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Boxing BETSiE Predicts Ligue Un: Updated February 26th 2024
PSG’s grip of the Ligue Un title remains despite their 1-1 draw at home to Rennes on Sunday. PSG are at 98.8% to claim yet another French title with Brest at the long odds of 0.9%. While PSG and Brest look set for Champions League play next season, the remaining two places in the top 4 are wide open. Monaco at 58.9% is favoured over Nice at 55.9% while Lille remains well in the hunt at 43.7%. Lens and Marseille still hold realistic chances of a top 4 finish, with Lens at 21.3% and Marseille at 17.2%. While Metz and Clermont look set for Ligue 2 action next season, Lorient is favoured to feature in the relegation playoff.
In this article:
- BETSiE Best Bets
- Projected Ligue Un Table
- Ligue Un Season Probabilities
- Match Expected Goals
- Match 1X2 Probabilities
- Asian Handicaps
- Goals Totals
- Both Teams To Score
- What is BETSiE?
BETSIE’S BEST BETS
| SELECTION | ODDS | BOOKMAKER |
|---|---|---|
| No Ligue Un Best Bets this Week |
BETSiE’S BEST BETS – ALL LEAGUES
- England Premier League BETSiE Projections
- England Championship BETSiE Projections
- England League One BETSiE Projections
- England League Two BETSiE Projections
- German Bundesliga BETSiE Projections
- Netherlands Eredivisie BETSiE Projections
- Spain La Liga BETSiE Projecitons
- Italy Serie A BETSiE Projections
| LEAGUE | DATE | SELECTION | ODDS | BOOKMAKER |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Championship | March 2 | Hull +0 (AH) at Preston | 1.95 | bet365 |
| Championship | March 2 | Swansea +0 (AH) vs Blackburn | 1.81 | William Hill |
| Championship | March 2 | Bristol City vs Cardiff Under 2.25 goals | 1.85 | bet365 |
| Championship | March 2 | Huddersfield vs Leeds Under 2.75 goals | 1.86 | Pinnacle |
| Championship | March 2 | Preston vs Hull Under 2.5 goals | 1.81 | Pinnacle |
| Premier League | March 2 | Brentford +0.25 (AH) vs Chelsea | 2.01 | bet365 |
| Premier League | March 2 | Everton -0.5 (AH) vs West Ham | 2.04 | Pinnacle |
| Premier League | March 2 | Nottingham Forest +1 (AH) vs Liverpool | 2.04 | Pinnacle |
| Premier League | March 2 | Newcastle vs Wolverhampton Over 3 goals | 2.01 | bet365 |
| League One | March 2 | Cambridge +1 (AH) at Bolton | 1.83 | William Hill |
| League One | March 2 | Port Vale +1 (AH) at Derby | 2.06 | Pinnacle |
| League One | March 2 | Fleetwood +0 (AH) vs Wigan | 1.83 | bet365 |
| League One | March 2 | Shrewsbury +0.5 (AH) vs Blackpool | 1.95 | Pinnacle |
| League Two | March 2 | Accrington +1 (AH) at Wrexham | 1.95 | Pinnacle |
| Serie A | March 3 | Juventus +0.25 (AH) at Napoli | 1.85 | Pinnacle |
Championship odds as at 10am 26th February 2024. Odds may now differ
Premier League odds correct as at 10am 207h February 2024. Odds may now differ
League One, League Two odds correct as at 10am 28th February 2024. Odds may now differ.
Serie A odds correct as at 10am 29th February 2024. Odds may now differ.
