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Horse Racing History Says....Bet Against Defending Champions
Has betting on defending champions at major international football tournaments been profitable? To be frank, no. In fact, supporting defending World Cup and European champions since 1998 has been utterly disastrous.
In this article:
In this analysis, we will examine how defending World Cup and European champions fare when they defend their titles in the subsequent tournament. Specifically, we’ll analyze their performance in both the 1X2 and Asian handicap markets at even stakes.
But First, bettingexpert’s Free Euro 2024 Betting Guide is out NOW!
WHAT WILL YOU FIND IN THE GUIDE?
Our guide takes a different approach to any other tournament preview. The analysis and insight you’ll find in the document is based on our in-house betting data which goes back decades. This betting data is on the following markets:
- Match Result (1X2)
- Handicap Betting
- Total Goals (Over/Under 2.5)
Using this as a foundation, we’ve split the guide into several different sections:
- 8 historical tournament analysis articles
- 24 team-by-team articles
- BETSiE projections for every team and group
- Unique analysis from our experts including exclusive quotes from Mikael Silvestre and John Barnes
For a free copy of the Euro 2024, click the button below:
Betting Against Defending Euro Champions
How have punters fared when betting against defending Euro champions since the 2000 European Championships? Here we will focus on the following defending Euro titleholders:
- Germany at Euro 2000, defending champions from Euro 1996
- France at Euro 2004, defending champions from Euro 2000
- Greece at Euro 2008, defending champions from Euro 2004
- Spain at Euro 2012, defending champions from Euro 2008
- Spain at Euro 2016, defending champions from Euro 2012
- Portugal at Euro 2021, defending champions from Euro 2016.
Betting Against Defending Euro Champions: 1X2 Market
The table below illustrates the results for 1X2 betting concerning each defending Euro champion since the 2000 tournament.
Profitability for each outcome – Win, Draw, or Loss – is computed at ‘even stakes,’ utilizing averaged odds with a standard 4.5% bookmaker margin. ‘Even stakes’ refers to betting a single unit on each outcome. For instance, wagering one unit on Portugal to win each of their matches at the 2021 Euro would have resulted in a loss of -2.55 units, while betting a single unit on each of their opponents to win would have yielded a profit of +0.68 units.
Table 1: Performance of defending European champions in the 1X2 market at the following tournament
| TEAM | GAMES | W-D-L | WIN P/L | DRAW P/L | LOSS P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germany 2000 | 3 | 0-1-2 | -3 | 0.22 | 2.52 |
| France 2004 | 4 | 2-1-1 | -0.5 | -0.21 | 3.6 |
| Greece 2008 | 3 | 0-0-3 | -3 | -3 | 3.57 |
| Spain 2012 | 6 | 4-2-0 | 0.76 | 0.75 | -6 |
| Spain 2016 | 4 | 2-0-2 | -1.1 | -4 | 5.75 |
| Portugal 2021 | 4 | 1-1-2 | -2.55 | -0.56 | 0.68 |
| Totals | 24 | 9-5-10 | -9.39 | -6.8 | 10.12 |
| ROI % | -39.10% | -28.30% | 42.20% |
Considering defending Euro champions since 2000, we see a total of 24 matches played by such teams at the returning tournament. Backing each of these teams at even stakes would have returned a loss of over 39% while betting on them to lose each match would have returned a mighty profit of just over 42%.
In fact only one defending European champion has returned a profit at the returning tournament, that being Spain in 2012.
Betting against defending Euro Champions: Asian handicap market
In terms of the Asian handicap market, betting against defending champions combined for a win rate of almost 65% through the 24 matches, returning a profit of over 22%, while betting on defending champions in the Asian handicap market would have returned a loss of over 30%.
