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Mixed martial arts BETSiE Predicts Serie A: Updated February 17th 2025
Inter (71.6%) and AC Milan (51.9%) are favored to win against Genoa and Torino, respectively, on Matchday 26. Juventus (61.4%) are strong favorites against Cagliari, while Napoli (44.2%) have a slight edge over Como. Atalanta (60.3%) are expected to secure an away win at Empoli. AS Roma (62.2%) should prevail over Monza, while Lazio (58.7%) are favored against Venezia.
High-scoring matches are anticipated between Cagliari and Juventus (3.05 goals) and Inter vs. Genoa (2.71 goals). Inter lead the title race (59.3%), followed by Napoli (31.9%) and Atalanta (7.4%). Monza (92.0%) and Venezia (89.5%) face severe relegation threats.
Serie A Matchday 26 Projections: February 21st – February 24th
| HOME | AWAY | Home Win % | Draw % | Away Win % |
| AS Roma | Monza | 62.2% | 22.4% | 15.3% |
| Cagliari | Juventus | 17.80% | 20.8% | 61.4% |
| Como | Napoli | 23.60% | 32.2% | 44.2% |
| Empoli | Atalanta | 14.90% | 24.8% | 60.3% |
| Inter | Genoa | 71.60% | 18.5% | 9.8% |
| Lecce | Udinese | 30.4% | 29.9% | 39.7% |
| Parma | Bologna | 25.5% | 25.6% | 48.9% |
| Torino | AC Milan | 20.3% | 27.8% | 51.9% |
| Venezia | Lazio | 18.5% | 22.8% | 58.7% |
| Verona | Fiorentina | 21.5% | 26.1% | 52.4% |
Projected goal totals: February 21st – February 24th
| HOME | AWAY | HGF | AGF | GD | GT |
| AS Roma | Monza | 1.81 | 0.76 | 1.04 | 2.57 |
| Cagliari | Juventus | 1 | 2.04 | -1.04 | 3.05 |
| Como | Napoli | 0.7 | 1.08 | -0.38 | 1.79 |
| Empoli | Atalanta | 0.65 | 1.6 | -0.95 | 2.24 |
| Inter | Genoa | 2.09 | 0.62 | 1.47 | 2.71 |
| Lecce | Udinese | 0.95 | 1.13 | -0.18 | 2.08 |
| Parma | Bologna | 1.03 | 1.54 | -0.5 | 2.57 |
| Torino | AC Milan | 0.75 | 1.38 | -0.63 | 2.12 |
| Venezia | Lazio | 0.9 | 1.81 | -0.9 | 2.71 |
| Verona | Fiorentina | 0.86 | 1.51 | -0.65 | 2.37 |
Projected league table
| Position | Club | Games | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Points |
| 1 | Inter | 38 | 24.3 | 8.7 | 5.0 | 83.2 | 34.0 | 49.2 | 81.5 |
| 2 | Napoli | 38 | 23.7 | 8.7 | 5.6 | 58.0 | 27.9 | 30.1 | 79.7 |
| 3 | Atalanta | 38 | 22.0 | 9.1 | 6.9 | 74.9 | 37.4 | 37.6 | 75.2 |
| 4 | Juventus | 38 | 18.6 | 15.9 | 3.5 | 65.6 | 32.6 | 33.0 | 71.6 |
| 5 | AC Milan | 38 | 18.3 | 11.6 | 8.1 | 57.3 | 36.0 | 21.3 | 66.6 |
| 6 | Lazio | 38 | 19.7 | 7.2 | 11.1 | 65.6 | 49.2 | 16.5 | 66.2 |
| 7 | Fiorentina | 38 | 17.6 | 9.5 | 10.9 | 57.7 | 40.0 | 17.7 | 62.3 |
| 8 | Bologna | 38 | 15.3 | 14.9 | 7.8 | 54.2 | 44.2 | 10.0 | 60.7 |
| 9 | AS Roma | 38 | 15.6 | 10.2 | 12.2 | 54.3 | 44.1 | 10.2 | 57.0 |
| 10 | Udinese | 38 | 12.7 | 9.5 | 15.8 | 44.7 | 54.4 | -9.7 | 47.6 |
| 11 | Genoa | 38 | 10.7 | 12.5 | 14.8 | 36.5 | 50.1 | -13.6 | 44.6 |
| 12 | Torino | 38 | 10.2 | 13.8 | 14.0 | 39.5 | 45.0 | -5.5 | 44.5 |
| 13 | Como | 38 | 10.9 | 10.6 | 16.4 | 44.7 | 53.9 | -9.1 | 43.4 |
| 14 | Cagliari | 38 | 9.8 | 10.1 | 18.1 | 41.1 | 59.6 | -18.5 | 39.6 |
| 15 | Verona | 38 | 10.3 | 5.2 | 22.5 | 38.7 | 74.3 | -35.5 | 36.1 |
| 16 | Lecce | 38 | 8.6 | 10.2 | 19.2 | 28.1 | 61.5 | -33.5 | 35.9 |
| 17 | Empoli | 38 | 7.5 | 12.7 | 17.8 | 33.6 | 54.3 | -20.7 | 35.1 |
| 18 | Parma | 38 | 7.2 | 11.1 | 19.8 | 43.5 | 67.1 | -23.6 | 32.6 |