Projected Ligue Un Table
Updated: 26th February 2024
| Position | Club | Games | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris SG | 34 | 22.6 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 79.0 | 32.6 | 46.4 | 75.8 |
| 2 | Brest | 34 | 17.7 | 9.7 | 6.6 | 51.3 | 28.6 | 22.7 | 62.8 |
| 3 | Monaco | 34 | 16.8 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 60.9 | 48.2 | 12.7 | 57.9 |
| 4 | Nice | 34 | 16.0 | 9.8 | 8.2 | 37.6 | 26.8 | 10.8 | 57.7 |
| 5 | Lille | 34 | 15.0 | 10.8 | 8.1 | 49.0 | 31.9 | 17.1 | 55.9 |
| 6 | Lens | 34 | 15.0 | 8.5 | 10.5 | 48.5 | 38.7 | 9.8 | 53.6 |
| 7 | Marseille | 34 | 13.6 | 11.7 | 8.7 | 50.8 | 36.1 | 14.7 | 52.6 |
| 8 | Rennes | 34 | 13.3 | 10.9 | 9.9 | 49.5 | 40.7 | 8.8 | 50.6 |
| 9 | Reims | 34 | 14.1 | 6.7 | 13.2 | 44.9 | 46.2 | -1.2 | 49.1 |
| 10 | Lyon | 34 | 11.9 | 6.6 | 15.5 | 40.8 | 52.2 | -11.4 | 42.4 |
| 11 | Toulouse | 34 | 9.6 | 10.7 | 13.7 | 38.7 | 47.5 | -8.8 | 39.4 |
| 12 | Montpellier | 34 | 9.3 | 10.6 | 14.1 | 41.3 | 46.9 | -5.6 | 38.5 |
| 13 | Strasbourg | 34 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 14.6 | 35.7 | 50.0 | -14.4 | 38.4 |
| 14 | Nantes | 34 | 10.2 | 6.7 | 17.1 | 35.2 | 50.4 | -15.2 | 37.3 |
| 15 | Le Havre | 34 | 8.2 | 11.6 | 14.2 | 36.6 | 47.7 | -11.0 | 36.1 |
| 16 | Lorient | 34 | 7.3 | 9.5 | 17.3 | 41.5 | 63.8 | -22.3 | 31.3 |
| 17 | Clermont | 34 | 5.8 | 10.5 | 17.7 | 28.6 | 55.8 | -27.2 | 28.0 |
| 18 | Metz | 34 | 6.3 | 7.8 | 19.9 | 28.5 | 54.4 | -25.9 | 26.7 |
Ligue Un Season Probabilities
| Club | Win League | Top 3 Finish | Top 4 Finish | Top 5 Finish | Top Half Finish | Bottom Half Finish | Relegation | Relegation Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris SG | 98.8% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brest | 0.9% | 82.5% | 91.9% | 96.6% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Monaco | 0.1% | 37.1% | 58.9% | 76.0% | 99.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nice | 0.1% | 33.8% | 55.6% | 72.9% | 99.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lille | 0.0% | 25.2% | 43.7% | 61.7% | 99.3% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lens | 0.0% | 9.9% | 21.3% | 36.9% | 97.5% | 2.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marseille | 0.0% | 7.2% | 17.2% | 31.7% | 96.5% | 3.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Rennes | 0.0% | 3.2% | 8.1% | 16.4% | 91.0% | 9.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Reims | 0.0% | 1.1% | 3.2% | 7.5% | 80.9% | 19.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lyon | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 17.4% | 82.6% | 0.2% | 1.1% |
| Toulouse | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.1% | 93.9% | 1.1% | 3.6% |
| Montpellier | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.6% | 95.4% | 1.8% | 5.3% |
| Strasbourg | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.9% | 96.1% | 1.8% | 5.9% |
| Nantes | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.0% | 98.0% | 2.8% | 8.6% |
| Le Havre | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.2% | 98.8% | 4.6% | 11.1% |
| Lorient | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 33.6% | 35.3% |
| Clermont | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 72.1% | 17.2% |
| Metz | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 82.0% | 11.8% |
Upcoming matches: March 1st, 2nd, 3rd
Match Expected Goals
| Home | Away | Home | Away | Margin | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brest | Le Havre | 1.88 | 0.77 | 1.11 | 2.66 |
| Clermont | Marseille | 0.87 | 1.87 | -0.99 | 2.74 |
| Lyon | Lens | 1.61 | 1.69 | -0.07 | 3.3 |
