Football 
Tennis 
Horse Racing 
Boxing History Says.....Back the Draw In The Knockout Stage
Betting on a draw is often overlooked in 1X2 betting. This is largely because fans prefer to bet on their team to win out of loyalty, hope, or faith. Alternatively, neutral fans may not enjoy spending their free time rooting for a tie. As a result, few bettors opt for the draw.
Since most of the money is usually wagered on either team to win in 1X2 betting, the odds for a draw can sometimes be higher than they should be, simply due to market dynamics.
In this article:
In this analysis, I’ll examine the profitability of betting on a draw during the knockout stages of both the Euro and World Cup tournaments.
But First, bettingexpert’s Free Euro 2024 Betting Guide is out NOW!
WHAT WILL YOU FIND IN THE GUIDE?
Our guide takes a different approach to any other tournament preview. The analysis and insight you’ll find in the document is based on our in-house betting data which goes back decades. This betting data is on the following markets:
- Match Result (1X2)
- Handicap Betting
- Total Goals (Over/Under 2.5)
Using this as a foundation, we’ve split the guide into several different sections:
- 8 historical tournament analysis articles
- 24 team-by-team articles
- BETSiE projections for every team and group
- Unique analysis from our experts including exclusive quotes from Mikael Silvestre and John Barnes
For a free copy of the Euro 2024, click the button below:
Betting on the Draw In International Football
International football is often seen as defensive, especially during the knockout stage of tournaments. This defensive style usually leads to fewer goals, increasing the likelihood of a draw.
But just how defensive is international football during the knockout stage? And more importantly, does it exceed the expectations set by bookmakers? Has betting on the draw during the knockout stage of major international football tournaments proven to be profitable?
In this article, we will examine the 1X2 betting outcomes for each Euro tournament from 2000 to 2021 and World Cups from 1998 to 2022. We’ll assess the profitability of betting on the draw and Under 2.5 goals at even stakes, meaning betting the same amount on each bet.
Betting the Draw in Euro and World Cup Knockout Stages
Table 1: Performance of betting the draw in the knockout stage of Euros and World Cup’s since 1998
| Tournament | Games | Draws | Draw P/L | DRAW ROI% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euro | 58 | 24 | 22.1 | 38.1% |
| World Cup | 105 | 37 | 23.52 | 22.4% |
| TOTAL | 163 | 61 | 45.62 | 28.0% |
Looking at the data, it’s clear that historically, bookmakers haven’t factored in the defensive nature of knockout stage international football. Betting on the draw during these matches has proven to be profitable.
Backing the draw in all knockout stage matches at both the Euros and World Cup since 1998 has yielded significant profits. For instance, betting a single unit on the draw in each of the 58 Euro and 90 World Cup knockout stage matches since 1998 would have resulted in a profit of just under 46 units, representing a return of 28%.
Specifically, betting on the draw in the Euros would have generated a profit of over 38% across the 58 knockout stage matches played from 2000 to 2021. Similarly, betting on the draw in the World Cup would have produced a profit of just over 22% across the 90 knockout stage matches played from 1998 to 2022. These profits were achieved in standard 4.5% margin 1X2 betting markets, and opting for the best available odds would have increased the return even further.
Moreover, analyzing the data across each stage of the tournament reveals that a profit has been consistently returned at every stage.
Table 2: Performance of betting the draw in the knockout stage of Euros and World Cup’s since 1998 by stage
| Stage | Games | Draws | Draw P/L | DRAW ROI% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Final | 13 | 7 | 8.73 | 67.2% |
| Semi Final | 26 | 10 | 6.58 | 25.3% |
| Qtr Final | 52 | 19 | 11.35 | 21.8% |
| Round of 16 | 72 | 25 | 18.96 | 26.3% |
| TOTAL | 163 | 61 | 45.62 | 28.0% |
Betting on the Draw Tournament to Tournament
Of the 13 tournaments in this analysis, backing the draw in the knockout stage has returned a profit in 9 with the worst results coming in the World Cups of 1998 and 2010 and the Euros of 2012 and 2016.
Best results? The World Cup of 2014 delivered over 16 units of profit from 15 units wagered while the Euros of 2021 returned near 14 units from 15 units wagered.
Table 3: Performance of betting the draw in the knockout stage of Euros and World Cup’s since 1998 by tournament
| Tournament | Year | Games | Draws | Draw P/L | DRAW ROI% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World Cup | 1998 | 15 | 4 | -0.76 | -5.1% |
| Euro | 2000 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 42.9% |
| World Cup | 2002 | 15 | 5 | 1.26 | 8.4% |
| Euro | 2004 | 7 | 3 | 3.01 | 43.0% |
| World Cup | 2006 | 15 | 6 | 4.44 | 29.6% |
| Euro | 2008 | 7 | 3 | 3.45 | 49.3% |
| World Cup | 2010 | 15 | 4 | -1.98 | -13.2% |
| Euro | 2012 | 7 | 2 | -0.76 | -10.9% |
| World Cup | 2014 | 15 | 8 | 16.18 | 107.9% |
| Euro | 2016 | 15 | 5 | -0.29 | -1.9% |
| World Cup | 2018 | 15 | 5 | 1.46 | 9.7% |
| Euro | 2021 | 15 | 8 | 13.69 | 91.3% |
| World Cup | 2022 | 15 | 5 | 2.92 | 19.5% |
| TOTAL | 163 | 61 | 45.62 | 28.0% |
