Olympics 2024: Why You Should Back France And Italy To Beat Their Own Record

As the Paris 2024 Olympics approach, France’s and Italy’s prospects for gold medals are a hot topic of discussion amongst bettors. 

Historically, host nations experience a boost in medal counts, estimated at around 2%. For France, this could translate to winning an additional 20 medals compared to Tokyo. Despite Italy’s increased medal prospects, this advantage might edge them out in the total medal count.

On the other hand, Italy have consistently ranked in the top 10 of the medal table, with only a few exceptions. This consistent performance raises expectations for the upcoming games. With 403 athletes set to compete, Italy aim to surpass its previous best of 40 medals won in Tokyo 2021.

• Italy won 40 medals at Tokyo 2021, setting a new country’s record.
• Gracenote Nielsen projected both Italy and France to achieve a record number of gold medals.
• Historically, host nations experience a 2% boost in medal counts: in 2021, Japan won 58 medals (27 golds), seventeen more medals (and 15 more golds) than in Rio 2016.

Eyes on the record for the Azzurri

The Tokyo 2021 Olympics were a milestone, with Italy securing 40 medals (10 gold, 10 silver, 20 bronze). 

As Paris 2024 nears, the expectations are even higher. According to Gracenote Nielsen’s June 2024 predictions, Italy could secure 46 medals, positioning them sixth in the total medal count and seventh in the gold medal count.

A significant factor influencing Italy’s medal prospects is the exclusion of many Russian and Belarusian athletes due to geopolitical reasons. This exclusion potentially opens up more medal opportunities for high-performing countries, including Italy. At the Tokyo Games, Russian athletes won 71 medals, and their absence in Paris could significantly benefit Italy.

With stalwarts like Thomas Ceccon, Nicolò Martinenghi, and Arianna Errigo leading the charge, swimming and fencing sports remain Italy’s stronghold. Swimming, in particular, is poised for a record performance, while fencing seeks redemption after missing gold in Tokyo.

The athletics team, fresh off a successful European Championships, features stars like Gianmarco Tamberi and Marcell Jacobs, who aim to defend their Tokyo golds. Emerging talents like Mattia Furlani and Larissa Iapichino also bring high hopes.

Italy’s diverse athletic strength spans 20 sports. While achieving the goal of becoming the top European nation in the medal tally seems less probable, Italy’s ambition to stay in the top 10 and exceed 40 medals is well within reach. The record number of 403 athletes, including many from military sports groups that support elite athletes, provides a robust foundation for success.

A triple gold jump for the hosts

The Paris 2024 Olympics represent a unique opportunity for France to showcase its athletic prowess on home soil. The combination of home advantage, strategic preparations, and broad-based athletic development sets the stage for what could be France’s most successful Olympics since 1900. 

Historically, France have had mixed results at the Olympics, but Paris 2024 appears poised to be a standout year. 

At the Tokyo 2021 Olympics, France won a total of 33 medals, including 10 golds, which placed them eighth overall. However, Gracenote Nielsen now projects that France could win 29 gold medals, along with 56 total medals. 

The benefits of being the host nation cannot be overstated. Historical data indicates that host countries often experience a substantial boost in their medal counts. 

Japan’s success three years ago, despite the absence of spectators, highlights the potential impact of home advantage.

Despite some setbacks, such as a disappointing showing at the World Athletics Championships in Budapest, French athletes have excelled in other areas. The Cycling World Championships in Glasgow saw France secure a commendable second place overall, with a tally of 26 golds, 28 silvers, and 25 bronzes. 

These performances bolster confidence in France’s ability to meet or even exceed medal expectations at the Paris Games.

Odds courtesy of Betway. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

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