| Monaco | Paris SG | 1.55 | 1.94 | -0.39 | 3.49 |
| Montpellier | Strasbourg | 1.6 | 1.11 | 0.5 | 2.71 |
| Nantes | Metz | 1.44 | 0.84 | 0.6 | 2.29 |
| Reims | Lille | 1.24 | 1.35 | -0.11 | 2.58 |
| Rennes | Lorient | 1.78 | 0.84 | 0.94 | 2.61 |
| Toulouse | Nice | 1.03 | 1.39 | -0.36 | 2.42 |
Match 1X2 Probabilities
| Home | Away | Home % | Draw % | Away % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brest | Le Havre | 63.69% | 21.61% | 14.70% |
| Clermont | Marseille | 17.14% | 22.16% | 60.70% |
| Lyon | Lens | 36.92% | 23.01% | 40.07% |
| Monaco | Paris SG | 31.03% | 21.92% | 47.06% |
| Montpellier | Strasbourg | 48.86% | 24.84% | 26.30% |
| Nantes | Metz | 51.19% | 26.84% | 21.97% |
| Reims | Lille | 34.21% | 26.44% | 39.35% |
| Rennes | Lorient | 59.64% | 23.01% | 17.35% |
| Toulouse | Nice | 27.78% | 26.98% | 45.24% |
Asian Handicaps
| Home | Away | Home AH | Away AH | Home AH % | Away AH % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brest | Le Havre | -0.75 | 0.75 | 57.48% | 42.52% |
| Clermont | Marseille | 0.5 | -0.5 | 39.30% | 60.70% |
| Lyon | Lens | 0 | 0 | 47.96% | 52.04% |
| Monaco | Paris SG | 0.5 | -0.5 | 52.94% | 47.06% |
| Montpellier | Strasbourg | -0.5 | 0.5 | 48.86% | 51.14% |
| Nantes | Metz | -0.5 | 0.5 | 51.19% | 48.81% |
| Reims | Lille | 0 | 0 | 46.50% | 53.50% |
| Rennes | Lorient | -1.25 | 1.25 | 40.06% | 59.94% |
| Toulouse | Nice | 0.25 | -0.25 | 46.41% | 53.59% |
Goal Totals
| Home | Away | O/U Line | Over % | Under % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brest | Le Havre | 2.5 | 49.58% | 50.42% |
| Clermont | Marseille | 2.5 | 51.61% | 48.39% |
| Lyon | Lens | 2.5 | 64.05% | 35.95% |
| Monaco | Paris SG | 3 | 58.75% | 41.25% |
| Montpellier | Strasbourg | 2.5 | 50.96% | 49.04% |
| Nantes | Metz | 2.25 | 47.28% | 52.72% |
| Reims | Lille | 2.5 | 47.74% | 52.26% |
| Rennes | Lorient | 2.75 | 41.32% | 58.68% |
| Toulouse | Nice | 2.25 | 51.14% | 48.86% |
Both Teams To Score
| Home | Away | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brest | Le Havre | 45.66% | 54.34% |
| Clermont | Marseille | 49.28% | 50.72% |
| Lyon | Lens | 65.24% | 34.76% |
| Monaco | Paris SG | 67.40% | 32.60% |
| Montpellier | Strasbourg | 53.54% | 46.46% |
| Nantes | Metz | 43.52% | 56.48% |
| Reims | Lille | 52.51% | 47.49% |
| Rennes | Lorient | 47.11% | 52.89% |
| Toulouse | Nice | 48.21% | 51.79% |
What is BETSiE?
BETSiE projects the entire Ligue Un season, taking into account the result of every match played so far and every match yet to be played. Upcoming match results are predicted using expected goals (xG) for and against for every club in the league.
BETSiE takes into account the following match data:
- Goals For / Against
- Shots For / Against
- Shots on Target For / Against
Not all goals, shots and shots on target are equal. Each goal, shot and shot on target has an adjusted value.
Based on the match data detailed above, expected scores are calculated for each match played. Each team is then assigned an average expected goals for and against.
Once expected goals for each club have been determined, BETSiE plugs them into the Ligue Un fixture and predicts scores for each upcoming game in the Ligue Un season and the probability of each club winning, drawing or losing each match.
Expected match points are then assigned to each team in each upcoming match. BETSiE then compiles the expected results with results of matches already played and simulates the remainder of the season 20,000 times to determine the probability of each team winning the league, finishing top 4 or being relegated.
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