MLB Best Bet: Thursday, April 28th

The Atlanta Braves and Chicago Cubs will be wrapping up their 3-game series on Thursday night and our resident baseball expert Ej Garr has a play for our readers to make on the affair. For the first time this season, his first 5-inning play hits the board because Kyle Wright is pitching like an ace for the Braves and the line is fit to bet!

MLB Best Bet: Thursday, April 28th

• Atlanta vs Chicago: Braves -0.5 Runs 1st 5-Inning Handicap

Odds as of 10 am April 28th, 2022. Odds may now differ.

Atlanta vs Chicago Best Bet

April 29, 00:20 UK time

So, for the first time this season, I have an offer to suggest on the 1st 5-inning line and it is on the home favourites to be ahead early because of Kyle Wright. The Braves starter will take the mound with 3 starts under his belt thus far to begin the 2022 campaign and he’s done nothing but pitch well out of the gate. 

Wright is sporting a 1.06 ERA and any baseball fan or purist understands that number is stellar no matter what time of year it is. Granted, it’s only 3 starts of data to go by but numbers are numbers and baseball is certainly all about those. Wright has pitched a total of 17 innings and here is your next reason we are taking the Braves to be ahead after 5 innings tonight.

Wright’s 26 / 2 K to BB ratio is outrageous and his last time out against Miami he struck out 11 Marlins in 6 innings while only allowing 4 hits. Some may argue that he has taken advantage of 3 weak offences having faced the Reds, Padres, and Marlins but that won’t be the case tonight. 

As you can all see, the Cubs’ offence ranks among the best in baseball in runs, average, and OPS, among other things so this will be a great test of Wright’s ability to shut down a formidable lineup… Oh, stop it, because that 21 – 0 win threw all of those numbers out of whack as this Cubs lineup has been absolute rubbish the past week+. Outside of that insane 21 – 0 game, the Cubs offence was putting up 2 runs, 3 runs, 2 runs, and 3 runs a night so let’s not lose track of how this team is playing on a game-by-game basis.

The Cubs got stuffed for only 1 run in the opening game of this series on Tuesday night and the offensive stats you see on paper for Chicago are just a hoax. That is why you don’t bank on too many rankings and stats in the early part of long seasons to justify your betting approach. The numbers only tell so much of the story so don’t get lost in them. 

What is happening on the field in a sport like baseball where they play every night has dozens of other concerns to address. I don’t want to start a tutorial here but my goodness… Weather, starting pitchers, the shape of the current lineups, the defences, the bullpens, the bench players, the managers’ brains, and so on! LoL

The Cubs were only able to score 3 runs through 9 innings again on Wednesday night but since they blew their 3 – 0 lead the game eventually went to extra innings tied at 3. Chicago scored 3 runs in the top half of the 10th inning and their eventual 6 – 3 win makes this the rubber game of this 3-game set after the Braves took game 1 on Tuesday, 3 – 1.

I believe the Braves can be up by a run after 5 innings at home against the Cubbies on Thursday because Wright has pitched so well to earn my respect early in the year. Until he shows me otherwise, I can find him worth an investment of some type so good luck out there!

• Selection: Braves -0.5 AH Runs After 5 Innings
• Best odds: 1.80 (Bet365)
• Stakes 4/10

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