| 19 | Venezia | 38 | 5.6 | 10.2 | 22.2 | 32.8 | 62.0 | -29.2 | 27.0 |
| 20 | Monza | 38 | 5.0 | 11.3 | 21.7 | 32.0 | 58.6 | -26.6 | 26.2 |
League finish probabilities
| Club | Win League | Top 2 Finish | Top 4 Finish | Top 6 Finish | Top Half Finish | Bottom Half Finish | Relegation |
| Inter | 59.3% | 87.7% | 99.6% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Napoli | 31.9% | 72.5% | 98.3% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Atalanta | 7.4% | 29.3% | 89.8% | 99.3% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Juventus | 1.3% | 8.5% | 69.9% | 96.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| AC Milan | 0.1% | 1.1% | 19.3% | 73.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lazio | 0.1% | 0.8% | 16.3% | 69.2% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Fiorentina | 0.0% | 0.1% | 4.1% | 35.1% | 99.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Bologna | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.4% | 21.4% | 99.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| AS Roma | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 6.0% | 98.0% | 2.0% | 0.0% |
| Udinese | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 44.6% | 55.4% | 0.0% |
| Genoa | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 18.1% | 81.9% | 0.2% |
| Torino | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 20.7% | 79.3% | 0.2% |
| Como | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 14.7% | 85.3% | 0.8% |
| Cagliari | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.1% | 96.9% | 4.6% |
| Verona | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 99.6% | 20.5% |
| Lecce | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 99.7% | 19.6% |
| Empoli | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 99.7% | 24.4% |
| Parma | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 99.9% | 48.1% |
| Venezia | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 89.5% |
| Monza | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 92.0% |
What is BETSiE?
BETSiE projects the entire Serie A season, taking into account the result of every match played so far and every match yet to be played. Upcoming match results are predicted using expected goals (xG) for and against for every club in the league.
BETSiE takes into account the following match data:
- Goals For / Against
- Shots For / Against
- Shots on Target For / Against
Not all goals, shots and shots on target are equal. Each goal, shot and shot on target has an adjusted value.
Based on the match data detailed above, expected scores are calculated for each match played. Each team is then assigned an average expected goals for and against.
Once expected goals for each club have been determined, BETSiE plugs them into the Serie A fixture and predicts scores for each upcoming game in the Serie A season and the probability of each club winning, drawing or losing each match.
Expected match points are then assigned to each team in each upcoming match. BETSiE then compiles the expected results with results of matches already played and simulates the remainder of the season 20,000 times to determine the probability of each team winning the league, finishing top 4 or being relegated.
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