BETSiE Predicts La Liga: Updated 16. December 2024
Real Madrid lead the La Liga title race with a 52% chance of winning, according to projections. Barcelona sit second with a 33.9% chance, keeping their hopes alive after a win over Leganes. Atletico Madrid, at 14%, while Athletic Bilbao’s faint title chances stand at just 0.1%.
In the race for the top four, Atletico Madrid are strong favorites at 98.5%, with Athletic Bilbao at 55.4%. Villarreal (26%) and Girona (3.5%) are still in contention but face tough competition.
Upcoming matches see Villarreal as 61.9% favorites at home against Rayo Vallecano, while Espanyol host Valencia in a closer contest, with the visitors holding a slight edge at 37.89%.
La Liga Projections: December 18th
HOME | AWAY | Home Win | Draw | Away Win |
Espanyol | Valencia | 32.80% | 29.31% | 37.89% |
Villarreal | Vallecano | 61.88% | 21.97% | 16.15% |
La Liga Projected goal totals: December 18th
HOME | AWAY | HGF | AGF | GD | GT |
Espanyol | Valencia | 1.04 | 1.14 | -0.1 | 2.18 |
Villarreal | Vallecano | 1.87 | 0.83 | 1.04 | 2.7 |
Projected league table
Position | Club | Games | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Points |
1 | Real Madrid | 38 | 24.9 | 8.1 | 4.9 | 79.5 | 31.8 | 47.7 | 82.9 |
2 | Barcelona | 38 | 25.0 | 5.5 | 7.5 | 98.7 | 42.5 | 56.2 | 80.6 |
3 | Atl. Madrid | 38 | 22.5 | 10.1 | 5.5 | 64.8 | 29.3 | 35.5 | 77.5 |
4 | Ath Bilbao | 38 | 18.1 | 11.2 | 8.7 | 54.0 | 35.6 | 18.4 | 65.6 |
5 | Villarreal | 38 | 17.3 | 10.1 | 10.6 | 63.2 | 53.6 | 9.6 | 62.1 |
6 | Sociedad | 38 | 16.3 | 9.5 | 12.2 | 43.4 | 32.1 | 11.4 | 58.4 |
7 | Betis | 38 | 15.0 | 11.1 | 11.9 | 50.9 | 47.7 | 3.3 | 56.1 |
8 | Girona | 38 | 15.2 | 9.3 | 13.5 | 52.3 | 48.7 | 3.6 | 55.0 |
9 | Mallorca | 38 | 14.2 | 8.5 | 15.3 | 37.2 | 45.3 | -8.2 | 51.0 |
10 | Osasuna | 38 | 11.9 | 12.6 | 13.5 | 42.5 | 53.8 | -11.3 | 48.4 |
11 | Celta | 38 | 13.2 | 8.2 | 16.5 | 50.2 | 56.9 | -6.7 | 47.9 |
12 | Sevilla | 38 | 12.8 | 9.4 | 15.8 | 41.3 | 51.0 | -9.8 | 47.8 |
13 | Vallecano | 38 | 11.4 | 10.9 | 15.7 | 39.5 | 48.5 | -9.0 | 45.1 |
14 | Las Palmas | 38 | 10.8 | 9.2 | 17.9 | 43.8 | 58.8 | -14.9 | 41.7 |
15 | Getafe | 38 | 9.0 | 13.2 | 15.8 | 29.6 | 38.3 | -8.8 | 40.1 |
16 | Alaves | 38 | 10.1 | 9.5 | 18.4 | 40.6 | 57.2 | -16.7 | 39.9 |
17 | Valencia | 38 | 9.9 | 10.1 | 18.0 | 38.3 | 51.3 | -13.0 | 39.8 |
18 | Leganes | 38 | 8.5 | 11.3 | 18.2 | 32.0 | 55.5 | -23.5 | 36.7 |
19 | Espanyol | 38 | 9.6 | 7.7 | 20.7 | 35.8 | 60.2 | -24.4 | 36.5 |
20 | Valladolid | 38 | 7.5 | 7.8 | 22.7 | 31.6 | 71.0 | -39.4 | 30.3 |
League finish probabilities
Club | Win League | Top 2 | Top 4 | Top 6 | Top Half | Bottom Half | Relegation |
Real Madrid | 52.0% | 84.5% | 99.9% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Barcelona | 33.9% | 72.4% | 99.7% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Atl. Madrid | 14.0% | 41.6% | 98.5% | 99.9% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Ath Bilbao | 0.1% | 1.1% | 55.4% | 91.2% | 99.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
Villarreal | 0.0% | 0.3% | 26.0% | 75.0% | 98.4% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
Sociedad | 0.0% | 0.0% | 10.9% | 52.9% | 95.1% | 4.9% | 0.0% |
Betis | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.9% | 33.3% | 88.4% | 11.6% | 0.0% |
Girona | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.5% | 27.5% | 85.2% | 14.8% | 0.1% |
Mallorca | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 7.4% | 61.1% | 39.0% | 0.3% |
Osasuna | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 3.7% | 41.1% | 58.9% | 1.6% |
Celta | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 3.8% | 40.6% | 59.4% | 2.1% |
Sevilla | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 3.0% | 37.9% | 62.1% | 2.4% |
Vallecano | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 1.5% | 23.3% | 76.7% | 6.1% |
Las Palmas | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 8.9% | 91.1% | 16.9% |
Getafe | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 6.2% | 93.8% | 23.4% |
Alaves | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 5.3% | 94.7% | 26.8% |
Valencia | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 5.9% | 94.1% | 27.3% |
Leganes | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.2% | 98.8% | 50.9% |
Espanyol | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.6% | 98.4% | 52.5% |
Valladolid | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 89.6% |
What is BETSiE?
BETSiE projects the entire La Liga season, taking into account the result of every match played so far and every match yet to be played. Upcoming match results are predicted using expected goals (xG) for and against for every club in the league.
BETSiE takes into account the following match data:
- Goals For / Against
- Shots For / Against
- Shots on Target For / Against
Not all goals, shots and shots on target are equal. Each goal, shot and shot on target has an adjusted value.
Based on the match data detailed above, expected scores are calculated for each match played. Each team is then assigned an average expected goals for and against.
Once expected goals for each club have been determined, BETSiE plugs them into the La Liga fixture and predicts scores for each upcoming game in the La Liga season and the probability of each club winning, drawing or losing each match.
Expected match points are then assigned to each team in each upcoming match. BETSiE then compiles the expected results with results of matches already played and simulates the remainder of the season 20,000 times to determine the probability of each team winning the league, finishing top 4 or being relegated.
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