Analysis | Wednesday, March 5, 2025 5:00 PM (Revised at: Tuesday, April 15, 2025 11:27 AM)

BETSiE Serie A Projections

BETSiE Serie A Projections and Table Prediction - bettingexpert

bettingexpert Educational and Data Content Editor

We’ve decided to unveil BETSiE and her Serie A projections and table prediction here at bettingexpert in a bid to help our readers sidestep whatever potholes the Italian top flight serves up throughout the 2024/25 season.

What is BETSiE? She’s bettingexpert’s in-house data projection model that takes in all sorts of different underlying metrics such as xG/xGA alongside a whole host of other secret ingredients. From there, she’ll run thousands of simulations of specific fixtures to generate match outcomes and league tables.

The Latest BETSiE Serie A Projections

For Matchday 33 of Serie A (April 19–21), Juventus (62.8%) and Napoli (68.1%) are strongly favoured away at Parma and Monza respectively. Roma (66.5%) look set to see off Verona, while Inter (50.4%) edge Bologna in one of the weekend’s tighter contests. AC Milan (42.9%) vs Atalanta is the standout clash, with a goal-heavy 2.85 total projected. Elsewhere, Fiorentina (43.5%) should have the upper hand at Cagliari, and Lazio (43.7%) are fancied at Genoa. At the bottom, Monza (100%) and Venezia (76.8%) face near-certain relegation. Inter are 77.6% likely to lift the title, with Napoli (22.2%) still in with a slim chance of chasing them down.

Projected Serie A Matchday 33 Goal Totals: April 19th – 21st

HOME	AWAY	HGF	AGF	GD	GT
AC Milan	Atalanta	1.52	1.32	0.2	2.85
AS Roma	Verona	1.79	0.63	1.16	2.43
Bologna	Inter	0.89	1.42	-0.53	2.31
Cagliari	Fiorentina	1	1.27	-0.27	2.28
Empoli	Venezia	1.37	0.9	0.47	2.27
Genoa	Lazio	0.87	1.17	-0.3	2.04
Lecce	Como	0.86	1.53	-0.67	2.39
Monza	Napoli	0.54	1.75	-1.21	2.28
Parma	Juventus	0.83	1.86	-1.03	2.69
Torino	Udinese	0.97	0.9	0.07	1.87

Serie A table prediction abbreviations: HGF: Home Goals For – AGF: Away Goals For – GD: Goal Difference – GT: Goal Total.

Serie A Matchday 33 Projections: April 19th – 21st

HOME	AWAY	Home Win %	Draw %	Away Win %
AC Milan	Atalanta	42.9%	23.6%	33.6%
AS Roma	Verona	66.50%	20.8%	12.6%
Bologna	Inter	23.90%	25.7%	50.4%
Cagliari	Fiorentina	29.70%	26.8%	43.5%
Empoli	Venezia	48.80%	26.2%	25.0%
Genoa	Lazio	27.8%	28.5%	43.7%
Lecce	Como	21.3%	24.4%	54.2%
Monza	Napoli	10.9%	21.0%	68.1%
Parma	Juventus	16.4%	20.9%	62.8%
Torino	Udinese	36.5%	30.6%	32.9%

Serie A table prediction abbreviations: Home Win %: BETSiE’s Projected Probability of Home Win – Draw %: Projected Probability of Draw – Away Win %: Projected Probability of Away Win.

BETSiE’s Projected Serie A Table Prediction

#	Club	Games	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Inter	38	24.7	9.3	4.0	82.5	35.5	47.0	83.4
2	Napoli	38	23.8	9.4	4.8	60.8	28.6	32.1	80.7
3	Atalanta	38	21.5	8.3	8.2	75.9	35.4	40.5	72.8
4	Juventus	38	18.5	15.4	4.1	59.1	34.7	24.3	70.8
5	Lazio	38	18.8	9.4	9.8	61.6	49.3	12.3	65.8
6	Bologna	38	17.1	13.7	7.2	57.5	43.8	13.6	65.0
7	AS Roma	38	17.5	10.5	10.0	54.6	38.5	16.0	63.0
8	Fiorentina	38	17.6	9.6	10.7	56.7	37.8	18.9	62.6
9	AC Milan	38	17.3	10.3	10.4	61.6	43.0	18.7	62.2
10	Udinese	38	12.9	8.6	16.5	42.0	53.3	-11.3	47.3
11	Torino	38	10.7	14.7	12.6	40.9	43.8	-2.9	46.7
12	Como	38	11.6	10.6	15.8	47.8	54.0	-6.2	45.5
13	Genoa	38	10.3	13.7	14.0	33.6	46.0	-12.4	44.6
14	Verona	38	10.5	6.5	21.0	35.3	67.8	-32.5	38.0
15	Cagliari	38	9.0	10.6	18.4	38.5	54.3	-15.8	37.6
16	Parma	38	6.2	14.3	17.5	42.4	61.7	-19.3	32.8
17	Empoli	38	6.2	13.6	18.3	30.9	57.1	-26.2	32.1
18	Lecce	38	7.1	9.4	21.5	27.6	62.2	-34.5	30.7
19	Venezia	38	5.1	13.5	19.4	29.6	53.5	-23.9	28.8
20	Monza	38	2.8	10.2	24.9	29.0	67.4	-38.3	18.7

League Finish Probabilities

Club	Win League	Top 2 Finish	Top 4 Finish	Top 6 Finish	Top Half Finish	Bottom Half Finish	Relegation
Inter	77.6%	99.4%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Napoli	22.2%	95.6%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Atalanta	0.2%	4.2%	95.3%	99.8%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Juventus	0.0%	0.8%	81.2%	97.9%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Lazio	0.0%	0.0%	10.6%	64.2%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Bologna	0.0%	0.0%	7.4%	52.4%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
AS Roma	0.0%	0.0%	2.3%	31.2%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Fiorentina	0.0%	0.0%	1.9%	28.7%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
AC Milan	0.0%	0.0%	1.4%	25.8%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Udinese	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	34.9%	65.1%	0.0%
Torino	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	35.4%	64.6%	0.0%
Como	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	19.8%	80.2%	0.0%
Genoa	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	9.8%	90.2%	0.0%
Verona	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	99.9%	1.1%
Cagliari	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	99.9%	1.1%
Parma	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	21.5%
Empoli	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	36.2%
Lecce	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	63.4%
Venezia	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	76.8%
Monza	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	100.0%

What is BETSiE and Her Serie A Projections?

BETSiE projects the entire Serie A season, taking into account the result of every match played so far and every match yet to be played. Upcoming match results are predicted using expected goals (xG) for and against for every club in the league.

BETSiE takes into account the following match data:

Goals For / Against
Shots For / Against
Shots on Target For / Against

Not all goals, shots and shots on target are equal. Each goal, shot and shot on target has an adjusted value.

Based on the match data detailed above, expected scores are calculated for each match played. Each team is then assigned an average expected goals for and against.

Once expected goals for each club have been determined, BETSiE plugs them into the Serie A fixture and predicts scores for each upcoming game in the Serie A season and the probability of each club winning, drawing or losing each match.

Expected match points are then assigned to each team in each upcoming match. BETSiE then compiles the expected results with results of matches already played and simulates the remainder of the season 20,000 times to determine the probability of each team winning the league, finishing top 4 or being relegated.

SAFER GAMBLING

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.