Table 2: Performance of defending European champions in the Asian handicap market at the following tournament
| TEAM | GAMES | W/L | WIN P/L | LOSS P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germany 2000 | 3 | 0-3 | -3 | 2.76 |
| France 2004 | 4 | 2-2 | -0.08 | -0.16 |
| Greece 2008 | 3 | 0-3 | -3 | 2.75 |
| Spain 2012 | 6 | 3.25-2.75 | 0.46 | -0.835 |
| Spain 2016 | 4 | 1.25-2.75 | -1.7 | 1.12 |
| Portugal 2021 | 4 | 2-2 | 0.06 | -0.24 |
| Totals | 24 | -7.26 | 5.395 | |
| ROI % | -30.25% | 22.48% |
Betting Against Defending World Cup Champions
We can also observe a similar trend when we look at defending World Cup winners. Here we are looking at the following defending champions:
- Brazil at World Cup 1998 as defending 1994 champions
- France at World Cup 2002 as defending 1998 champions
- Brazil at World Cup 2006 as defending 2002 champions
- Italy at World Cup 2010 as defending 2006 champions
- Spain at World Cup 2014 as defending 2010 champions
- Germany at World Cup 2018 as defending 2014 champions
- France at the World Cup 2022 as defending 2018 champions
Betting on each team to win each match at even stakes would have returned a loss of over 28% while betting on them to lose each match would have returned you an astounding profit of 160%, a total of 49.61 units from just 31 units staked.
Table 3: Performance of defending World Cup champions in the 1X2 market at the following tournament
| TEAM | GAMES | W-D-L | WIN P/L | DRAW P/L | LOSS P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil 1998 | 7 | 4-1-2 | -1.62 | -3.95 | 2.77 |
| France 2002 | 3 | 0-1-2 | -3 | 1 | 12.93 |
| Brazil 2006 | 5 | 4-0-1 | 0.4 | -5 | 0.2 |
| Italy 2010 | 3 | 0-2-1 | -3 | 6.08 | 3.95 |
| Spain 2014 | 3 | 1-0-2 | -1.61 | -3 | 7.53 |
| Germany 2018 | 3 | 1-0-2 | -1.54 | -3 | 22.85 |
| France 2022 | 7 | 5-1-1 | 1.61 | -3.9 | -0.62 |
| Totals | 31 | -8.76 | -11.77 | 49.61 | |
| ROI % | -28.3% | -38.0% | 160.0% |
Betting against defending champions in the Asian handicap market at even stakes has returned a profit in each of the last 7 World Cups barring France in 2022.
While the returns are not as dramatic, we see likewise when betting against defending World Cup winners in the Asian handicap market.
Had you bet against each defending champion in the Asian handicap market since 1998, you would have seen a return of 5.26 units from 31 matches, a return on investment of 16.97%.
Table 4: Performance of defending World Cup champions in the Asian handicap market at the following tournament
| TEAM | GAMES | W/L | WIN P/L | LOSS P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil 1998 | 7 | 2-5 | -3.18 | 2.42 |
| France 2002 | 3 | 0-3 | -3 | 2.88 |
| Brazil 2006 | 5 | 3-2 | 0.685 | -1.12 |
| Italy 2010 | 3 | 0.25-2.75 | -2.5 | 2.08 |
| Spain 2014 | 3 | 1-2 | -1.09 | 0.89 |
| Germany 2018 | 3 | 0.5-2.5 | -2 | 2.01 |
| France 2022 | 7 | 5.5-1.5 | 3.48 | -3.9 |
| Totals | 31 | -7.605 | 5.26 | |
| ROI % | -24.53% | 16.97% |
The only defending World Cup winners that returned a profit in the Asian handicap market were Brazil in 2006 and France in 2022.
Conclusion: Bet Against The Champs
Though we are talking of a small sample size, the trend has been quite stark. It has indeed been profitable to bet against defending champions at the following major tournament
For Euro 2024, seriously consider betting against defending European champions Italy in both the 1X2 and Asian handicap markets.
- 15th June: Italy vs Albania
- 20th June: Italy vs Spain
- 24th June: Italy vs Croatia
Summary of Conclusions:
- Betting against defending Euro champions in the 1X2 market has earned a profit of 42.2%
- Betting against defending Euro champions in the Asian handicap market has earned a profit of 22.5%
- Betting against defending World Cup winners in the 1X2 market has earned a profit of 160%
- Betting against defending World Cup winners in the Asian handicap market has earned a profit of 17%
SAFER GAMBLING
At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.
