MLB Run Total Best Bet: Tuesday July 12th

We are hoping you enjoyed following our MLB totals expert this past week as Ej put up another 4 – 1 record that followed up his 8 – 1 – 1 run just two weeks ago. That means life is good, but there is no room to be overconfident, and we now need to turn the page for a new week of action on the diamond.

MLB Run Total Best Bet July 12th

• Minnesota Twins vs Milwaukee Brewers: Over 9 Runs

Minnesota Twins vs Milwaukee Brewers Best Bet

Wed, July 13th, 00:40 UK time

I feel like we are taking advantage of Twins totals plenty lately and luckily, I am glad it’s worked out thus far. The Twins and Brewers had Monday off to regroup and travel to the Twin Cities for this brief, 2-game interleague series. Milwaukee is making the short jump up from Pittsburgh to get here, and the Twins are returning home after a 6-game roadie against Chicago and Texas. Oh, all 6 Overs came in during their trip! 

So, who are we to think we need to shy away from another total going over the number, as we have a 9 being posted with marginal juice at -110 or so on the early line here in the States? It won’t be us, because I certainly can explain why we should see, at least, the 4 – 4 game to push our action on the straight 9 total. Hey, the day I am upset about pushing my action, please ask me to stop writing and betting because I am always okay with that.

We have to be okay with that if you are a long-term bettor because if you would rather lose than push your wager, you might want to take up backgammon or knitting. I’ll send you a few bucks to make me a scarf! 

I assume you are following baseball a bit, but if you just got here, the Brewers and Twins can each put up 4 runs in their sleep and they seem to pull it off every night of late. The Twins scored no less than 5 runs in any of their 6 games during this recent road trip that I mentioned, and they are on the verge of averaging 5 runs a game if they keep this pace.

On top of that, Jason Alexander is the expected starter for the Brew Crew tonight and we have to discuss his 4.75 ERA. That does not mean he is giving up almost 5 runs a night, however, as he got off to a fantastic start to his career before coming down to earth lately. Alexander didn’t allow a single homer in his first 4 starts this campaign and it took until his 5th outing to give up more than 2 earned runs in any appearance. 

That is why you need to know what that 4.75 ERA is all about because teams are now getting more info on him by the start, and he has only gotten hit hard in 2 of his outings. His last start against the Cubs was one of those rough affairs as he gave up 7 runs, 6 of which were earned after only 5⅓ IP. For the third time in four outings, Alexander got caught giving up the long ball, so I expect he might get caught making a mistake or two tonight on the road.

Also, keep in mind that Alexander was sent to the bullpen and is now back in the rotation as injuries are mounting to the Brewers’ pitching staff. His opponent has faced similar circumstances so let’s talk about Mr. Winder for a spell.

 The Twinkies are sending Josh WInder to the bump, while he has gone back and forth from starter to bullpen and back to starter this season. Winder has only 5 starts under his belt in 9 appearances and he has allowed 50 base runners through 40⅓ IP (38 H; 12 W) with 4 home runs against him.

These two young pitchers will have their hands full facing bats that are hot enough to give them problems early and often. I don’t see either of them getting through 5 innings, and I see the 1st-5 inning total is showing a straight 5 at priced at 2.02. I don’t see how they can prevent 5 runs from crossing the plate, and I will yell at no one who leaves a response saying they went with the 1st-5 total to go over. So, feel free to do that, but I am offering the 9 to go over as my best bet so let’s start the week off on the right boot!

• Selection: Minnesota Twins vs Milwaukee Brewers Over 9 Runs
• Best odds: 1.91 (Pinnacle)
• Stakes 4/10

Odds as of 9:00 am July 12th, 2022. Odds may now differ.

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