Euroleague Best Bets: Round 33
With only a few games left in the Euroleague regular season, the playoff race is getting heated, and I’m hoping for close games where anything can happen. These 2 selections provide the most betting value for round 33 of the Euroleague. I’m avoiding the favourites in this round and backing 2 underdogs in Monaco and Alba Berlin.
Euroleague Best Bets: Round 33
- Olimpia Milano vs Monaco: Monaco to Win at 2.90
- Anadolu Efes vs Alba Berlin: Alba +9.5 at 1.92
Odds as at 2 pm March 31st 2022. Odds may now differ.
Olimpia Milano vs AS Monaco Best Bet
Thu, Mar 31. 19:45 (UK)
Olimpia Milano have won 3 of their last 5 Euroleague games and are sitting in 3rd place in the standings with 18 wins and 8 losses. They are coming off an 84-77 victory over Bayern Munich on Tuesday where they overcame a 10-point deficit and were eventually able to get out in front. Victory in this game would all but guarantee them 3rd place in the Euroleague standings with just 1 game left on their schedule after. Their final game of the season will be against Lyon, whom they beat 73-72 earlier in the season.
Milano have been a solid team all year long, but their offensive performance could use a boost, with an average of 74.1 points per game. their top scorer this season has been Shavon Shields with just 12.8 points per game, followed by Devon hall with 10.1. They beat Monaco earlier this season by 71-65, but we’ve got a completely different situation this time around, with Monaco in excellent form. Milano are favoured to win at 1.43 odds and with 89% of bettors backing them, the value simply isn’t there.
But Monaco are one of the best teams in the Euroleague at the moment despite their 13-13 record, having won 7 of their last 10 games, as well as 4 of their last 5. They are now 7th in the Euroleague standings with 2 games left to play, and very close to making the top 5. Monaco are coming off a 78-68 victory against Baskonia in Round 32, and are in excellent form coming into this game. It was a balanced scoring effort last time around with Will Thomas leading the way with 16 points, Bacon adding 14, and Hall and Diallo pitching in with 10 apiece.
Although their offence has been excellent all year, they’ve been firing on all cylinders recently, averaging 89.4 points per game in their last 5. Their defence has taken a hit in the past month, but they seem to have bounced back in their last 2 games against Olympiacos and Baskonia, allowing 72 and 68 points respectively. But the biggest reason for backing them tonight is the 2.90 odds to win. This implies a win probability of 34.5%, but I believe they have a much higher chance given their recent play on both sides of the floor. The value is with Monaco tonight, and they are also available at +5.5 points at 1.91 odds at Unibet.
- Selection: Monaco to Win
- Best Odds: 2.90 (Unibet)
- Stakes: 6/10
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Anadolu Efes vs Alba Berlin Best Bet
Fri, Apr 1. 18:30 (UK)
The defending Euroleague champions Anadolu Efes are 5th in the standings with 14 wins and 11 losses this year, and 4 wins adrift of 4th-placed Olympiacos. But their recent form has left a lot to be desired, winning just 2 of their last 5 games, and coming off an 83-77 loss to Milano in Round 32. Despite holding a 15-point halftime lead and the 27-points of reigning MVP Vasilije Micic, Efes only scored 26 points in the entire second half and were left empty-handed at the final whistle.
Efes have averaged 82.9 points per game in the Euroleague this season, with a 3-point percentage of 37.2% and 17.4 assists per game. But despite their elite offensive game, and having 2 lethal scorers in Larkin and Micic, Efes haven’t been able to revive their form after a terrible start to the season. They went on a 4-game winning streak in November but consistency has been the problem due to their lacklustre defence. Efes have allowed an average of 80.9 points per game and have even failed to keep the bottom teams at bay. Betting against them ATS has been very profitable, and with a -9.5 point handicap, I have no problem doing it again.
Alba Berlin are by no means an elite Euroleague team this year, sitting 9th in the standings with 11 wins and 14 losses, but with 3 games left on their schedule, they still have a reason to fight. They have won 3 of their last 5 games and are coming off a 66-57 victory against Fenerbahce. Their 3-point shooting was terrific in that game, draining 44.8% of their shots, and they should be able to continue to hit them in this game considering the defensive capabilities of their opponents.
Although Alba have been a fairly average team this year, averaging 75.5 points scored and 78.9 allowed, their form has seen a significant improvement recently, and they have become a solid value team. They are coming into this game as heavy underdogs to win at 4.40 odds, and the spread is set at 9.5 points. They did lose the first game of the season against Efes by a demoralizing 90.63 result, but they are in much better shape this time around and I’m expecting a much closer result. They are desperate for victory in this game, partially because of their playoff hopes, but also revenge for last time. I’m expecting a massive effort from Alba in this game and I’m backing them to cover the spread.
- Selection: Alba +9.5
- Best Odds: 1.92 (Marathonbet)
- Stakes: 7/10
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