MLB Run Total Best Bet: Monday July 4th

The Orioles and Rangers will both have to travel to Baltimore after wrapping up their weekend series, and it’s the 4th of July here in the U.S, so Happy Holiday! Our resident MLB expert Ej Garr will be sparking up the BBQ and dishing out a play on the 1st inning total for this affair on Monday afternoon.

MLB Best Bet July 4th

• Baltimore vs. Texas: 1st Inning Under 0.5 Runs

Odds as of 10:00 am July 4th, 2022. Odds may now differ.

Baltimore vs Texas Best Bet

July 4, 18:05 UK time

The Baltimore Orioles and Texas Rangers had to pick up their gear on Sunday and travel to Baltimore to start this 3-game series and yet they have to play an early day game on a Holiday. The Orioles are just finishing up a long road trip and the offence fell asleep during the journey.

Baltimore was limited to 3 runs or less over the last 5 games and 4 of those outings resulted in losses before winning their final game of the series in Minnesota on Sunday. Baltimore was 5 – 5 over the 10-game roadie and no one should be that surprised by the lack of scoring for this Orioles team.

Baltimore ranks 27th in all of baseball with an ugly .677 OPS and they back that up with an even uglier batting average of .228 as a unit, which ranks them back in the 26th spot. Now, we could start looking for trends about today’s starting pitchers and see what that shows.

Dane Dunning’s totals are 5-0-1 to the under in his last 6 starts during game 1 of a series and he usually comes out focused not allowing early runs. I know we’re not playing the total per se, but I still like the fact that Dunning has been in control of his stuff lately and pitching quite well over the last month+.

Dean Kremer is expected to be starting for Baltimore and we know he has not given up an earned run in any of his last 3 starts, much less anything early. Kremer has pitched 18⅔ innings over those 3 starts and he’s given up nada, nothing! Zero, zilch! I don’t know how else to say this other than this guy took the body of work from a season ago and figured out how to put the bad history behind him. Last season was not only a complete disaster, but many thought he might struggle to even make the team this season. Look where he was and where he is now! Kremer was 0 – 7 last year and in 13 starts he got taken deep 17 times and he couldn’t even manage a 2 to 1 K – BB ratio. That ain’t good, in my best NY Slang accent!

So, instead of stressing about trying to hit a full-time under in Baltimore, let me tell you that the nicer the weather gets here on the east coast this park is a place where unders go to die! I am just hoping that both of these starters continue to pitch well early and that both teams travelling overnight to get here for an early game equal a 0 – 0 1st inning. 

In addition, I like getting paid in about 15 minutes when I can find a reasonable line to try to make that happen and we’re getting plus money at 2.05. Drop the gavel because that is Sold!

• Selection: Under 0.5 1st Inning Runs
• Best odds: 2.05 (Pinnacle)
• Stakes 4/10

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