Analysis | Wednesday, March 5, 2025 4:48 PM (Revised at: Tuesday, April 29, 2025 9:11 AM)

BETSiE Ligue 1 Projections

BETSiE Ligue 1 Projections and Table Prediction - bettingexpert

bettingexpert Educational and Data Content Editor

We’ve decided to unveil BETSiE and her Ligue 1 projections and table prediction here at bettingexpert in a bid to aid our readers as they take on the French top flight head-on from a betting perspective throughout the 2024/25 season.

What is BETSiE? She’s bettingexpert’s in-house data projection model that takes in all sorts of different underlying metrics such as xG/xGA alongside a whole host of other secret ingredients. From there, she’ll run thousands of simulations of specific fixtures to generate match outcomes and league tables.

The Latest BETSiE Ligue 1 Projections

This weekend’s Ligue 1 fixtures promise excitement: Auxerre faces Le Havre, and the data suggests a balanced affair, giving Auxerre a 43.0% chance of securing a home victory. Brest looks strong against Montpellier, boasting a 56.1% probability of winning at home.

A key clash sees Lille hosting Marseille, where the projection model suggests near-equal chances of victory for both teams (38.2% and 38.6%, respectively). Lyon is favoured against Lens with a 57.9% chance of clinching all three points, showcasing their attacking prowess.

Nantes appears well-positioned to defeat Angers, with a 58.2% likelihood of a home win, while Nice is projected to overcome Reims with a 59.9% chance.

In a one-sided matchup, Monaco has a commanding 77.6% chance of overcoming St Etienne. Meanwhile, PSG is favoured to win at Strasbourg, boasting a 65.4% probability. Finally, Toulouse versus Rennes should be closely contested, with Toulouse having a slight edge at home.

Projected Ligue 1 Matchday 32 Goal Totals: May 2nd-4th

Home	Away	HGF	AGF	GD	GT
Auxerre	Le Havre	1.47	1.26	0.22	2.73
Brest	Montpellier	1.82	1.04	0.77	2.86
Lille	Marseille	1.45	1.46	-0.01	2.91
Lyon	Lens	2.1	1.23	0.87	3.33
Nantes	Angers	1.79	0.93	0.86	2.72
Nice	Reims	1.87	0.93	0.94	2.8
St Etienne	Monaco	1.07	3.11	-2.04	4.18
Strasbourg	PSG	1.04	2.27	-1.23	3.31
Toulouse	Rennes	1.28	1.13	0.15	2.41

Ligue 1 table prediction abbreviations: HGF: Home Goals For – AGF: Away Goals For – GD: Goal Difference – GT: Goal Total.

Ligue 1 Matchday 32 Projections: May 2nd-4th

Home	Away	Home Win %	Draw %	Away Win %
Auxerre	Le Havre	43.0%	24.0%	33.0%
Brest	Montpellier	56.1%	21.7%	22.2%
Lille	Marseille	38.2%	23.3%	38.6%
Lyon	Lens	57.9%	19.5%	22.6%
Nantes	Angers	58.2%	21.9%	20.0%
Nice	Reims	59.9%	21.1%	19.0%
St Etienne	Monaco	10.3%	12.1%	77.6%
Strasbourg	PSG	16.8%	17.8%	65.4%
Toulouse	Rennes	40.7%	26.1%	33.3%

Ligue 1 table prediction abbreviations: Home Win %: BETSiE’s Projected Probability of Home Win – Draw %: Projected Probability of Draw – Away Win %: Projected Probability of Away Win.

BETSiE’s Projected Ligue 1 Table Prediction

#	Club	Games	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	pts
1	PSG	34	26.3	6.4	1.3	92.2	33.4	58.8	85.3
2	Marseille	34	19.6	4.7	9.8	71.6	46.7	24.9	63.3
3	Monaco	34	18.0	7.5	8.5	65.8	39.7	26.1	61.5
4	Lille	34	17.4	8.7	7.9	53.7	35.7	18.1	60.9
5	Nice	34	16.5	9.7	7.8	64.0	42.4	21.6	59.2
6	Lyon	34	17.5	6.5	9.9	67.8	46.4	21.4	59.1
7	Strasbourg	34	16.3	9.6	8.1	55.8	42.4	13.5	58.6
8	Brest	34	14.1	5.7	14.2	53.2	57.4	-4.1	48.1
9	Lens	34	13.7	6.6	13.6	38.6	42.9	-4.3	47.8
10	Auxerre	34	11.8	8.6	13.6	48.3	50.8	-2.6	44.0
11	Rennes	34	12.9	2.7	18.3	49.6	48.5	1.2	41.6
12	Toulouse	34	10.4	8.7	14.9	42.6	42.4	0.2	40.0
13	Nantes	34	8.5	11.7	13.8	39.9	53.2	-13.3	37.3
14	Reims	34	8.9	9.7	15.4	35.7	46.8	-11.1	36.4
15	Angers	34	8.5	6.6	18.8	31.8	55.8	-24.0	32.3
16	Le Havre	34	8.7	4.6	20.7	37.4	70.8	-33.4	30.7
17	St Etienne	34	7.6	6.6	19.8	37.3	77.7	-40.4	29.3
18	Montpellier	34	4.5	4.6	24.9	24.9	77.3	-52.4	18.2

Ligue 1 Finish Probabilities

Club	Win League	Top 3	Top 4	Top 6	Top Half	Bottom Half	Relegation
PSG	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Marseille	0.0%	77.9%	90.8%	99.3%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Monaco	0.0%	57.3%	75.9%	95.7%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Lille	0.0%	32.7%	56.0%	90.5%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Nice	0.0%	13.5%	33.0%	78.1%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Lyon	0.0%	14.1%	30.7%	78.9%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Strasbourg	0.0%	4.5%	13.7%	57.5%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Brest	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	89.0%	11.0%	0.0%
Lens	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	88.9%	11.1%	0.0%
Auxerre	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	17.9%	82.1%	0.0%
Rennes	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	3.9%	96.1%	0.0%
Toulouse	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%	99.7%	0.0%
Nantes	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%
Reims	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%
Angers	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	4.1%
Le Havre	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	23.7%
St Etienne	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	72.2%
Montpellier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	100.0%

What is BETSiE?

BETSiE projects the entire Ligue 1 season, taking into account the result of every match played so far and every match yet to be played. Upcoming match results are predicted using expected goals (xG) for and against for every club in the league.

BETSiE takes into account the following match data:

Goals For / Against
Shots For / Against
Shots on Target For / Against

Not all goals, shots and shots on target are equal. Each goal, shot and shot on target has an adjusted value.

Based on the match data detailed above, expected scores are calculated for each match played. Each team is then assigned an average expected goals for and against.

Once expected goals for each club have been determined, BETSiE plugs them into the Ligue Un fixture and predicts scores for each upcoming game in the Ligue Un season and the probability of each club winning, drawing or losing each match.

Expected match points are then assigned to each team in each upcoming match. BETSiE then compiles the expected results with results of matches already played and simulates the remainder of the season 20,000 times to determine the probability of each team winning the league, finishing top 4 or being relegated.

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