: 7/10

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San Antonio Spurs vs Portland Trail Blazers Best Bet

Sat, Apr 2. 01:30 (UK)

The San Antonio Spurs are still 10th in the western conference with 31 wins and 45 losses and hoping to keep their playoff hopes alive. They have won 6 of their last 10 games, but are coming off a close 112-111 home loss to the Memphis Grizzlies. It was a valiant effort by Gerg Popivoch’s side, overcoming a 13-point deficit at halftime, but a missed layup in the final seconds prevented them from completing the comeback.

The Spurs have ranked 17th in offensive and 19th in defensive rating over the last 5 games. The Spurs have been one of the fastest teams in the NBA, attempting 93.3 field goals per game, but their mediocre shooting percentages have prevented them from reaching their true attaching potential. They have averaged 113.3 points per game with 27.9 assists, but they only make 11.2 three-pointers per game. The Spurs are in dire need of a win, but I don’t see the 15-point handicap as realistic, and even in the high-scoring NBA, it’s still too high.

The Portland Trail Blazers are… struggling to say the least. They are 13th in the western conference with 27 wins and 49 losses and are on a 5-game losing streak. Tough times for Terry Stots and the Blazers organisation, and with a total of 9 players in their injury report for tonight’s game, 6 of whom are out for the season, it’s looking like good night Irene. They are coming off a 107-117 loss to the New Orleans Pelicans, where they covered the 15.5 point spread.

Let’s face it, there aren’t a lot of reasons to be backing the Blazers at this point, other than math. They don’t have anything to play for, they are the worst defensive team in the league, and their offence is terrible. But the uglier the dog, the higher the value. You can bet that nobody will be touching the Blazers until the end of the season, and I’m not letting a +15-point handicap slip away without some action.

• Selection: Blazers +15.0
• Best Odds: 1.95 (Unibet)
• Stake: 5/10

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