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Mixed martial arts BETSiE Predicts Ligue Un: Updated February 17th
PSG is set to dominate Ligue 1 with a 100% chance of winning the title. Marseille (75.6%) and Monaco (64.3%) are leading the race for Champions League spots, while Nice (38.6%) and Lille (13.0%) remain in contention. At the bottom, St Etienne (69.3%) and Montpellier (61.3%) face the highest relegation risks.
For Matchday 23, PSG (59.9%) are favorites against Lyon, while Marseille (57.7%) should overcome Auxerre. Monaco (42.3%) face a tough challenge at Lille, and Nice (69.3%) are strong favorites against Montpellier.
League Un Matchday 23 Projections: February 21st – February23rd
| HOME | AWAY | Home Win | Draw % | Away Win | |
| Auxerre | Marseille | 21.1% | 21.2% | 57.7% | |
| Le Havre | Toulouse | 25.1% | 28.5% | 46.4% | |
| Lille | Monaco | 35.0% | 22.7% | 42.3% | |
| Lyon | PSG | 19.8% | 20.3% | 59.9% | |
| Nantes | Lens | 32.5% | 26.9% | 40.6% | |
| Nice | Montpellier | 69.3% | 17.3% | 13.4% | |
| Rennes | Reims | 45.5% | 27.3% | 27.2% | |
| St Etienne | Angers | 39.9% | 24.8% | 35.3% | |
| Strasbourg | Brest | 52.8% | 21.0% | 26.2% |
Projected goal totals: February 21st – February23rd
| HOME | AWAY | HGF | AGF | GD | GT |
| Auxerre | Marseille | 1.16 | 2.04 | -0.88 | 3.19 |
| Le Havre | Toulouse | 0.87 | 1.3 | -0.42 | 2.17 |
| Lille | Monaco | 1.59 | 1.77 | -0.18 | 3.36 |
| Lyon | PSG | 1.16 | 2.14 | -0.99 | 3.3 |
| Nantes | Lens | 1.17 | 1.33 | -0.17 | 2.5 |
| Nice | Montpellier | 2.42 | 0.98 | 1.45 | 3.4 |
| Rennes | Reims | 1.37 | 0.99 | 0.38 | 2.36 |
| St Etienne | Angers | 1.5 | 1.39 | 0.1 | 2.89 |
| Strasbourg | Brest | 2.1 | 1.44 | 0.66 | 3.54 |
Projected league table
| Position | Club | Games | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD |
Points
|
| 1 | PSG | 34 | 26.2 | 6.6 | 1.1 | 93.1 | 30.1 | 63.0 | 85.3 |
| 2 | Marseille | 34 | 19.5 | 6.6 | 7.9 | 70.6 | 42.9 | 27.7 | 65.2 |
| 3 | Monaco | 34 | 19.1 | 6.4 | 8.5 | 70.2 | 43.3 | 26.9 | 63.8 |
| 4 | Nice | 34 | 17.3 | 9.4 | 7.3 | 66.8 | 42.4 | 24.4 | 61.3 |
| 5 | Lille | 34 | 15.7 | 10.6 | 7.7 | 57.2 | 38.3 | 18.9 | 57.8 |
| 6 | Lyon | 34 | 15.9 | 8.5 | 9.6 | 61.9 | 43.3 | 18.6 | 56.2 |
| 7 | Strasbourg | 34 | 14.1 | 8.5 | 11.3 | 58.2 | 51.4 | 6.9 | 51.0 |
| 8 | Lens | 34 | 13.9 | 8.9 | 11.2 | 42.1 | 37.6 | 4.5 | 50.5 |
| 9 | Brest | 34 | 14.0 | 4.7 | 15.3 | 52.2 | 58.6 | -6.4 | 46.6 |
| 10 | Toulouse | 34 | 11.8 | 9.3 | 12.9 | 38.0 | 38.2 | -0.2 | 44.7 |
| 11 | Rennes | 34 | 11.4 | 5.1 | 17.5 | 43.8 | 47.1 | -3.3 | 39.4 |
| 12 | Reims | 34 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 15.2 | 41.5 | 52.3 | -10.8 | 36.8 |
| 13 | Angers | 34 | 9.5 | 7.6 | 16.9 | 35.2 | 54.6 | -19.4 | 36.1 |
| 14 | Auxerre | 34 | 8.7 | 9.5 | 15.8 | 44.2 | 61.1 | -16.9 | 35.6 |
| 15 | Nantes | 34 | 7.6 | 11.9 | 14.4 | 39.2 | 57.6 | -18.4 | 34.8 |
| 16 | Le Havre | 34 | 7.9 | 4.7 | 21.4 | 30.6 | 64.7 | -34.1 | 28.3 |
| 17 | Montpellier | 34 | 7.4 | 5.6 | 21.0 | 36.2 | 74.3 | -38.1 | 27.7 |
| 18 | St Etienne | 34 | 7.3 | 5.3 | 21.3 | 33.3 | 76.7 | -43.4 | 27.4 |
League finish probabilities
| Club | Win League | Top 3 | Top 4 | Top 6 | Top Half | Bottom Half | Relegation |
| PSG | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marseille | 0.0% | 75.6% | 90.9% | 99.5% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Monaco | 0.0% | 64.3% | 83.9% | 98.6% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nice | 0.0% | 38.6% | 68.6% | 96.4% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lille | 0.0% | 13.0% | 30.9% | 84.2% | 99.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Lyon | 0.0% | 7.6% | 21.2% | 74.7% | 99.3% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Strasbourg | 0.0% | 0.6% | 2.4% | 21.7% | 91.0% | 9.0% | 0.0% |
| Lens | 0.0% | 0.4% | 1.7% | 18.3% | 88.5% | 11.5% | 0.0% |
| Brest | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 4.5% | 60.1% | 39.9% | 0.0% |
| Toulouse | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 2.0% | 45.7% | 54.3% | 0.0% |
| Rennes | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 9.0% | 91.0% | 0.6% |
| Reims | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.0% | 97.0% | 2.4% |
| Angers | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.5% | 98.5% | 2.5% |
| Auxerre | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 99.0% | 3.3% |
| Nantes | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 99.0% | 5.9% |
| Le Havre | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 54.7% |
| Montpellier | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 61.3% |
| St Etienne | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 69.3% |
What is BETSiE?
BETSiE projects the entire Ligue Un season, taking into account the result of every match played so far and every match yet to be played. Upcoming match results are predicted using expected goals (xG) for and against for every club in the league.
BETSiE takes into account the following match data:
- Goals For / Against
- Shots For / Against
- Shots on Target For / Against
Not all goals, shots and shots on target are equal. Each goal, shot and shot on target has an adjusted value.
Based on the match data detailed above, expected scores are calculated for each match played. Each team is then assigned an average expected goals for and against.
Once expected goals for each club have been determined, BETSiE plugs them into the Ligue Un fixture and predicts scores for each upcoming game in the Ligue Un season and the probability of each club winning, drawing or losing each match.
Expected match points are then assigned to each team in each upcoming match. BETSiE then compiles the expected results with results of matches already played and simulates the remainder of the season 20,000 times to determine the probability of each team winning the league, finishing top 4 or being relegated.
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