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Analysis | Monday, October 16, 2023 1:01 PM (Revised at: Tuesday, December 17, 2024 10:44 AM)

BETSiE Predicts La Liga: Updated 16. December 2024

BETSiE Predicts La Liga: Updated 16. December 2024
PRESSINPHOTO SPORTS AGENCY / Alamy Stock Photo - BETSiE La Liga Prediction

Real Madrid lead the La Liga title race with a 52% chance of winning, according to projections. Barcelona sit second with a 33.9% chance, keeping their hopes alive after a win over Leganes. Atletico Madrid, at 14%, while Athletic Bilbao’s faint title chances stand at just 0.1%.

In the race for the top four, Atletico Madrid are strong favorites at 98.5%, with Athletic Bilbao at 55.4%. Villarreal (26%) and Girona (3.5%) are still in contention but face tough competition.

Upcoming matches see Villarreal as 61.9% favorites at home against Rayo Vallecano, while Espanyol host Valencia in a closer contest, with the visitors holding a slight edge at 37.89%.


La Liga Projections: December 18th

HOME AWAY Home Win Draw Away Win
Espanyol Valencia 32.80% 29.31% 37.89%
Villarreal Vallecano 61.88% 21.97% 16.15%

La Liga Projected goal totals: December 18th

HOME AWAY HGF AGF GD GT
Espanyol Valencia 1.04 1.14 -0.1 2.18
Villarreal Vallecano 1.87 0.83 1.04 2.7

Projected league table

Position Club Games W D L GF GA GD Points
1 Real Madrid 38 24.9 8.1 4.9 79.5 31.8 47.7 82.9
2 Barcelona 38 25.0 5.5 7.5 98.7 42.5 56.2 80.6
3 Atl. Madrid 38 22.5 10.1 5.5 64.8 29.3 35.5 77.5
4 Ath Bilbao 38 18.1 11.2 8.7 54.0 35.6 18.4 65.6
5 Villarreal 38 17.3 10.1 10.6 63.2 53.6 9.6 62.1
6 Sociedad 38 16.3 9.5 12.2 43.4 32.1 11.4 58.4
7 Betis 38 15.0 11.1 11.9 50.9 47.7 3.3 56.1
8 Girona 38 15.2 9.3 13.5 52.3 48.7 3.6 55.0
9 Mallorca 38 14.2 8.5 15.3 37.2 45.3 -8.2 51.0
10 Osasuna 38 11.9 12.6 13.5 42.5 53.8 -11.3 48.4
11 Celta 38 13.2 8.2 16.5 50.2 56.9 -6.7 47.9
12 Sevilla 38 12.8 9.4 15.8 41.3 51.0 -9.8 47.8
13 Vallecano 38 11.4 10.9 15.7 39.5 48.5 -9.0 45.1
14 Las Palmas 38 10.8 9.2 17.9 43.8 58.8 -14.9 41.7
15 Getafe 38 9.0 13.2 15.8 29.6 38.3 -8.8 40.1
16 Alaves 38 10.1 9.5 18.4 40.6 57.2 -16.7 39.9
17 Valencia 38 9.9 10.1 18.0 38.3 51.3 -13.0 39.8
18 Leganes 38 8.5 11.3 18.2 32.0 55.5 -23.5 36.7
19 Espanyol 38 9.6 7.7 20.7 35.8 60.2 -24.4 36.5
20 Valladolid 38 7.5 7.8 22.7 31.6 71.0 -39.4 30.3

League finish probabilities

Club Win League Top 2 Top 4 Top 6 Top Half Bottom Half Relegation
Real Madrid 52.0% 84.5% 99.9% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Barcelona 33.9% 72.4% 99.7% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Atl. Madrid 14.0% 41.6% 98.5% 99.9% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ath Bilbao 0.1% 1.1% 55.4% 91.2% 99.8% 0.2% 0.0%
Villarreal 0.0% 0.3% 26.0% 75.0% 98.4% 1.6% 0.0%
Sociedad 0.0% 0.0% 10.9% 52.9% 95.1% 4.9% 0.0%
Betis 0.0% 0.0% 4.9% 33.3% 88.4% 11.6% 0.0%
Girona 0.0% 0.0% 3.5% 27.5% 85.2% 14.8% 0.1%
Mallorca 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 7.4% 61.1% 39.0% 0.3%
Osasuna 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 3.7% 41.1% 58.9% 1.6%
Celta 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 3.8% 40.6% 59.4% 2.1%
Sevilla 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 3.0% 37.9% 62.1% 2.4%
Vallecano 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.5% 23.3% 76.7% 6.1%
Las Palmas 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 8.9% 91.1% 16.9%
Getafe 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 6.2% 93.8% 23.4%
Alaves 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 5.3% 94.7% 26.8%
Valencia 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 5.9% 94.1% 27.3%
Leganes 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% 98.8% 50.9%
Espanyol 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 98.4% 52.5%
Valladolid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 89.6%

What is BETSiE?

BETSiE projects the entire La Liga season, taking into account the result of every match played so far and every match yet to be played. Upcoming match results are predicted using expected goals (xG) for and against for every club in the league.

BETSiE takes into account the following match data:

  • Goals For / Against
  • Shots For / Against
  • Shots on Target For / Against

Not all goals, shots and shots on target are equal. Each goal, shot and shot on target has an adjusted value.

Based on the match data detailed above, expected scores are calculated for each match played. Each team is then assigned an average expected goals for and against.

Once expected goals for each club have been determined, BETSiE plugs them into the La Liga fixture and predicts scores for each upcoming game in the La Liga season and the probability of each club winning, drawing or losing each match.

Expected match points are then assigned to each team in each upcoming match. BETSiE then compiles the expected results with results of matches already played and simulates the remainder of the season 20,000 times to determine the probability of each team winning the league, finishing top 4 or being relegated.


SAFER GAMBLING

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.

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