Football 
Tennis 
Horse Racing The Miami Marlins are a Value Bet to Miss the Playoffs: Top 3 Reasons
The Marlins have exceeded expectations in the first half of the 2023 campaign, sitting second in the National League East at 53-39. Bet365 has Miami at 1.50 to make the Playoffs and 2.65 to miss out.
This season represents a huge opportunity for the Marlins with the Mets underachieving and the Phillies starting slowly. They have not made the postseason in a full campaign since they won the Fall Classic in 2003 – they are given a 75.7% chance of making the Playoffs at Baseball Reference and a 74.2% chance at Fangraphs.
Miami has the second-most wins in the National League and the fourth-most in the Majors. Yet, there could be value backing them to miss the Playoffs.
In this article:
Low-powered offence
The Marlins are only a league-average offence at a 100 wRC+. Their roster was built around contact, so it’s not surprising they are 26th in isolated power and second in BABIP. They are 19th in xwOBA, however, and down in 27th in walk rate.
There are some signs that even being a middle-of-the-pack offence represents overachievement for this group. Luis Arraez and Jorge Soler are deserving All-Stars, but Jazz Chisholm has played just 25 games, and hit the injured list again before the break. Jean Segura has dropped off the proverbial cliff, while they have also posted negative production (per Wins Above Average) from first base, left field and centre field.
Pitching concerns
If someone told you the Marlins would be 14 games over .500 at All-Star, the assumption would be that Sandy Alcantara was pitching at a Cy Young level again. Miami’s achievements become all the more impressive given that they have had to overcome Alcantara’s struggles (4.72 ERA, 4.35 xERA).
This can either be viewed as an area where Miami should improve in the second half or a longer-term concern. Miami’s roster is designed to lean on its pitching and score enough runs – Alcantara pitching to a 91 ERA+ is not part of that plan.
The arrival of rookie phenom Eury Perez has helped to cover for Alcantara’s underperformance – Perez has an ERA 83% better than league average over 53.1 innings. The 20-year-old, however, was optioned before the break and it is unclear how many more innings Miami will want him to throw. He has already thrown more frames in 2023 than he did in either of his two seasons in the minors.
Miami has compensated for Alcantara’s woes thus far, but they need him back to being an above-average starter. Trading for a starter would make little sense with their pitcher-heavy farm, and there’s considerable uncertainty over how much they will get from Perez.
Value on Miami missing out
Miami is a 45-47 team according to their runs scored and conceded. While the Pythagorean record isn’t everything, and winning close games matters, conceding more runs than they score suggests this team will regress in the second half without reinforcements. As remarkable as going 21-6 in one-run games is, it’s very unlikely that is sustainable with only a league-average bullpen.
Getting Chisholm healthy for a prolonged period would be impactful, though it’s hard to bank on that right now. Alcantara regaining his Cy Young form seems like a longshot, which raises questions about the rotation if they protect Perez’s workload.
This Marlins team is good, and they have a slight cushion in the Wild Card race. Yet, it also wouldn’t be a surprise to see them drop off if there are no major moves at the trade deadline. Bats should be the priority and very few impactful position players are set to be available.
The Marlins could still quickly lose their advantage – they are only two clear of the Giants and Phillies in the loss column and three ahead of the Brewers.
At a price of 2.65, there’s value backing Miami to miss out. If you’d like slightly longer odds, you could wait a couple of weeks and see what’s available after they face the Cardinals, Rockies and Tigers.
