MLB Run Total Best Bet: Friday July 15th

Is it really Friday already? Well, that means that it’s time to wrap up another week and get ready for the weekend, but keep in mind that the All-Star Game will be played on Tuesday next week. Our resident baseball expert Ej Garr will be blasting out a play for the game in Minnesota tonight, and be on the lookout for his ASG betting article that will be filled with options for those who fancy a wager or two on some good prop bets. 

MLB Run Total Best Bet July 15th

• Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: Over 5 1st Inning Runs

Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox Best Bet

July 16, 01:10 UK time

Every team in MLB is done travelling until the All-Star break as this is the final weekend before the highlighted festivities are to come on Monday and Tuesday at Dodger Stadium next week. Now, I will be putting up an article that will include a few betting props for the big game and I will also be giving out my best bet to win the Home Run Derby on my Twitter feed @VigSqueeze.

Before we get there, I would like to point you to the total in Minnesota for Friday night after handing out another winner last night from New York. Let me remind you that I just tore off an 8 – 1 – 1 in June and this baseball savant is now 6 – 2 – 1 over the last two weeks for your betting pleasure!

So, do you want me to wait for you to ask me why this total is coming in when Minnesota and Chicago take the Target Field diamond on Friday night? Wait, I guess I should just hit you with the mileage we will be able to calculate from all of the balls that will land in and over the outfield stands. Let’s see, so if both starting pitchers give up three home runs a piece and we are looking at a 9 for a total, break out your phone calculator for me. 

That’s six balls leaving the yard, only 2 of which are solo shots because there were runners on the base paths early and often. Hi, my name is Ej and I have to fade Michael Kopech and Devin Smeltzer because I like making money betting on baseball totals. You know, the kind of bets that when you know people are laughing with a cashed ticket and you are the reason why? Yeah, I love that!

Listen to me… Now, I hope you noticed what these two teams did last night while we were cashing our Yankees vs. Reds total. Tonight’s game is the second of a 4-game set that will close out the 1st half of the campaign before the All-Star break. 

The White Sox needed that win last night to start the series and they did it with great pitching from Johnny Cueto and timely hitting. At 44 – 45, the South-Siders can inch their way to a .500 record with a win tonight and that can only build confidence towards the second half of the year. Should Chicago stay hot and close out this series strong, they can gain ground on everyone including this Twins outfit that is now 49 – 42 after the L on Thursday.

I first noticed the Over 8.5 was 1.82 and I was considering that because I know no one minds some marginal juice here and there. I am not the biggest fan of the stuff because we don’t work for Tropicana and I’d rather squeeze my own juice instead of paying for it if you get my drift. 

So, when I thought about what the 1st-5 inning total would come in at, I knew we would see 4.5 and 5 with the latter holding the value at 2.08. I mean, did you say a 3 – 2 game going to the 6th inning is going to end my week with a push, and yet the odds of them stopping there are slim to none IMHO.

Kopech has given up eight home runs over his last 5 starts and the 4 he allowed against … oops, wait for it…

The 4 blasts he gave up against this Minnesota lineup on July 5 had him knocked out of the game before the 5th inning allowing 6 earned runs in an eventual 8 – 2 defeat to the Twins. So, let’s assume that everyone in the Twins dugout is feeling the effects of last night’s ugly loss and they are wanting to not lose game 2 of the series at home. 

If you don’t think that everyone is being reminded that Kopech is back on the bump you are foolish with little brain power. Oh, stop it, I am just ribbing you because you damn well know that everyone will want to get that loss behind them and he is a perfect candidate to help get your offence back on track after a rough night on Thursday 

Smeltzer is another situation where we can expect him to make so many mistakes that you would think the label says Made in Taiwan! Big Devin gave up just a few home runs in his last start and oh, wait, he gave up a few more in the start previous to that. Calculators again, please. 

I will give him that he did only allow 3 solo shots to Baltimore, but he only recorded 10 outs last time out against those Texas bats that we all know are heating up. We know this because we haven’t a Rangers total we haven’t liked around here, baby!

So, we fade Smeltzer and you go bang the ‘Will he give up a dinger’ prop.

We fade Kopech and you bang the ‘Will he give up a dinger’ prop.

Why yes, yes they will, and we will see 5 runs early and you can have a doubly good weekend if you want to hit the 1st 5 total along with the game total of 9. Because you can! Have a nice weekend and I will see you for some All-Star props and a big article for the game itself posted right here at Betting Expert!  

• Selection: 1st 5 innings Total Over 5
• Best odds: 2.00 (Bwin)
• Stakes 4/10
• Bonus Tip: Over 9 Runs OT included

Odds as of 10:00 am July 15th, 2022. Odds may now differ.

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